2010 Bullpen Preview: AL East

Not a busy day in the baseball world Friday, so I decided to start my 2010 bullpen previews in the AL East.

New York Yankees:

Closer - Mariano Rivera.
Setup - Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, David Robertson?
Best pitcher - Rivera.

Rivera is as good ever. In 2009, Rivera’s ERA was under 2 for the sixth time in seven seasons, as he posted a 72/12 k to walk ratio, the second strait year his K/BB rate was 6+. He is 40 years old, but he just seems to get better every year. That said, their are several elite setup guys on this team. Recent comments from Brian Cashman indicate that, if the Yankees sign another starter, Chamberlain and Hughes will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, leaving the other one to likely setup Rivera. Chamberlain’s career numbers as a reliever are tremendous, with a 1.50 ERA and K rate of almost 11. Hughes’ as a reliever? A 1.40 ERA and a K/BB rate of 5. Lesser known setup option David Robertson also has an electric skill set. In 43 2/3 innings, he struck out 63 batters, for a K rate of 12.98, and a FIP of 3.05. Robertson could be worth rostering just for his ERA and Ks, but in the even that Chamberlain and Hughes end up on the rotation, Robertson would be the main setup guy, and his value would increase.

Boston Red Sox:

Closer - Jon Papelbon.
Setup - Daniel Bard.
Best pitcher - Papelbon.

His ERA may have improved in 2009, but a year after posting a near 10 K/BB rate, Papelbon struggled with his control and FB% for much of 2009. Still, his K rate stayed north of 10, and a FIP of 3.05, and an ERA of 1.85 show he’s still pitching at a high level. There has been talk that Papelbon will be moved this off-season, and that Daniel Bard will take his place. While I don’t think they’ll just give up on one of the best closers in the league over the past few seasons, Bard could handle it. The fireballer had a K rate of 11.5 in 2009, with a FIP of 3.38 and xFIP of 3.25. His average fastball velocity? 97.3. He improves his control and he could be one of the best closers in baseball. Don’t worry too much about Papelbon, but Bard is certainly worth an AL only shot for his Ks, ERA, and closing potential.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Closer - Rafael Soriano.
Setup - JP Howell.
Best pitcher - Soriano.

JP Howell spent much of last season as the Rays closer, saving 17 games with a 2.84 ERA. His K rate and groundball abilities make him a solid closing candidate, but the Rays went out and traded for former Braves closer/setup-man Rafael Soriano. Soriano has the skills to be an elite closer, with a 2.54 FIP last year, a 12.13 K rate, and a sub-3 xFIP. However, he spent much of 2004, 2005, and 2008 on the disabled list with a variety of injuries. For that reason, Soriano is a less than perfect fantasy option, and JP Howell is definitely still worth owning in AL only leagues. Former closer Grant Balfour is also an intriguing option given his ability to miss bats and previous success in the role. If anyone else emerges in this bullpen, keep an eye on the situation, because Soriano is a huge injury risk.

Baltimore Orioles:

Closer - Mike Gonzalez.
Setup - Kam Mickolio, Jim Johnson?
Best pitcher - Gonzalez.

The second former Brave on this list, Gonzalez can also dominate at times but has struggled with health. With 3.31 and 3.70 xFIPs the past two seasons, and around 11 K/9 , there’s no reason to believe he can’t perform at a high level. Past Gonzalez though, we get into a whole bunch of mediocrity. One intriguing name is 25 year old Kam Mickolio. Mickolio spent most of 2009 in AAA, where he posted a 3.11 FIP in 35 relief appearances. Once promoted to the Major Leagues, Mickolio struck out 14 batters in 13 2/3 innings with a 2.58 FIP. The 6-9, 256 pound righty throws a mid-90s fastball more than 80% of the time, and also mixes in a slider in the mid-80s. Worth watching if Gonzalez goes down. Finally, Jim Johnson ended last season as the Orioles main closer, but given his poor performance I doubt he gets another crack at it.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Closer - Jason Frasor.
Setup – Scott Downs.
Best pitcher - Downs.

This is the most uncertain bullpen situation in the division. When BJ Ryan landed on the DL early in the year, Scott Downs took over as closer. However, Downs battled his own injuries, and Jason Frasor ended the season as the Jays closer, dominating down the stretch. Ryan is out of the picture, and it seems to be between Downs and Frasor at this point. Downs probably has the slightly better skill set. In 2009, he struck out 43 batters while only walking 13, inducing groundballs at an awesome 55.7%. His xFIP was 3.18. Frasor also has a nice skill set, with a K rate of 8.74, nice control, and a 2.99 FIP. However, his flyball tendency makes him a little more prone to blow-ups. We’ll pencil Frasor in as the closer, as he ended there last season, but it could really be either one. Whoever gets the job to start the season is worth a good investment, especially Downs, as both are good enough to keep the job. Brandon League was also very good down the stretch, so he could end up in the mix.

End of season awards….

I have to do this, and I have to beat ESPN, so here goes….

AL

MVP – Alex Rodriguez - Alex Rodriguez was the best hitter in the American League this year. It’s just that simple. Rodriguez lead the league in OPS among batters with at least 500 plate appearances, and one of the top wOBA in the league. You could definitely throw Joe Mauer and Carlos Quentin in here, especially if you want to give it to a playoff team, but in the end I’ll give it to Arod. 

Cy Young – Cliff Lee - I’m not looking at wins or era so how does this guy win? Easy. He has great control, can get the strikeouts, and keeps the ball in the park. Add that all together and he leads Major League Baseball in tRA.

ROTY – Evan Longoria - He may be a little overrated, actually he is, but he lead AL rookies in HR, OBP, and OPS so he’s an easy pick for this award.

Reliever of the year – Mariano Rivera - Saves are a stupid category, the bottom line is that Rivera dominated like few pitchers have and is the best reliever in the league. Krod is very overrated. 

NL 

MVP – Albert Pujols - I don’t have to qualify this. Pujols. Is. God. 

Cy Young – Tim Lincecum – This might be surprising, as I had Brandon Webb winning this a month ago. However over the last month, Lincecum has dominated while Webb has fallen apart. This lead to Lincecum’s tRA ending up better than Webb and his strikeout lead getting even more insane. 

ROTY – Jay Bruce – Like Longoria, Bruce is an easy pick here and the guy we expected to win at the start of the year. Lead NL rookies in HR and finished second in SLG and OPS. 

Reliever of the year – Brad Lidge - Like Rivera, he didn’t lead his league in saves but he was just the best pitcher to close out games this season. He is the NL reliever of the year.

Rivera considering shoulder surgery, should be ok for 09

Yankees closer Mariano Rivera is considering shoulder surgery on what is describe as a “minor injury” by Yankees manager Joe Girardi. Although this may seem like a problem for Rivera owners who are looking to keep him (like me) it really isn’t. Rivera is old, but he also has an extremely consistant track record of staying healthy and making a late season DL stint. If you have him on your team and you need a few saves the last week you might be in trouble, but if you are in a race this late its a crap shoot anyway. A final decision should come on Monday.