2010 Bullpen Preview: AL East

Not a busy day in the baseball world Friday, so I decided to start my 2010 bullpen previews in the AL East.

New York Yankees:

Closer - Mariano Rivera.
Setup - Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, David Robertson?
Best pitcher - Rivera.

Rivera is as good ever. In 2009, Rivera’s ERA was under 2 for the sixth time in seven seasons, as he posted a 72/12 k to walk ratio, the second strait year his K/BB rate was 6+. He is 40 years old, but he just seems to get better every year. That said, their are several elite setup guys on this team. Recent comments from Brian Cashman indicate that, if the Yankees sign another starter, Chamberlain and Hughes will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, leaving the other one to likely setup Rivera. Chamberlain’s career numbers as a reliever are tremendous, with a 1.50 ERA and K rate of almost 11. Hughes’ as a reliever? A 1.40 ERA and a K/BB rate of 5. Lesser known setup option David Robertson also has an electric skill set. In 43 2/3 innings, he struck out 63 batters, for a K rate of 12.98, and a FIP of 3.05. Robertson could be worth rostering just for his ERA and Ks, but in the even that Chamberlain and Hughes end up on the rotation, Robertson would be the main setup guy, and his value would increase.

Boston Red Sox:

Closer - Jon Papelbon.
Setup - Daniel Bard.
Best pitcher - Papelbon.

His ERA may have improved in 2009, but a year after posting a near 10 K/BB rate, Papelbon struggled with his control and FB% for much of 2009. Still, his K rate stayed north of 10, and a FIP of 3.05, and an ERA of 1.85 show he’s still pitching at a high level. There has been talk that Papelbon will be moved this off-season, and that Daniel Bard will take his place. While I don’t think they’ll just give up on one of the best closers in the league over the past few seasons, Bard could handle it. The fireballer had a K rate of 11.5 in 2009, with a FIP of 3.38 and xFIP of 3.25. His average fastball velocity? 97.3. He improves his control and he could be one of the best closers in baseball. Don’t worry too much about Papelbon, but Bard is certainly worth an AL only shot for his Ks, ERA, and closing potential.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Closer - Rafael Soriano.
Setup - JP Howell.
Best pitcher - Soriano.

JP Howell spent much of last season as the Rays closer, saving 17 games with a 2.84 ERA. His K rate and groundball abilities make him a solid closing candidate, but the Rays went out and traded for former Braves closer/setup-man Rafael Soriano. Soriano has the skills to be an elite closer, with a 2.54 FIP last year, a 12.13 K rate, and a sub-3 xFIP. However, he spent much of 2004, 2005, and 2008 on the disabled list with a variety of injuries. For that reason, Soriano is a less than perfect fantasy option, and JP Howell is definitely still worth owning in AL only leagues. Former closer Grant Balfour is also an intriguing option given his ability to miss bats and previous success in the role. If anyone else emerges in this bullpen, keep an eye on the situation, because Soriano is a huge injury risk.

Baltimore Orioles:

Closer - Mike Gonzalez.
Setup - Kam Mickolio, Jim Johnson?
Best pitcher - Gonzalez.

The second former Brave on this list, Gonzalez can also dominate at times but has struggled with health. With 3.31 and 3.70 xFIPs the past two seasons, and around 11 K/9 , there’s no reason to believe he can’t perform at a high level. Past Gonzalez though, we get into a whole bunch of mediocrity. One intriguing name is 25 year old Kam Mickolio. Mickolio spent most of 2009 in AAA, where he posted a 3.11 FIP in 35 relief appearances. Once promoted to the Major Leagues, Mickolio struck out 14 batters in 13 2/3 innings with a 2.58 FIP. The 6-9, 256 pound righty throws a mid-90s fastball more than 80% of the time, and also mixes in a slider in the mid-80s. Worth watching if Gonzalez goes down. Finally, Jim Johnson ended last season as the Orioles main closer, but given his poor performance I doubt he gets another crack at it.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Closer - Jason Frasor.
Setup – Scott Downs.
Best pitcher - Downs.

This is the most uncertain bullpen situation in the division. When BJ Ryan landed on the DL early in the year, Scott Downs took over as closer. However, Downs battled his own injuries, and Jason Frasor ended the season as the Jays closer, dominating down the stretch. Ryan is out of the picture, and it seems to be between Downs and Frasor at this point. Downs probably has the slightly better skill set. In 2009, he struck out 43 batters while only walking 13, inducing groundballs at an awesome 55.7%. His xFIP was 3.18. Frasor also has a nice skill set, with a K rate of 8.74, nice control, and a 2.99 FIP. However, his flyball tendency makes him a little more prone to blow-ups. We’ll pencil Frasor in as the closer, as he ended there last season, but it could really be either one. Whoever gets the job to start the season is worth a good investment, especially Downs, as both are good enough to keep the job. Brandon League was also very good down the stretch, so he could end up in the mix.

Catchers rankings, world series

I know I haven’t  posted a lot this week but I have been working on Fantasy Bullpen’s catchers rankings and there hasn’t been much news to post about anyway. Over the weekend I will finish the catchers projections, and post the preliminary list here some time on Sunday. It would take to much time and space to post all of the projections so you will have to wait for the draft kit to get those, however I will definitely be using them in my keeper analysis. Please keep sending in keeper questions and I will continue to respond to them.

As far as the world series – it’s going pretty much the way it was always going to go. For two teams to make it to the world series they have to have been both good enough to make it to the playoffs and hot enough to win a couple of series. When a world series isn’t close it represents a massive talent gap, and there is very little talent gap between these two teams.  I still like the Rays, probably in 6 or 7 games, but it’s the world series so anything can and will happen.

How will Price do in 2009? Looking at some patterns

On the 13th the top prospect in baseball, David Price was called up to the big leagues. We know he will probably be in the bullpen for the rest of this year, however what can we expect from him in 2009? Based on recent minor league patterns, I think we can expect a lot. Lets look at some of the similar (and there aren’t many) players over the last few years.

The name that would come to mind most is Tim Lincecum. Currently in his third proffesional season, Lincecum is pitching his way to a possible Cy Young and his path to the majors has been very similar. In his first pro season, he threw 32 innings while posting an increadable 58 strikeouts to 12 walks. Combine that with his 2007 minor league numbers and Lincecum has almost as many minor league innings as Price, to go along with a similar K/BB rate and good home run numbers on both sides.

The other name to throw out there might be Homer Bailey, however there were plenty of warning sines there. His K/BB rate declined drastically after a promotion to AA early in his minor league career and he had a history of giving up way to many homeruns, a bad sign for anyone about to pitch in Great American Ballpark. He doesn’t seem to have the same problems as Bailey.

There are a couple of other guys you might want to look at, Joba Chamberlain and Johnny Cueto come to mind, however those are the two extremes of this situation, and it’s pretty obvious that Price is a lot closer to Lincecum than Bailey. He might not be pitching for the Cy Young, but there is no way he struggles like Bailey. I wouldn’t look for a drop off like Cueto’s, because it doesn’t seem like the league will solve David Price antime soon. (**Note: if he is still owned in any of your leagues, pick him up now, even if it costs you a number one waiver claim.)