More on Javy Vazquez

Just how good is Javier Vazquez? How hard could it possibly be to answer that question? I mean, he’s 33. He’s been in the big leagues since he was 21, and has been incredible durable, with 198+ innings every year since 2000, and at least 154 every year of his career. He’s thrown almost 2500 innings in his career. That said, it’s actually a fairly difficult question, and one surrounded by much debate.

Even the stat-heads are somewhat stumped by Javy. On one hand, he’s posted a FIP under 4 every year but one this decade. On the other hand, his ERA since 2004 is 4.22. Not that a 4.22 ERA and 200 innings is a bad thing, but it’s a far cry from his 2009 Cy Young caliber performance, or even the 3.74 FIP he posted in 2008.

It seems almost impossible that a pitcher could have that drastic a split over such a large sample size. But we do have to remember one thing: FIP looks at a pitchers skill, ignoring team defense and ballpark. And boy has Vazquez been killed by those two factors. Since 2004, his teams have ranked 30th, 27th, 28th, 27th, 21st, and 19th in defense.

But let’s take a look at this, year by year:

2004 – Vazquez’s ’04 season was a tale of two halves. In the first half, Vazquez had a 3.54 ERA and near 3 K/BB rate, making the All Star team and looking like New York’s ace at only 27 years old. His second half was a disaster though, with an ERA of over 7 and a K/BB rate under 2. What happened? Vazquez was playing hurt, and it clearly effected his performance. This was essentially the first, and only major injury in Vazquez’s career, and he has said he didn’t really know how to handle it.

2005 – After being traded for Randy Johnson, Vazquez proceeded to post a 3.31 xFIP. Only one problem. His HR/FB rate was an obscene 16.3%, leading to an ERA of 4.42. He also suffered from a defense that ranked 27th in the league. Vazquez’s ’05 HR/FB rate was unusual, as he has been around league average over his career, so don’t worry about a trend here.

2006 – His first year with the White Sox, Vazquez had another horrible year. Why? Two reasons. First, a .321 BABIP, due mostly to pitching in front of the team ranking 28th in the league in UZR, and second, an uncharacteristically low 65.8% LOB%. Again, no trend here except bad luck.

2007 – Finally, some good luck for Vazquez. His 3.8 FIP translated to a 3.74 ERA, and his BABIP and strand rates were right around league average.

2008 - Another unlucky year for Vazquez. This time, the culprit was a high BABIP of .328 and a slightly lower than average LOB%, leading to an ERA almost 100 points higher tha his FIP.

We’ve gone over 2009 before, but basically, Vazquez saw healthy improvement across the board, and a pretty good BABIP and LOB%.

How can we explain this? It’s difficult, because there doesn’t seem to be a significant trend here. He’s almost never hurt – except for 2004. He almost always posts league average HR/FB rates – except for 2005. And while his strand rate may have hurt him a bit in ’06 and ’08, it’s generally pretty standard over his career. His ’06 and ’08 BABIPs were very high, but he was playing in front of horrible defenses, and his career BABIP, while also a few points above league average, is certainly within normal range.

There is certainly a trend here of a pitcher under-performing compared to his FIP and xFIP. However, there is something to be said about his generally horrible luck and the fact that his BABIP, LOB%, and so on are pretty standard over this large sample size. We may never know why Vazquez has performed at a much different level than his skill set indicates he should, but my best guess? A combination of incredibly bad luck, horrible defense, and several big time hitters parks. Essentially, when something goes right for Javy, something else usually goes wrong, leading to only a couple of seasons since 2004 in which he has matched his FIP. Considering the situations he has been in, it’s not such a huge surprise.

What does this mean going forward? Only time will tell. The Yankees actually have a solid defense, ranking 18th in the league last season before swapping Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera for Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner, which should certainly help. This is actually a pretty good defensive outfield, as Swisher is average, and both Gardner and Granderson are stud defenders. That’s a good thing given his FB%. His home ball park… another story, and we could see his HR/FB rate jump a bit, although 2005 isn’t going to happen again, baring horrible luck.

Personally, I expect Vazquez to be in the 3.75 range ERA wise, with over 200 Ks and somewhere around 15-20 wins. While he’s unlikely to repeat his 2009 season, he should be a very solid #2/#3 starter for the Yankees, as well as for your fantasy teams, and while his ERA/FIP trend is troubling, there doesn’t seem to be a trend showing it too be more than bad luck.

Yankees close to acquiring a starting pitcher?

UPDATE: Multiple sources saying it wont be Zambrano or Harang. Worth pointing out that the Yankees have been in talks with the Pirates about Zach Duke/Paul Maholm on multiple occasions over the past couple of years, so don’t rule that out. Both are young, cheap, mid-rotation starters, although not worth a top prospect.

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, the Yankees may be close to acquiring a starter:

Yankees working very hard tonight on deal for starting pitcher. Remember that they came close to deal for Aaron Harang in summer.

The Yankees have been busy this offseason, already landing Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson, and have since turned their attention to the starting rotation. They now appear to be very much in the market for another starter to add to the rotation of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and one of Joba Chamberlain/Phillip Hughes. Assuming they acquire another starter, either Hughes or Joba will move into the 8th inning role, immediately becoming one of the 3-4 best setup men in baseball, and possibly the Yankees future closer, given Mariano Rivera’s age and the fact that his contract runs out after the 2010 season.

The names the Yankees may be going after wary considerably, but let’s go over a few of them:

Aaron Harang always seems to be on the block, or at least it’s been that way for a couple of years now. Is this because Harang is a good pitcher, or because the Reds want to get him off their hands? Last season, Harang went 6-14 with a 4.21 ERA. However, his 3.30 K/BB rate and sub-4 xFIP look pretty good given his asking price will be significantly lower than a Vazquez or even Lowe. He is a flyball pitcher, so expecting him to dominate in Yankee Stadium is foolish, but an ERA of around/under 4 is possible, and if he throws 200 innings in New York, he’ll be a good #3/#4 starter. He could be a solid pickup for the Yankees.

Carlos Zambrano, however, wouldn’t be a solid pickup. This seems like a bit of a longshot as Brian Cashman doesn’t like the asking price here, but his contract is obscene and his performance, while still solid, isn’t what it once was, and is in danger of completely dropping off. Although he did improve his K rate back to early-career levels in 2009, he failed to reach the 2 K/BB rate and sub-4 xFIP levels for the fourth consecutive season. Although he has proven he can keep an abnormally low BABIP over an extended period of time, and post ERAs in the high 3s, it still doesn’t make up for his contract, and his 2009 BABIP signals a possible end to this trend. The only thing keeping his ERA under 4 last year was an uncharacteristically low 5.6% HR/FB, which would not continue in the New Yankee Stadium. Zambrano has some upside, however his risk of collapse is just too high, and given his contract, I’d stay away.

Ben Sheets and Joel Pineiro might be the two best pitchers on the market, and considering they wouldn’t cost the Yankees any prospects, they might be the right guys for Cashman to target. We all know what Sheets can do when healthy. He’s posted FIPs under 3 twice in his career, and with the exception of 2007, and his rookie season, his FIP has always been under 4. His career K/BB rate is 3.85, and in 2006, in over 100 innings, he posted a K/BB rate over 10. That’s bordering on impossible, with 116 ks and 11 walks. That said, he’s been hurt. A lot. He’s hit the DL each of the past 5 years, and missed the entire 2009 season recovering from major surgery. When he’s on the field, he can give you a sub-3 ERA, 200+ Ks. Basically, he’s one of the best in baseball. But that’s a huge risk. Obviously worth a flier, and in New York, he could win a Cy Young.

Pineiro might be the best fit for the Yankees, simply because in that stadium, the ability to keep the ball on the ground is tremendously valuable. Few did it better than Pineiro in 2009, who posted an awesome 60.5 groundball rate. This is new for Pineiro, as he had never reached 50%, so some might be skeptical, however a significant increase in usage of his fastball may explain this growth. And while his 1.14 BB rate was unprecedented, his control clearly improved from 2006, to ‘07, and to ‘08. His K/BB rate in 2007 and 2008 was 2.31. Some regression is possible, actually extremely likely, but if he lands in New York, he could be a major asset, as although he wont miss many bats, his groundball profile and control could make him a very good #2 or #3 starter. Huge risk/reward, depending on whether you believe in his 2009, but obviously a good fit for the stadium. The Yanks might be reluctant to give him the deal he wants though, as he has a shaky track-record, and he’s 31 years old.

If I’m the Yankees, I probably try to sign Sheets to something similar to what Harden got, if he’ll go for it. He’s the best pitcher out there, even though he may miss some time. But most of these options look solid. These are all high-risk, high-reward options, so price is probably going to be the deciding factor.

2010 Bullpen Preview: AL East

Not a busy day in the baseball world Friday, so I decided to start my 2010 bullpen previews in the AL East.

New York Yankees:

Closer - Mariano Rivera.
Setup - Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, David Robertson?
Best pitcher - Rivera.

Rivera is as good ever. In 2009, Rivera’s ERA was under 2 for the sixth time in seven seasons, as he posted a 72/12 k to walk ratio, the second strait year his K/BB rate was 6+. He is 40 years old, but he just seems to get better every year. That said, their are several elite setup guys on this team. Recent comments from Brian Cashman indicate that, if the Yankees sign another starter, Chamberlain and Hughes will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, leaving the other one to likely setup Rivera. Chamberlain’s career numbers as a reliever are tremendous, with a 1.50 ERA and K rate of almost 11. Hughes’ as a reliever? A 1.40 ERA and a K/BB rate of 5. Lesser known setup option David Robertson also has an electric skill set. In 43 2/3 innings, he struck out 63 batters, for a K rate of 12.98, and a FIP of 3.05. Robertson could be worth rostering just for his ERA and Ks, but in the even that Chamberlain and Hughes end up on the rotation, Robertson would be the main setup guy, and his value would increase.

Can Daniel Bard close?

Boston Red Sox:

Closer - Jon Papelbon.
Setup - Daniel Bard.
Best pitcher - Papelbon.

His ERA may have improved in 2009, but a year after posting a near 10 K/BB rate, Papelbon struggled with his control and FB% for much of 2009. Still, his K rate stayed north of 10, and a FIP of 3.05, and an ERA of 1.85 show he’s still pitching at a high level. There has been talk that Papelbon will be moved this off-season, and that Daniel Bard will take his place. While I don’t think they’ll just give up on one of the best closers in the league over the past few seasons, Bard could handle it. The fireballer had a K rate of 11.5 in 2009, with a FIP of 3.38 and xFIP of 3.25. His average fastball velocity? 97.3. He improves his control and he could be one of the best closers in baseball. Don’t worry too much about Papelbon, but Bard is certainly worth an AL only shot for his Ks, ERA, and closing potential.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Closer - Rafael Soriano.
Setup - JP Howell.
Best pitcher - Soriano.

JP Howell spent much of last season as the Rays closer, saving 17 games with a 2.84 ERA. His K rate and groundball abilities make him a solid closing candidate, but the Rays went out and traded for former Braves closer/setup-man Rafael Soriano. Soriano has the skills to be an elite closer, with a 2.54 FIP last year, a 12.13 K rate, and a sub-3 xFIP. However, he spent much of 2004, 2005, and 2008 on the disabled list with a variety of injuries. For that reason, Soriano is a less than perfect fantasy option, and JP Howell is definitely still worth owning in AL only leagues. Former closer Grant Balfour is also an intriguing option given his ability to miss bats and previous success in the role. If anyone else emerges in this bullpen, keep an eye on the situation, because Soriano is a huge injury risk.

Baltimore Orioles:

Closer - Mike Gonzalez.
Setup - Kam Mickolio, Jim Johnson?
Best pitcher - Gonzalez.

The second former Brave on this list, Gonzalez can also dominate at times but has struggled with health. With 3.31 and 3.70 xFIPs the past two seasons, and around 11 K/9 , there’s no reason to believe he can’t perform at a high level. Past Gonzalez though, we get into a whole bunch of mediocrity. One intriguing name is 25 year old Kam Mickolio. Mickolio spent most of 2009 in AAA, where he posted a 3.11 FIP in 35 relief appearances. Once promoted to the Major Leagues, Mickolio struck out 14 batters in 13 2/3 innings with a 2.58 FIP. The 6-9, 256 pound righty throws a mid-90s fastball more than 80% of the time, and also mixes in a slider in the mid-80s. Worth watching if Gonzalez goes down. Finally, Jim Johnson ended last season as the Orioles main closer, but given his poor performance I doubt he gets another crack at it.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Closer - Jason Frasor.
Setup – Scott Downs.
Best pitcher - Downs.

This is the most uncertain bullpen situation in the division. When BJ Ryan landed on the DL early in the year, Scott Downs took over as closer. However, Downs battled his own injuries, and Jason Frasor ended the season as the Jays closer, dominating down the stretch. Ryan is out of the picture, and it seems to be between Downs and Frasor at this point. Downs probably has the slightly better skill set. In 2009, he struck out 43 batters while only walking 13, inducing groundballs at an awesome 55.7%. His xFIP was 3.18. Frasor also has a nice skill set, with a K rate of 8.74, nice control, and a 2.99 FIP. However, his flyball tendency makes him a little more prone to blow-ups. We’ll pencil Frasor in as the closer, as he ended there last season, but it could really be either one. Whoever gets the job to start the season is worth a good investment, especially Downs, as both are good enough to keep the job. Brandon League was also very good down the stretch, so he could end up in the mix.

Holliday update: O’s, Cards, another team?

Things seem to be heating up on the Matt Holiday front, as additional teams may be jumping into the race to land the left fielder.

While the Cardinals still appear to be the favorites, reports last night indicated that the Orioles might end up being serious bidders. This actually isn’t all that suprising. The O’s are a very talented young team, but could use a bit more power in the middle of their order. They tried to sign Mark Teixeira to build around last season, but weren’t able to. There are also rumors floating around that they will go after Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, a move I’d be a fan of.

Additionally, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports tweeted that Holliday may also have another offer on the table from an East Coast team. My money would be on New York – either the Mets or the Yankees. The Yankees seemed out of it for Holliday a few days ago, but with Damon talks stalling, and both Halladay and Lackey off the market, they might make an offer. The Mets, who seem more interested in Jason Bay, could also be players for Holliday is Bay doesn’t seem ready to sign.

Holliday, who hit .313/.394/.515 last season, with a .390 wOBA and 5.7 UZR, was a 6-7 WAR player in 2009, and is certainly deserving a contract at least approaching $20 million a year, if not exceeding it. However, his numbers have dropped of a bit, and he clearly isn’t the same player he was in Coors field. Fantasy wise, Holliday wont repeat his second half batting average, even if he stays in St. Louis, but he could hit .310 with 25 homers and 10-15 steals and 100 RBIs, making him a #1 fantasy outfielder. A move to Yankee stadium could up his value even more, so keep an eye on the situation as it develops.

The Roy Halladay insanity.

Over the past day Roy Halladay has stolen back the spotlight from Curtis Granderson and Rich Harden, with rumors flying around that three teams are currently pursuing the righty; the Yankees, Angels, and Phillies, all seem to be legitimately interested. However, the rumored deals being talked about, and even more surprisingly, the reaction of media, team executives, and fans to these deals, have been ridiculous.

Let’s first look at what we have in Roy Halladay. Yes, he’s 32, but his skill set remains completely intact, with his K rate, K/BB rate, and velocity all at or around career highs. He’s pitched 220 or more innings the last four seasons, putting his injury-prone label behind him. Furthermore, his last two seasons, he has reached levels that he had not reached since his mid-20s, when he won a Cy Young.

When Roy found out what the Angels were offering for him, and realized he would never get out of Toronto...

So what did the Angels offer? Joe Saunders, Peter Bourjos, and Erick Aybar. Saunders has a career FIP of 4.63. Last year, his worst season to date, he had a FIP well over 5 and a K/BB rate around 1.6. He is about league average, if not slightly above league average, from a GB rate point of view, but when you’re striking out less than 5 batters per nine innings, and walking more than 3, you suck. Always. Pretty much no exceptions that I can think of over the past couple of decades. After that, it gets a bit better. Erick Aybar was actually fairly good last season. No, he isn’t much with the bat, although he did hit .312 with a .339 wOBA in 2009, a huge improvement over his previous seasons. Most of his value comes from good defense (career UZR/150 around 7). But that’s what we have here. He’s 25, so he could get better, but he’s always going to be a light hitting defensive shortstop. Bourjos is yet another solid MLB player at best. He’s a borderline top-100 prospect with good speed and defensive skills, but a poor stick and no power. So we are looking at one horrible player and two solid ones for Roy Halladay?

Even worse, people have been calling this a “big package” for one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the best deal out there. It’s just absurd.  The Angels have even hinted at the possibility of other players coming back in a deal, and the rumor was that Aybar was borderline untouchable earlier this off-season. What am I missing?

Joe Sauders had a 3.41 ERA in 2008. He also pitched a few good games down the stretch last year. This automatically makes him a “good young pitcher.” We don’t mention the fact that he had a 4.36 FIP in 2008, and a .267 BABIP, as well as the fact that his control completely fell apart last year. And Aybar hit .312, so he must be a good hitter right? And he has a great defensive reputation, right? He’s basically Elvis Andrus, except 25 years old, with much less speed and upside. He’s a solid player to have around, but people need to realize he’s nothing more than a light hitting, slightly above average starting Major League SS. And Bourjos… well I have no idea where that hype is coming from. He’s a solid young prospect, who could be a solid MLB player. But he’s not the kind of guy you build a package around for an ace.

People need to stop acting like this is a reasonable deal, just because the Blue Jays last GM (who, if you didn’t notice, wasn’t very smart) offered a similar package and had it turned down (allegedly). It was a stupid move by both teams, and I doubt the Blue Jays pull the trigger on this deal. If they do, it just signals that they are even more of a backwards thinking, poorly managed organization than they have been the past few seasons, which is saying something.

The Blue Jays can make the smart move, which is take offers from the top teams (Yanks, Angels, Phillies, and Red Sox), try and include the Mets (seriously, they’re farm system has some very nice players, especially compared to the crap they’d be getting from LA), and if they don’t get anything, offer him arbitration and take the draft picks. Or they could do the stupid thing and trade him for a bunch of role players. We all know how that worked out in Minnesota with Santana.

Just to go over a couple of the more reasonable rumored deals out there:

Another rumored deal out their involves the Phillies. This one isn’t so bad. The Phillies would send JA Happ and one of Michael Taylor/Domonic Brown for Halladay. Given the choice of Brown or Taylor, I take Taylor. Baseball America ranks Brown the top prospect in that system, and I know he is very talented, but he needs to develop more power to be a truly elite prospect, and I’m not sure it ever will. Taylor on the other hand is the real deal. He can hit for average, and has 30-30 upside at the big league level. He’s a pretty solid defender with a good arm and good speed.  Fantasy owners should remember this guy. As far as Happ, I’m not sold on him. He’s a solid mid rotation starter, but he doesn’t have any skill that sticks out. He’s pretty average across the board, and given his age (27) and average stuff, I think it’s safe to call him pretty, well, average. I know he won rookie of the year but his ERA will go up quite a bit next year. He could be solid but he wont be special. If I’m Torono, I ask the Phillies for Drabek and Taylor, and although that might be a bit much, they could end up going for it. If not, I’d still probably consider this deal, as it’s a lot better than what you’re getting from LA, and you may not be able to pull a prospect like Taylor out of the draft. If this is the best you’re getting, and it’s on the table as is, I’d definitely consider it.

We don’t know what they could get from New York at the moment, but the package I’m hearing is Hughes/Joba, Montero, and Melky, which at least in my opinion, blows the other two out of the water. A lesser package based on one of Hughes, Joba, or Montero is possible, and would still be worth considering.

MLB needs help, but not a salary cap

Tex in Pinstripes

Sabathia, Yankees may be finalizing contract

Cano could be headed to Los Angeles

According to multiple sources, including ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are in talks about a possible trade that would send Robinson Cano to the Dodgers.

Olney reports that the Yankees preferred package would include either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley and assuming that offered is turned down they would focus their attention on outfielder Matt Kemp.

Early this week, there were rumors that the Yankees would swap Cano for Matt Kemp and Russell Martin, however those talks died down. If the Yankees want to make a serious move for those players together, I would assume an additional prospect or two would have to be added, probably of the caliber of a Philip Hughes or Ian Kennedy.

Even if the Yankees are unable to trade Cano to the Dodgers, it is highly likely they would find another team willing to pay big for the second basemen. Although Cano had a poor season in 2008, he was considered almost untouchable a year ago, even in talks for Johan Santana, because of his production early in his career and the length of time until arbitration. If the Yankees were to trade Cano it is likely that Orlando Hudson would be headed to New York. Olney reports that the Yankees have had “internal discussions” regarding Hudson, and that if Cano was traded he would be signed.

Robinson Cano’s struggles in 2008 were greatly documented by the New York media. Cano, who had hit .342 and .307 the previous two season with an OPS+  over 120 in both season, was expected by many to make a big leap in 2008. Not only did his average go down to .271 but his defense got progressively worse and  his OBP dropped to .305. His 08 OBP was lower than his average in 2007. Although there are many theories as to why Cano struggled in 2008, most people point to him missing Larry Bowa. Cano and Bowa had grown very close during the 2007 season and was missed by Cano last year. Not only is Bowa on the Dodgers, the team Cano is rumored to be headed to, but so is Joe Torre who was also instrumental in Cano’s success.  While Cano did struggle in 08 the Dodgers may be expecting him to turn it around with Torre and Bowa, something he may be able to do.

Of the potential packages coming back for the Yankees, the most impressive one is probably Matt Kemp and Russell Martin. Although it is unlikely the Yankees get this kind of package just for Cano, it is worth looking at as this deal could grow and both players could potentially end up on the Yankees during the 09 season. Matt Kemp is an impressive young outfielder with a large skill set who struggled last season when his playing time was reduced. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that Kemp can hit in the .300 range with a .375-.400 OBP and a high SLG, as he showed this skill set in the 2007 season. Kemp is 24 and only going to improve, and he fits right into the Yankees gapping whole in center field.

As for Russell Martin he has proven over the last few years to be one of the better catchers in baseball. Although his power decreased last season, he made significant strides in OBP while walking more and striking out less. He will be 26 by spring and should be entering the prime of his career. With Jorge Posada aging and his injuries piling up it makes sense that Martin would slide in at catcher and Posada would DH.

I doubt the Yankees are able to pull off both Martin and Kemp, and it seems far more likely that Matt Kemp would be in the trade than Russell Martin. But according to Buster Olney the Yankees would prefer a package that included either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley. I doubt the Dodgers would be sending either of them away, however it is possible the Yankees could get something done that would include one of the young stud pitchers.

Joba and the Red Sox

Sad news for Yankees fans, Joba Chamberlain was arrested for DUI in Nebrakska. The last time this happened within the organization it was Steve Swindle and we all saw his career go up in smoke. Doesn’t seem like Joba is going to miss any time, and I doubt this hurts his development but its not a good thing at all.

Better news though for Yankees fans comes from this article by John Heyman in which he basically says the Yankees will be going after everyone with a pulse this offseason and throwing all of their money at them. Either Cashman has finally realized minor leaguers are unproven midget versions of career backups or he has completely lost control of this organization. Either way, this will probably help the Yankees. 

And finally the Red Sox won last night again, forcing a game 7 in Tampa. My original prediction for this series was Sox in 7 and I’m sticking with it. I did think that Kazmir would slam the doors on the Sox a couple of days ago, but I guess that proves how impossible it is to predict individual baseball games. 

I’ll try to write something about how the projections are going, but lets just say they are going to take a while! Right now I’m on my fourth player on my first team but I’m speading things up a bit and the kit will be ready on time.

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