The Roy Halladay insanity.

Over the past day Roy Halladay has stolen back the spotlight from Curtis Granderson and Rich Harden, with rumors flying around that three teams are currently pursuing the righty; the Yankees, Angels, and Phillies, all seem to be legitimately interested. However, the rumored deals being talked about, and even more surprisingly, the reaction of media, team executives, and fans to these deals, have been ridiculous.

Let’s first look at what we have in Roy Halladay. Yes, he’s 32, but his skill set remains completely intact, with his K rate, K/BB rate, and velocity all at or around career highs. He’s pitched 220 or more innings the last four seasons, putting his injury-prone label behind him. Furthermore, his last two seasons, he has reached levels that he had not reached since his mid-20s, when he won a Cy Young.

So what did the Angels offer? Joe Saunders, Peter Bourjos, and Erick Aybar. Saunders has a career FIP of 4.63. Last year, his worst season to date, he had a FIP well over 5 and a K/BB rate around 1.6. He is about league average, if not slightly above league average, from a GB rate point of view, but when you’re striking out less than 5 batters per nine innings, and walking more than 3, you suck. Always. Pretty much no exceptions that I can think of over the past couple of decades. After that, it gets a bit better. Erick Aybar was actually fairly good last season. No, he isn’t much with the bat, although he did hit .312 with a .339 wOBA in 2009, a huge improvement over his previous seasons. Most of his value comes from good defense (career UZR/150 around 7). But that’s what we have here. He’s 25, so he could get better, but he’s always going to be a light hitting defensive shortstop. Bourjos is yet another solid MLB player at best. He’s a borderline top-100 prospect with good speed and defensive skills, but a poor stick and no power. So we are looking at one horrible player and two solid ones for Roy Halladay?

Even worse, people have been calling this a “big package” for one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the best deal out there. It’s just absurd.  The Angels have even hinted at the possibility of other players coming back in a deal, and the rumor was that Aybar was borderline untouchable earlier this off-season. What am I missing?

Joe Sauders had a 3.41 ERA in 2008. He also pitched a few good games down the stretch last year. This automatically makes him a “good young pitcher.” We don’t mention the fact that he had a 4.36 FIP in 2008, and a .267 BABIP, as well as the fact that his control completely fell apart last year. And Aybar hit .312, so he must be a good hitter right? And he has a great defensive reputation, right? He’s basically Elvis Andrus, except 25 years old, with much less speed and upside. He’s a solid player to have around, but people need to realize he’s nothing more than a light hitting, slightly above average starting Major League SS. And Bourjos… well I have no idea where that hype is coming from. He’s a solid young prospect, who could be a solid MLB player. But he’s not the kind of guy you build a package around for an ace.

People need to stop acting like this is a reasonable deal, just because the Blue Jays last GM (who, if you didn’t notice, wasn’t very smart) offered a similar package and had it turned down (allegedly). It was a stupid move by both teams, and I doubt the Blue Jays pull the trigger on this deal. If they do, it just signals that they are even more of a backwards thinking, poorly managed organization than they have been the past few seasons, which is saying something.

The Blue Jays can make the smart move, which is take offers from the top teams (Yanks, Angels, Phillies, and Red Sox), try and include the Mets (seriously, they’re farm system has some very nice players, especially compared to the crap they’d be getting from LA), and if they don’t get anything, offer him arbitration and take the draft picks. Or they could do the stupid thing and trade him for a bunch of role players. We all know how that worked out in Minnesota with Santana.

Just to go over a couple of the more reasonable rumored deals out there:

Another rumored deal out their involves the Phillies. This one isn’t so bad. The Phillies would send JA Happ and one of Michael Taylor/Domonic Brown for Halladay. Given the choice of Brown or Taylor, I take Taylor. Baseball America ranks Brown the top prospect in that system, and I know he is very talented, but he needs to develop more power to be a truly elite prospect, and I’m not sure it ever will. Taylor on the other hand is the real deal. He can hit for average, and has 30-30 upside at the big league level. He’s a pretty solid defender with a good arm and good speed.  Fantasy owners should remember this guy. As far as Happ, I’m not sold on him. He’s a solid mid rotation starter, but he doesn’t have any skill that sticks out. He’s pretty average across the board, and given his age (27) and average stuff, I think it’s safe to call him pretty, well, average. I know he won rookie of the year but his ERA will go up quite a bit next year. He could be solid but he wont be special. If I’m Torono, I ask the Phillies for Drabek and Taylor, and although that might be a bit much, they could end up going for it. If not, I’d still probably consider this deal, as it’s a lot better than what you’re getting from LA, and you may not be able to pull a prospect like Taylor out of the draft. If this is the best you’re getting, and it’s on the table as is, I’d definitely consider it.

We don’t know what they could get from New York at the moment, but the package I’m hearing is Hughes/Joba, Montero, and Melky, which at least in my opinion, blows the other two out of the water. A lesser package based on one of Hughes, Joba, or Montero is possible, and would still be worth considering.

Some RP moves..

UPDATE: Lyon signed for 3 years, $15 million with Houston. As I said, he’s in decline, and not a legit closer. Crazy big deal for a mediocre middle reliever. Epic-fail by the Astros.

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The Florida Marlins have sent Matt Lindstrom to the Houston Astros for a couple of scrub minor leaguers. This almost guarantees that Leo Nunez will start the season as closer, but as his 5.17 FIP from last season shows, he’s simply a disaster waiting to happen. Keep tabs on who his setup man will be this spring, and make sure to have him on your team, at least until Nunez proves he can handle the role.

Meanwhile, some relievers are commanding big chunks of change on the open market. The Brewers signed LaTroy Hawkins to a 2 year, $7.5 million deal. Don’t let his 2.13 2009 ERA fool you. He’s not a realistic closing candidate going forward. Just look at his 6.39 K rate, and 3.97 FIP. He’s solid, but he’s being overpaid. Don’t think of him as a dominant middle reliever, and don’t expect him to pick up many saves.

Brandon Lyon is rumored to be looking for a similar deal, coming off a season with a 2.86 ERA. But he, much like Hawkins, doesn’t have the skills to close. His control took a major step back last year, and his FIP and xFIP both topped 4. He’s another solid reliever, but his fantasy relevance extends only to saves, and his grip on any closers role would be shaky at best.

Finally, the best reliever readily available at the Winter Meetings has to be Rafael Soriano. The Braves, who brought in Billy Wagner to close, are trying to move Soriano, who unexpectedly excepted arbitration a couple of days ago. He is an elite talent, with a 12.10 K rate last season and a 2.54 FIP. He’s in the prime of his career, and despite some significant injuries, he’s managed a career FIP of around 3.3 and a career K rate just under 10. This guy is the real deal, and could close for almost any team. Even if he ends up setting up, he’s a fantasy asset because of his Ks, ERA, and WHIP, and if that closer were to go down, he’d be a very good source for saves.

Harden to Texas, Millwood to O’s.

Day three of the 2009 winter meetings has belonged to Texas GM Jon Daniels so far, who has done a fantastic job of improving his team going into 2010. The Rangers were a +44 run team last year, and with the addition of Rich Harden, and Hamilton, Kinsler, and maybe even Davis returning to 2008 form,  as well as the maturation of Feliz and Holland and the potential debut of Smoak, we are looking at a playoff contender next year.

Mid-afternoon, news broke that the Baltimore Orioles had acquire Kevin Millwood and $3 million for Chris Ray and a PTBN. This move was obviously a great deal for Texas. While Chris Ray is of little value, they get $9 million of Millwood’s $12 million deal off the books, allowing them to sign Rich Harden latter in the day. I question this move a bit for the Orioles simply because of Millwood’s cost. Let’s be clear – his 2009 ERA of 3.67 was incredibly lucky, and his FIP 4.80 was horrible. But, as we pointed out going into last year, his 2008 2.55 K/BB rate and 4.02 FIP were both quite solid. Bill James projects him at a 4.37 ERA and 175 innings next year, which seems perfectly reasonable, and to be honest, the O’s aren’t going to find 5 starters who can give them 175 innings of league average performance. However, if they wanted to spend $9 million, they should have spent it on Harden, or Sheets, or Piniero, or…. I could go on. Millwood just isn’t worth the price. Fantasy wise, please ignore Kevin Millwood. He’s in the exact opposite situation he was in last year, when he had solid underlying numbers but horrible production. Now his production is starting to look good, driving up his price, but his FIP and K/BB rate simply don’t support his ERA. And Ray sucks, but I think that’s obvious at this point.

The Rangers then turned around and used that extra cash to sign injury-prone but highly talented starter Rich Harden. Harden struggled a bit last season, and as a flyball pitcher Texas may not be too kind to him. His stuff was still there though, and his 10.91 K rate and 3.70 xFIP show he is still pitching at a high level. If he can keep the home runs in check, and improve the control a bit, and most importantly, stay healthy, he could be an ace caliber starter. He’ll cost the Rangers $7.5 million in 2010, with a team option of $11.5 million for 2011. He’s worth the risk for them, and could be a very solid fantasy sleeper in 2010. Just don’t count on him to stay healthy.