How good is Cole Hamels really?

Earlier this season I traded one of my favorite pitchers in baseball, Cole Hamels. To tell you the truth, it had more to do with him loosing me a bet than anything else but I was discourage by his low strikeout rate and the fact that he had been a little lucky. The guy I traded him for, John Smoltz, was hurt within a week and Hamels took off after that. I’m probably going to be posting an early look at the top 5 pitchers for next season, and to tell you the truth I have no idea who is going to be up there. After his great start today, I decided to take a look and Hamels and decide whether he should be considered or not. 

The first thing I noticed was Cole Hamels innings total. About a month ago I posted that Hamels was around 180 innings and that the Phillies should attempt to limit him in September to keep him around 200-210 innings going into the playoffs. They kept pitching him with no regard for his workload and now he is up to 227 with potentially the entire month of October ahead of him. Last season he pitched 183 innings and the year before that 132. That means for the second straight season, he substantially exceeded the limit of 30 innings more than the year before, something most sabermetric experts will agree on. This is a major red flag for any fantasy owner and can not be dismissed, especially considering his history of shoulder injuries. I can’t really say what will happen next year, no one can, but I would not be surprised if he got hurt and am almost sure his innings will go down, potentially because of fatigue.

The next warning sign is his strikeouts. In his rookie season he had a strikeout rate of almost 10. As his innings have increased, his strikeout rate has gone way down. He now has a strikeout rate of 7.8, thats more than 2 less strikeouts every 9 innings. Fantasy leaguers have not been hurt yet, because Hamels has increased his innings enough to hide this fact, however when you are throwing 230 innings and can’t 200 strikeouts your status as a strikeout pitcher may be in danger. For example, if Hamels does spend a couple of weeks on the DL and his innings drop to 190, his strikeouts could go all the way down to 164not nearly at his 2006 level or the level of similar “aces” such as CC Sabathia or Rich Harden. If he is more rested however, his strikeouts could actually go up (explored in greater detail below) if he is throwing harder and his breaking balls are breaking sharper. You never like to see diminishing strikeouts in 25 year old pitchers, but this could be linked to his inning levels and hopefully can be corrected.

Although Hamels has improved since his call up in 06, his stats since last season are no better and in some cases much worse. In 2006 his BB rate was at 3.1, however last year he made great strides in control lowering that to 2.1. It has stayed at 2.1 this season, and parred with a lower K rate his K/BB rate has gone way down. This trend is reflected in his tRA numbers over the past 3 years. When he came up, his tRA was slightly over 4.While his strikeouts were up, his walks were way to high. In 2007, he fixed those control issues, and maintained a very high K rate leading to a tRA of 3.64. In 2008, it has gone back up to 3.78.

Although Hamels’ numbers are actually better in the second half of 2008 than the first, my fatigue theory may still be valid. In the first half, Hamels pitched about 13 more innings, and both of his 120 pitch outings came in the first half. When the Phillies eased up a little, Hamels was lights out through the final month. His strikeouts were not much better, but his control was. Although this might look like a good sign, it may hint at a permanent K/9 decrees.

The bottom line here is that Hamels is not the pitcher he was last year. If his innings go down next season, he will probably eventually revert back to his 2007 level, however because of what we saw in the second half, there in no guarantee. It is unlikely that Hamels will crack the top 5 this year, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be there at the end.