Fantasy Bullpen » Phillies

Phillies offer 2 yr/$12 mil deal to Rodney.

Ryan Gilbert — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 01:48:12 +0000

The Philadelphia Phillies are considering signing Fernando Rodney to help bolster the back end of their bullpen. For the Phillies, Rodney would provide a safety net for Brad Lidge, as well as a bona fide set up man and fireballer, one thing the Phils have been lacking. All of the Phils relievers seem to be finesse pitchers, and Rodney would provide a great change for the pen. In 2009, Rodney threw 60.5% fastballs (95 MPH avg), 39.1% changeups, and 0.5% sliders. Rodney had a 57.9 GB% in 2009, a great percentage for a ballpark like CBP. Also, Rodney’s HR/FB rate was 11.8% in 2009, about average. Rodney has 70 career saves, as well as 29 career blown saves, with 41 holds. Rodney has spent his entire career in Detroit, a switch to the NL would certainly improve his numbers.

Rodney is also a proven postseason pitcher, although in just 7 2/3 IP, Rodney has allowed just 2 earned runs while striking out 9.

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Phillies & others interested in Mike MacDougal

Ryan Gilbert — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 20:29:34 +0000

The righty reliever has drawn interest from multiple teams, the strongest being from the Phillies.

MacDougal has closer experience, and despite his 4.31 ERA in 2008, he had 20 saves and just 1 blown save. MacDougal has a career total of 70 saves, with 19 blown saves, only 8 more than Lidge’s ’09 total. If MacDougal lands in Philadelphia, he might be able to pick up some saves.

MacDougal, who was non-tendered by the Nationals, had more walks than strikeouts last season. You shouldn’t expect a great season from him in 2010, but if he gets some saves, he could have value.

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How good is Cole Hamels really?

Alex Geshwind — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 23:50:52 +0000

Earlier this season I traded one of my favorite pitchers in baseball, Cole Hamels. To tell you the truth, it had more to do with him loosing me a bet than anything else but I was discourage by his low strikeout rate and the fact that he had been a little lucky. The guy I traded him for, John Smoltz, was hurt within a week and Hamels took off after that. I’m probably going to be posting an early look at the top 5 pitchers for next season, and to tell you the truth I have no idea who is going to be up there. After his great start today, I decided to take a look and Hamels and decide whether he should be considered or not.

The first thing I noticed was Cole Hamels innings total. About a month ago I posted that Hamels was around 180 innings and that the Phillies should attempt to limit him in September to keep him around 200-210 innings going into the playoffs. They kept pitching him with no regard for his workload and now he is up to 227 with potentially the entire month of October ahead of him. Last season he pitched 183 innings and the year before that 132. That means for the second straight season, he substantially exceeded the limit of 30 innings more than the year before, something most sabermetric experts will agree on. This is a major red flag for any fantasy owner and can not be dismissed, especially considering his history of shoulder injuries. I can’t really say what will happen next year, no one can, but I would not be surprised if he got hurt and am almost sure his innings will go down, potentially because of fatigue.

The next warning sign is his strikeouts. In his rookie season he had a strikeout rate of almost 10. As his innings have increased, his strikeout rate has gone way down. He now has a strikeout rate of 7.8, thats more than 2 less strikeouts every 9 innings. Fantasy leaguers have not been hurt yet, because Hamels has increased his innings enough to hide this fact, however when you are throwing 230 innings and can’t 200 strikeouts your status as a strikeout pitcher may be in danger. For example, if Hamels does spend a couple of weeks on the DL and his innings drop to 190, his strikeouts could go all the way down to 164not nearly at his 2006 level or the level of similar “aces” such as CC Sabathia or Rich Harden. If he is more rested however, his strikeouts could actually go up (explored in greater detail below) if he is throwing harder and his breaking balls are breaking sharper. You never like to see diminishing strikeouts in 25 year old pitchers, but this could be linked to his inning levels and hopefully can be corrected.

Although Hamels has improved since his call up in 06, his stats since last season are no better and in some cases much worse. In 2006 his BB rate was at 3.1, however last year he made great strides in control lowering that to 2.1. It has stayed at 2.1 this season, and parred with a lower K rate his K/BB rate has gone way down. This trend is reflected in his tRA numbers over the past 3 years. When he came up, his tRA was slightly over 4.While his strikeouts were up, his walks were way to high. In 2007, he fixed those control issues, and maintained a very high K rate leading to a tRA of 3.64. In 2008, it has gone back up to 3.78.

Although Hamels’ numbers are actually better in the second half of 2008 than the first, my fatigue theory may still be valid. In the first half, Hamels pitched about 13 more innings, and both of his 120 pitch outings came in the first half. When the Phillies eased up a little, Hamels was lights out through the final month. His strikeouts were not much better, but his control was. Although this might look like a good sign, it may hint at a permanent K/9 decrees.

The bottom line here is that Hamels is not the pitcher he was last year. If his innings go down next season, he will probably eventually revert back to his 2007 level, however because of what we saw in the second half, there in no guarantee. It is unlikely that Hamels will crack the top 5 this year, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be there at the end.

Playoff predictions 08

Alex Geshwind — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 18:17:28 +0000

I’m working on a formula for this but I don’t have one yet so I’m just going to look at the numbers and take a guess. Lets start with tonight’s Twins vs. White Sox game.

Playoff Game

Twins vs. White Sox This is one game so it is even more of a crapshoot than usual but the White Sox are the better team so I am going to stick with them. Plus Nick Blackburn kind of sucks.

ALDS

White Sox @ Rays I’m going to have to go with the Rays here. They are clearly the better team (Baseball Prospectus has them at 10 more adjusted wins) and they are the more rested team. If the White Sox get into this game they will have won 3 straight games against 3 different teams, they will be tired and might let up a bit. If they were a lot better than the Rays I might consider giving them the nod but it’s the other way around. I think the Rays have a shot to sweep, but the Sox might be able to drag it out a few games so I’ll take them in 4.

Red Sox @ Angels This might look like a hard game to pick but it really isn’t. The Angels might be on fire, but they really aren’t nearly as good as everyone thinks. They are inpatient, they run way to much, they have no concept of sabermetrics, and they just get way to lucky sometimes. Baseball Prospectus has them adjusted to 84 wins, with the Red Sox all the way up at 102. The Red Sox have a much better team with sabermetrics gods like Kevin Youkillis and Dustin Pedroia. I’m picking them in 3 games. This will not be close.

NLDS

Brewers @ Phillies This is really difficult to pick. Both teams are very close in expected records, they have virtually identical wOBA’s, and the while the Brewers have a much better rotation the Phillies have a much better bullpen. In the end all these factors even out, and even though the Phillies are the hottest team in baseball, I can’t see anyone getting to Sheets or Sabathia. I’m going Brewers in 5.

Dodgers @ Cubs The Cubs are the best team in the NL and even though the Dodgers are good, they just can’t mach Chicago’s rotation or offense. Chicago in 3 or 4.

Red Sox @ Rays This is another really, really difficult game to pick. I will be rooting for the Rays, and I do think they have a shot, but in the end, realistically, the Red Sox are better the better team. Sox in 6.

Phillies @ Cubs This is almost a no-brainer. The Cubs are much better and their home field advantage will really help. The Cubs are going to get to there first world series since the 40′s, I’m going Cubs in 5.

World Series

Cubs @ Red Sox I don’t know what to say about this series. We though we would se this in 2003, we didn’t. The Cubs haven’t won in 100 years, while the Red Sox have won twice in the last 4. Although the Red Sox have 8 more adjusted wins, looking at some other stats makes this really close. The Cubs have a substantial tRA advantage in their rotation, although some of that is because they are in the NFC. The bullpen’s are about the same and the Red Sox have a better offense. This could be a great series, but I think I’m going with the Cubs in 7. This could change by the world series though.