Harden to Texas, Millwood to O’s.

Day three of the 2009 winter meetings has belonged to Texas GM Jon Daniels so far, who has done a fantastic job of improving his team going into 2010. The Rangers were a +44 run team last year, and with the addition of Rich Harden, and Hamilton, Kinsler, and maybe even Davis returning to 2008 form,  as well as the maturation of Feliz and Holland and the potential debut of Smoak, we are looking at a playoff contender next year.

Mid-afternoon, news broke that the Baltimore Orioles had acquire Kevin Millwood and $3 million for Chris Ray and a PTBN. This move was obviously a great deal for Texas. While Chris Ray is of little value, they get $9 million of Millwood’s $12 million deal off the books, allowing them to sign Rich Harden latter in the day. I question this move a bit for the Orioles simply because of Millwood’s cost. Let’s be clear – his 2009 ERA of 3.67 was incredibly lucky, and his FIP 4.80 was horrible. But, as we pointed out going into last year, his 2008 2.55 K/BB rate and 4.02 FIP were both quite solid. Bill James projects him at a 4.37 ERA and 175 innings next year, which seems perfectly reasonable, and to be honest, the O’s aren’t going to find 5 starters who can give them 175 innings of league average performance. However, if they wanted to spend $9 million, they should have spent it on Harden, or Sheets, or Piniero, or…. I could go on. Millwood just isn’t worth the price. Fantasy wise, please ignore Kevin Millwood. He’s in the exact opposite situation he was in last year, when he had solid underlying numbers but horrible production. Now his production is starting to look good, driving up his price, but his FIP and K/BB rate simply don’t support his ERA. And Ray sucks, but I think that’s obvious at this point.

The Rangers then turned around and used that extra cash to sign injury-prone but highly talented starter Rich Harden. Harden struggled a bit last season, and as a flyball pitcher Texas may not be too kind to him. His stuff was still there though, and his 10.91 K rate and 3.70 xFIP show he is still pitching at a high level. If he can keep the home runs in check, and improve the control a bit, and most importantly, stay healthy, he could be an ace caliber starter. He’ll cost the Rangers $7.5 million in 2010, with a team option of $11.5 million for 2011. He’s worth the risk for them, and could be a very solid fantasy sleeper in 2010. Just don’t count on him to stay healthy.