2010 Oakland Athletics Preview

Over the next couple of months we are going to be doing a series of previews for all 30 MLB teams, highlighting one or two interesting themes going into 2010. We will also be including interviews with several bloggers and analysts. We don’t want to be excused of having an east coast bias, so we’ll start of with the AL West this week and into early January. Up first: The Oakland Athletics, and an interview with A’s blogger Nico Pemantle from Athletics Nation.

To lead off our team previews, were taking a look at the Oakland A’s, specifically a couple of young, highly touted pitchers who went in completely different directions in 2009. Way back in August I profiled several breakout pitchers for the 2010 season. Atop my list was A’s left hander Brett Anderson. Here’s what I said:

Brett Anderson is likely to be atop many breakout lists next season. That said, it will be worth it to over pay. Anderson’s ERA this season sits a 4.54, but looking at his skill set, we see a future ace. He has a healthy 7.34 K rate, a BB rate under 3, and a GB% approaching 50%. He truly has every skill you look for.

Anderson’s final numbers look even better. His ERA dropped to 4.06, as his K rate rose to 7.7 and his walk rate reached an incredibly low 2.31. In fact, over the last decade, among rookie pitchers with at least 175 IP, Anderson has the highest K/BB rate, the second fewest walks, and the second lowest BB rate. His GB% for the season was 50.9% and his xFIP was 3.61.

Anderson’s second half numbers will add a few bucks to his final price in most auctions, but I’m not going to complain. After the all star break, he went 6-4 with a 3.48 ERA, a 4.30 K/BB rate, and a FIP of 2.96. His K rate of 8.8 was a significant improvement over the 6.6 he posted in the first half. The only question mark here is his work load, but I’ll live with it. He’s going to be on a lot of my teams come 2009.

Fellow rookie Trevor Cahill came into 2009 as arguably the top prospect in the A’s system, even over Anderson, and like Anderson, started the season in the rotation. He may have been doomed from the start – he had less than 40 innings above A ball – but either way, the results weren’t pretty. His 4.63 ERA was bad. His 4.5 K rate, 1.25 K/BB rate, and 5.33 FIP were worse.

Of the two pitchers, I clearly like Anderson a lot better, for next season, and long term. Cahill’s value is limited to dynasty leagues, and deep AL only’s, but I’m not ready to completely give up yet, because he clearly wasn’t ready for the big leagues last season and his GB%, average control, and nasty low-minors K rates provide a good amount of hope. But his FIP says 2010 could be even worse. Rostering him is a risky move.

Answering our questions about Anderson, Cahill, and some more general questions is Nico Pemantle from Atheltics Nation:

FBP: First off, thank you for taking the time to answer a few questions for us. Easy question to start off. How do you see the Athletics finishing in 2010? Record?

Nico: As much as it pains me to say it, and as good as I think/hope the A’s will become 2011, I would have to predict a last place finish for Oakland in 2010. As the roster currently stands, Kurt Suzuki looks like he could be the team’s HR leader with around 15, there isn’t a single hitter I would really want batting #3 or #4, and 3B is still a black hole with SS in the uncertain hands of Cliff Pennington.

If and when Michael Taylor, Chris Carter, and Adrian Cardenas arrive, it’s a whole different story. But the 2010 team looks like a scrappy bunch that will alternate winning and losing games 3-2. I see this team, as currently constituted, going 79-83, with a strong second half as the offense improves upon the arrival of some good young hitting talent.

FBP: The main focus of my 2010 Athletics preview is Brett Anderson, who I think will emerge as an ace in 2010. You simply don’t see many 22 year olds who strikeout that many people, keeping the walks in check and inducing groundballs, and his second half performance showed significant across the board growth. What would you project Anderson’s ’10 line to be, and what do you think he still needs to work on?

Nico: I agree about how good Anderson is. Add to your praise the fact that he is unusually poised and mature — both unflappable and shrewd about how to work big league hitters. Assuming good health, and factoring in that he plays half his game in a very good pitcher’s park, Anderson is fully capable of putting up a line of something like 17-10, 3.30 ERA. Subtract some wins if the offense refuses to score any runs behind him, but the bullpen should be one of the best in baseball.

FBP: One concern I have about Anderson is the workload. In 2008, he threw 105 innings, compared to 175 last year. That jump raises somewhat of a red flag. How do you think he’ll handle it going forward?

Nico: My concern about Anderson is not so much the innings workload, but the fact that his natural physique is not the ideal athlete’s build. Now he’s been working hard, and apparently very successfully, with Bob Alejo (A’s Strength & Conditioning coach), but we’ve already seen Anderson miss a little time due a “stiff back” and a recurring blister. Anderson still, to me, has the potential to become another Justin Duchscherer — an ace when he’s out there, but often shelved due to this or that.

I’m less worried about the IP because Anderson, by nature, economizes his pitches, and not all innings are alike. The A’s kept him around 100 pitches every start and he just got a lot of innings out of 100 pitches because he throws quality strikes.

FBP: Going into last season, most rankings actually had Trevor Cahill, not Anderson, as the A’s top pitching prospect. He struggled quite a bit in 2009, but do you think he can correct that next year? Where did his strikeouts go? Should he start the year in the big league rotation, or maybe move back down to the upper minors, where he has very little experience?

Nico: “Cahill going forward” is the subject of much controversy on AN, because his peripherals were even worse than his basic stats, and some feel he was not only rushed unnecessarily but possibly damaged and/or exposed as not that good.

I’m a bit more optimistic on Cahill, because throughout the course of the season his changeup improved greatly and in August and September he developed a slider that he hung far less than he had hung the curve/knuckle-curve in April-July.

He’s also only 21, having already gotten big league experience and learned some key adjustments with his stuff. I don’t see any reason Cahill can’t be a very good pitcher in the future — but I imagine his breakthrough season will be 2011, not 2010, as he is very much a work-in-progress.

Specifically, he lacks the most element that is most essential for a major league pitcher: fastball command. Whenever Cahill develops the ability to throw his fastball consistently where he wants to, he will take off. That could happen in April, 2010 or never. My guess is it will happen somewhere in between, such as around the 2010 ASB.

FBP: How do you see the A’s outfield situation playing out with Taylor, Davis, Crisp, etc.? Do you think Taylor will see any substantial playing time in 2010?

Nico: Yes, but not in April. Partly because he’s had fairly little time in AAA and partly because it would be foolish to allow a slugger to become a “Super 2″ in arbitration (which tends to reward sluggers), Taylor should not make the team out of Spring Training. But if he tears it up in AAA, I don’t see why he can’t be called up in May or June, for keeps.

Until then, barring a trade I’d expect to see an April OF lineup of primarily Crisp, Davis, and Sweeney, which could be one of the best defensive OFs in baseball — as well as one of the most pathetic ones in the HR column.

FBP: Andrew Bailey was fantastic in 2009, but past him, who do you see at the top of the bullpen depth chart going into next season? When is Joey Devine expected back?

Nico: Partly because Devine is coming back from injury (he’s expected back for Spring Training, though this puts him at the top end of the recovery scale), I think Bailey will be the team’s closer and Devine the set-up man. Behind them you have Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler, and from the left side you can choose from Craig Breslow, Jerry Blevins, and Brad Kilby. That’s a pretty deep and generally fantastic bullpen.

FBP: We all know the A’s farm system is stacked, but for dynasty league owners, can you give us maybe one or two under the radar names?

Nico:Anthony Capra doesn’t get a lot of press but looks like he could be a very good pitching prospect. Rashun Dixon is raw but is also very young (18) and full of tools. Grant Desme strikes out a ton but has made recent strides and just tore up the AFL last month.

FBP: What Athletic do you think is most likely to exceed expectations in 2010? Most likely to “bust?”

Nico: Daric Barton is a “breakout candidate” for 2010. He failed when he was very young and immature but while he doesn’t have a lot of power he has a chance to be a “Scott Hatteberg-type” player: Something like a line of .290/.370/.430, with very good defense, is not out of the question for Barton.

On the flip side, I just don’t see Pennington hitting in the big leagues over a full season. I’d guess he’ll have AVG and OBP closer to .230/.300 with very little power — I think a .650 OPS is perfectly possible, in which case his defense will need to be pretty spectacular to make up for his hitting.

The Roy Halladay insanity.

Over the past day Roy Halladay has stolen back the spotlight from Curtis Granderson and Rich Harden, with rumors flying around that three teams are currently pursuing the righty; the Yankees, Angels, and Phillies, all seem to be legitimately interested. However, the rumored deals being talked about, and even more surprisingly, the reaction of media, team executives, and fans to these deals, have been ridiculous.

Let’s first look at what we have in Roy Halladay. Yes, he’s 32, but his skill set remains completely intact, with his K rate, K/BB rate, and velocity all at or around career highs. He’s pitched 220 or more innings the last four seasons, putting his injury-prone label behind him. Furthermore, his last two seasons, he has reached levels that he had not reached since his mid-20s, when he won a Cy Young.

So what did the Angels offer? Joe Saunders, Peter Bourjos, and Erick Aybar. Saunders has a career FIP of 4.63. Last year, his worst season to date, he had a FIP well over 5 and a K/BB rate around 1.6. He is about league average, if not slightly above league average, from a GB rate point of view, but when you’re striking out less than 5 batters per nine innings, and walking more than 3, you suck. Always. Pretty much no exceptions that I can think of over the past couple of decades. After that, it gets a bit better. Erick Aybar was actually fairly good last season. No, he isn’t much with the bat, although he did hit .312 with a .339 wOBA in 2009, a huge improvement over his previous seasons. Most of his value comes from good defense (career UZR/150 around 7). But that’s what we have here. He’s 25, so he could get better, but he’s always going to be a light hitting defensive shortstop. Bourjos is yet another solid MLB player at best. He’s a borderline top-100 prospect with good speed and defensive skills, but a poor stick and no power. So we are looking at one horrible player and two solid ones for Roy Halladay?

Even worse, people have been calling this a “big package” for one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the best deal out there. It’s just absurd.  The Angels have even hinted at the possibility of other players coming back in a deal, and the rumor was that Aybar was borderline untouchable earlier this off-season. What am I missing?

Joe Sauders had a 3.41 ERA in 2008. He also pitched a few good games down the stretch last year. This automatically makes him a “good young pitcher.” We don’t mention the fact that he had a 4.36 FIP in 2008, and a .267 BABIP, as well as the fact that his control completely fell apart last year. And Aybar hit .312, so he must be a good hitter right? And he has a great defensive reputation, right? He’s basically Elvis Andrus, except 25 years old, with much less speed and upside. He’s a solid player to have around, but people need to realize he’s nothing more than a light hitting, slightly above average starting Major League SS. And Bourjos… well I have no idea where that hype is coming from. He’s a solid young prospect, who could be a solid MLB player. But he’s not the kind of guy you build a package around for an ace.

People need to stop acting like this is a reasonable deal, just because the Blue Jays last GM (who, if you didn’t notice, wasn’t very smart) offered a similar package and had it turned down (allegedly). It was a stupid move by both teams, and I doubt the Blue Jays pull the trigger on this deal. If they do, it just signals that they are even more of a backwards thinking, poorly managed organization than they have been the past few seasons, which is saying something.

The Blue Jays can make the smart move, which is take offers from the top teams (Yanks, Angels, Phillies, and Red Sox), try and include the Mets (seriously, they’re farm system has some very nice players, especially compared to the crap they’d be getting from LA), and if they don’t get anything, offer him arbitration and take the draft picks. Or they could do the stupid thing and trade him for a bunch of role players. We all know how that worked out in Minnesota with Santana.

Just to go over a couple of the more reasonable rumored deals out there:

Another rumored deal out their involves the Phillies. This one isn’t so bad. The Phillies would send JA Happ and one of Michael Taylor/Domonic Brown for Halladay. Given the choice of Brown or Taylor, I take Taylor. Baseball America ranks Brown the top prospect in that system, and I know he is very talented, but he needs to develop more power to be a truly elite prospect, and I’m not sure it ever will. Taylor on the other hand is the real deal. He can hit for average, and has 30-30 upside at the big league level. He’s a pretty solid defender with a good arm and good speed.  Fantasy owners should remember this guy. As far as Happ, I’m not sold on him. He’s a solid mid rotation starter, but he doesn’t have any skill that sticks out. He’s pretty average across the board, and given his age (27) and average stuff, I think it’s safe to call him pretty, well, average. I know he won rookie of the year but his ERA will go up quite a bit next year. He could be solid but he wont be special. If I’m Torono, I ask the Phillies for Drabek and Taylor, and although that might be a bit much, they could end up going for it. If not, I’d still probably consider this deal, as it’s a lot better than what you’re getting from LA, and you may not be able to pull a prospect like Taylor out of the draft. If this is the best you’re getting, and it’s on the table as is, I’d definitely consider it.

We don’t know what they could get from New York at the moment, but the package I’m hearing is Hughes/Joba, Montero, and Melky, which at least in my opinion, blows the other two out of the water. A lesser package based on one of Hughes, Joba, or Montero is possible, and would still be worth considering.