After looking at breakout pitchers on Monday, we continue our coverage of the 2010 fantasy season by getting an early peak at next year’s top catchers. Instead of doing a top-10 or top-15, I’m going to break this into three tiers. After these three tiers, you can probably just take your pick, as no one really stands out. Full positional rankings will be out this winter.
The catcher position has become very interesting over the past five months. While last year there was only one real elite option, and a lot of top level depth, we might have just the opposite situation going into 2010. Joe Mauer enjoyed what could be described as a breakout season, Victor Martinez bounced back putting him firmly in the top-3, Brian McCann was, well, Brian McCann. Add to that Mike Napoli who had another good season, is currently hitting about .295, and still has tons of power, and that’s your top-4 catchers. Past that though… it’s a crap shoot. Ryan Doumit, Geovany Soto, and Russell Martin, my fourth, fifth, and sixth ranked catchers last season, each had a massive drop off. Martin’s almost 300 games caught over a two year span caught up to him, and both Doumit and Soto got hurt. Matt Wieters had a difficult debut to say the least. Finally Jorge Posada will be 39 in 2010, meaning counting on him could be a bad idea. Any of these guys could put up elite fantasy production from the catchers position. But they all have major question marks.
If I had to identify a big sleeper this season, ironically enough, it would probably be Matt Wieters. He didn’t have a great first season, but he was ok. Based on his minor league production, with a year under his belt, this is the kind of guy who could hit .285 with 15 home runs. And his upside is much higher than that. In keeper leagues, he’s probably a top-5 catcher. In one season leagues, I’d consider taking him above several more established options. Either way, he’s a “post hype sleeper” if I’ve ever seen one. He may get over hyped simply because of the whole PHS label, but if he’s not, and your league mates forget how good he was in 08, he could be a steal.
As far as the league breakdown, three of my top four catchers currently reside in the AL, which gives that league a ton of top heavy depth. They also have the always solid Jorge Posada, the upside pick in Wieters, and another consistent performer in AJ Pierzynski. But there are also a ton of really, really open catcher spots at this time, and if you’re in an AL only league, it will be worth it to get at least one solid catcher next year.
In the NL, there is only one elite option – Brian McCann – meaning if you can get him at a reasonable price you have a huge leg up on everyone else. There are also several speculative picks – Ryan Doumit, Russell Martin, Geovany Soto to name a few. Going over the free agents next year, we have potentially a couple of former fantasy studs Pudge Rodriguez and JasonVaritek hitting the market. Neither should offer much fantasy value, although if Vmart moves to first and Varitek’s option in picked up, he could be a solid guy in AL only leagues. You could also see Bengie Molina switching teams, which would open up a spot for Buster Posey.
Bottom line, this season is a lot different than last year. There are a ton of decent options, but it isn’t a bad idea to jump on one of the top three or four early in mixed leagues. In single league formats, it’s the same deal. And elite option will give you a huge advantage over everyone else. Still, as I will detail bellow, Joe Mauer should not be considered until the late second round – and even that is a stretch. On to my (very early) top three tiers of catchers for the 2010 season:
Tier 1:
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
3. Victor Martinez, Boston Red Sox
Some would argue that Joe Mauer is in his own tier, but I completely disagree. If he put up 2009 again, and hit .360 with 35 homers, that would make him the clear cut #1 catcher, and a first rounder – probably a top five pick. But nothing in his past suggests he can sustain this, and every underlying stat suggests he can’t. He’s second in the league in “just enough” home runs, and his average HR distance is well bellow what it was last season. He’s made a power jump for sure. But it’s probably a jump from 10 homers to the 15-20 level. This huge year is more likely some good fortune than anything else. Pencil in Mauer for .330/15-20 homers/85/85, and he’s #1. But McCann and Martinez are both good for .295/25/90/70, meaning they aren’t all that far behind Mauer. And Mauer also carries an injury risk, as well as the risk that he falls back to 2008 levels, which would mean he’d probably be my #3 catcher. So he’s not head and shoulders above the rest.
Tier 2:
4. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles Angels
Last year I said that a 40 homer season could be in Napoli’s future. Well, in 2009 he hit more ground balls and his HR/FB rate dropped off considerably. He’s still not a .295 hitter, and now his power ceiling could be 25 home runs – not good for his value. He’s a safe bet to hit in the .270s, hit 25 home runs, and drive in a bunch of runs. But he doesn’t become an elite fantasy option until he starts hitting more flyballs again, or somehow lowers his K rate to make him a legit .290-.300 hitter, like #2 and #3 here.
Tier 3:
After the top-4, take a shot on Soto's upside.
5. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs
6. Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles
7. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees
9. Ryan Doumit, Pitsburgh Pirates
Like Napoli, who is between tier 1 and tier 3, Soto is between tier 2 and tier 3. I’d clearly take Napoli ahead of him, but I’m not sure he fits in this tier either. His skills still look ok, and I don’t see any reason to believe he can’t come back and hit .280/20 again. But we’ll have to see, he’s certainly coming off of a crappy 2009. The rest of this tier, much like Soto, has significant upside. These are catchers who many would have placed in their top-5 going into last season. But each one has a huge question mark. Posada had another solid season, but at 39, can he keep it up? Matt Wieters had a poor rookie year, but he was our #3 catcher last season. He’s got so much upside. Russell Martin, the #1 guy for a couple years back there, is still young enough that you doubt he’s really lost anything – he’s 26, and should be entering his prime. Plus he hits in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball. But his 2009 was nothing short of a disaster. Could he really have burned out this early in his career? I still like the upside pick, if you can get him late. Ryan Doumit is another guy who came into the year as a highly rated young catcher, off of his breakout campaign. He proceeded to have a horrible season. I still believe in him, but he really was awful in 2009, so that drops him a few spots.
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[...] Alex Geshwind of Fantasy Bullpen is ready to discuss the 2010 fantasy baseball season (must be a Cubs fan), and begins with a look at the catching position. Here’s an interesting question he poses: “Is Joe Mauer a first-rounder?” [...]
[...] Alex Geshwind of Fantasy Bullpen is ready to discuss the 2010 fantasy baseball season (must be a Cubs fan), and begins with a look at the catching position. Here’s an interesting question he poses: “Is Joe Mauer a first-rounder?” [...]
Sorry to nitpick here, but you’ve got Napoli’s last name spelled wrong, Alex. Also Martinez, Soto and Martin’s first names. Not to be demanding or anything, but if I’m going to take your articles seriously, spelling the players’ names right will help. To discuss something more relevant, any thoughts on Buster Posey? He’s looking ready to start next year in the bigs for the Giants. Wondering if you’d put him around the end of tier 3, or lump him in with the ‘Everybody else’ pile.
HOLLA(R), on Posey:
I don’t think he’d be up in tier 3 as of now, but I do think he’s worth a shot, even in those one year leagues. His MLEs aren’t nearly as impressive as Wieters, and we all know how that turned out. But he is hitting .320 or so, and should finish the season over 20 homers. After these 9, I don’t think anyone really stands out – it’s more about preference. If you want the upside though, invest in Posey.
As far as the spelling, my bad there. I was copying a lot of the notes from my projection spreadsheet, and I guess I didn’t think to check over the names. I’d like to say it was some kind of statement. Separate from the names, pay for the production. But it’s really just a matter of spell check not extending to players names. Thanks for the heads up.