Looking back: 2005 top 5 prospects

One of the most difficult aspects of fantasy baseball is predicting the performance of rookies and minor leaguers. Very few owners win leagues without rookies, and a lot of them loose leagues because of them. To improve as fantasy owners, we have to look back at the mistakes we have made in the past, so lets take a look at a top prospects list from the 2005 Rotowire magazine.

1. B.J. Upton - We all know how big of a prospect Upton was for a few years, and for a while it looked like he might not live up to the hype, but Upton’s big time combination of power and speed have created a fantasy monster. As his batting eye and patience continue to develop, he has a shot at becoming a first round player. Upton is definitely worthy of the top spot, not neccarily the best pick but a good enough one, especially at the time.

2. Casey Kotchman - Kotchman is another guy who has slowly developed, however I do not believe he has become the player he was expected to be. Kotchman has decent power, however he has not been able to turn doubles into home runs and his slugging percentages is not that high. His on base percentage last season was .328, far below where he needs to be. Overall, Kotchman’s performance decreased significantly with his OPS+ dropping more than 20 points. I don’t believe that Kotchman will ever be that good of a player, and placing him at the second spot was a mistake on the part of Rotowire.

3. Delmon Young - Most people really liked Delmon Young. I was never a huge fan, but hist struggles so far in his major league career have been worse than even I predicted. This guy has hit 10 and 13 home runs and his OPS+ has stayed at or below the league average. He has decent speed, something that could keep him rostered in some leagues, but over a full season 14 steals really shouldn’t mean that much. I don’t understand what everyone saw in this guy, he just isn’t that good at playing baseball.

4. Gavin Floyd - Floyd was a huge prospect who struggled once he got to the major league level. Although it may look as though he has finally reached his uber-prospect level, he hasn’t. He has great control, however his mediocre strikeout rate and terrible track record of keeping balls in the park are going to prevent him from ever being a serviceable major league starter. I would look for this guy to struggle in a big way in the future, and never be the 4th best prospect Rotowire thought he would be.

5. Jeff Francis - After two straight years of steady improvement Francis looked like he could survive without striking a lot of guys out. He took about 10 steps back this season however, with decreases in his strikeout rate, increases in his walk rate, and a lot more home runs per nine innings. Francis is a serviceable major league starter who could be well above average at some point during his career, but without the ability to get those strikeouts he is never going to live up to this spot.