Can Huff bounce back?

On Monday, the Giants signed Aubrey Huff to a one year deal somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 million. A look at his numbers from last season would leave anyone with a bad taste in their mouth. Between Baltimore and Detroit, he hit .241 with only 15 homers and a sub-.300 wOBA. Offensively, he was 15.6 park adjusted runs bellow average, an incredibly low number. Only three players contributed more negative value – Edgar Renteria, Emilio Bonafacio, and Yuniesky Betancourt.

But go back one year. In 2008, as an Oriole, Huff hit .304 with a .912 OPS, smashed 32 homers and drove in 108 runs. He won the silver slugger at first base, beating out guys like Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis, and Mark Teixeira. From 2002 to 2008, Huff hit .297, averaging 25 homers and 87 RBIs a year. Huff is 33 years old, so while he may be on the downside of his career, a drop as massive as the one he saw in 2009 is unusual.

His first/second half splits offer little hope. His .784 OPS in the first half was a far cry from 2008, but still pretty good. His .603 OPS in the second half was atrocious. His second half on base percentage, .283, is lower than his batting average from 2008.

But there is some hope here. In 2009, Huff struck out a bit more. But not too much more. He still made contact more than most power hitters, and his walk rate actually went up. His BB/K rate of .59 was only a .01 lower than his 2008 level. His plate discipline numbers were just about the same as 2008, and he faced very similar pitches. It wasn’t like pitchers “figured him out,” all of a sudden, and he wasn’t swinging at bad pitches either. So what happened? A couple of things. First, he hit the ball into the ground way too much. A 48.5% GB rate sapped his power, and his 15.5% LD rate absolutely killed his batting average. Even further than that, his power disappeared. He posted a career low 9.1% HR/FB rate, way down from 2008, and his ISO dropped more than 100 points.

From a fantasy perspective, Huff might be worth the gamble. 2008 was just as good as 2009 was bad, and before 07/09, Huff had been a consistent 25-90 guy. Given his low K rate and high BB rate a batting average rebound in likely, and I doubt the power is completely gone just yet. For the Giants, this was a decent move. Low risk, high reward. He may not reproduce his 2008 numbers, but this isn’t the bad move some are making it out to be. He can play solid defense at both corner infield positions, and offensively, you have to think he can bounce back just a bit.