3 lucky pitchers

1. Joe Saunders, LAA – Saunders has been a lucky pitcher for a while which makes me wonder whether he does something that is accounted for by the statistics I’m looking at, but I don’t think Saunders is that special. He still doesn’t have great control (although this has been an area of improvement), he still doesn’t strike anyone out, and he still gives up too many homeruns. So how is his ERA under 3.5? A .249 BABIP, not sustainable. His ERA should be closer to 5 than 3. If you’ve picked him up because of his hot start sell high. 

2. Matt Cain, SFG - Cain’s 2009 looks like a breakout to some. It’s not. That 2.40 ERA is highly misleading. Cain has a poor K rate AND a poor BB rate, and his k/bb rate is in decline. He isn’t a groundball pitcher – in fact his GB% has been among the worst in the league for years. This is a guy in decline, not a breakout candidate. 

3. Kevin Millwood, TEX - It pains me to say this because I was a big proponent of his coming into the season, and I’d like to say I was right and that this success is just what I was predicting, but it’s not. He has just been very, very lucky. His BB rate is still very good, but that’s where his skill set ends. His K rate has plummeted from 6.67 last year to 4.75 this season, leaving his K/BB rate under 2. Millwood also has just an average GB% and HR rate. The only hope here is that his contact% is actually about where it was last year, and he hasn’t had a huge drop in velocity, so his K rate should rebound. He’s pitching ok, not nearly as bad as the above guys, but don’t buy the breakout. He deserves the luck though after the past couple of years.