Harden to Texas, Millwood to O’s.

Day three of the 2009 winter meetings has belonged to Texas GM Jon Daniels so far, who has done a fantastic job of improving his team going into 2010. The Rangers were a +44 run team last year, and with the addition of Rich Harden, and Hamilton, Kinsler, and maybe even Davis returning to 2008 form,  as well as the maturation of Feliz and Holland and the potential debut of Smoak, we are looking at a playoff contender next year.

Mid-afternoon, news broke that the Baltimore Orioles had acquire Kevin Millwood and $3 million for Chris Ray and a PTBN. This move was obviously a great deal for Texas. While Chris Ray is of little value, they get $9 million of Millwood’s $12 million deal off the books, allowing them to sign Rich Harden latter in the day. I question this move a bit for the Orioles simply because of Millwood’s cost. Let’s be clear – his 2009 ERA of 3.67 was incredibly lucky, and his FIP 4.80 was horrible. But, as we pointed out going into last year, his 2008 2.55 K/BB rate and 4.02 FIP were both quite solid. Bill James projects him at a 4.37 ERA and 175 innings next year, which seems perfectly reasonable, and to be honest, the O’s aren’t going to find 5 starters who can give them 175 innings of league average performance. However, if they wanted to spend $9 million, they should have spent it on Harden, or Sheets, or Piniero, or…. I could go on. Millwood just isn’t worth the price. Fantasy wise, please ignore Kevin Millwood. He’s in the exact opposite situation he was in last year, when he had solid underlying numbers but horrible production. Now his production is starting to look good, driving up his price, but his FIP and K/BB rate simply don’t support his ERA. And Ray sucks, but I think that’s obvious at this point.

The Rangers then turned around and used that extra cash to sign injury-prone but highly talented starter Rich Harden. Harden struggled a bit last season, and as a flyball pitcher Texas may not be too kind to him. His stuff was still there though, and his 10.91 K rate and 3.70 xFIP show he is still pitching at a high level. If he can keep the home runs in check, and improve the control a bit, and most importantly, stay healthy, he could be an ace caliber starter. He’ll cost the Rangers $7.5 million in 2010, with a team option of $11.5 million for 2011. He’s worth the risk for them, and could be a very solid fantasy sleeper in 2010. Just don’t count on him to stay healthy.

Who will be this year’s Cliff Lee?

So last year someone in your AL only auction, or mixed league draft, or whatever league you are in picked up Cliff Lee for a buck or two or in the last round. He went on to win 22 games with an ERA of 2.54. To figure out who “the next Cliff Lee” is we have to understand what Cliff Lee actually is. 

- A 29/30 year old starting pitcher. Not young, but not too old either. 

- Has had past success, but a couple of bad seasons since have knocked his value down close to zero. 
- Ks a healthy 6.5-7 batters a game but he’s no flame thrower so that wont get him noticed.
- History of good control. 
- Solid GB%. 

Now that last ones a bit tricky. Lee’s GB% was a solid but not spectacular 45% last year, however that’s about 10% more than in any previous season so we can safely say he wouldn’t have made this list pre-2008. Pitchers don’t just add 10% to their GB rate. What Lee did there was unusual and we really don’t need to account for it.

So not your, not too old either accounts for a good  number of the pitchers in the big leagues but #2 is where a few names pop up. Jeremy Bonderman and Kevin Millwood, although neither is exactly in that Cliff Lee age range, they are between 26 (JB) and 34 (KM) years old, so neither is a prospect or really getting up there in age either. We’ll move on to #3 with these two. 

A healthy k rate of around 7. Bonderman certainly fits this description well. In 2006 his K rate was 8.5, although it fell to 7.5 in 2007. 2008′s fall in K rate was do too injury. We can say that Jeremy Bonderman has a healthy K rate. Millwood also fits. K rates of 6.6, 6.4, 6.7 last few years wont get him noticed but wont hurt him either. 

#4 says history of good control. For Bonderman his BB rate was consistently under 3 between 2005-2008. Millwood is interesting. His K rates in 05 and 06 were 2.4 and 2.2 which happens to be very, very good. That number jumped to 3.5 in 2007, but went back down to 2.6 in 2008 including a ridiculously good 1.8 in the second half. I’m confident that both have control.

Now lets go to the final qualifier, a solid GB%. Millwood is a no brainer here, with GB%’s of 45%, 46%, and 41% the last few years. He fits right into Cliff Lee range, and his HR rate in Arlington (1.0 each of the past 3 years) is great. Bonderman on the other hand has been up and down HR rate wise. The last two years it’s been 1.1 and 1.2, while in 05 and 06 it was at 1.0 and .8. That might be a concern for some, but look at his GB%, consistently around 47% his entire career. He’s a solid GB pitcher that is sure to see a rebound in his HR rate.

So both of these guys have good K rates, great control, and a good GB%. Why are they so underrated? Well lets start with Bonderman. In 2007 his K rate dropped just a little bit. His HR rate skyrocketed (even though his GB% stayed above average) and his ERA was north of 5. This was entirely unsupported by his skill set, which still said he could put up a 3.5 ERA or better with a fantastic WHIP. 2008 was a different story. He picked up a BB for almost every K and his HR rate stayed high. He was eventually sent to the DL, which really explains his overall struggles. A healthy and less-unlucky Jeremy Bonderman is still a guy with a great K rate, great control, and a good GB%, a top 10 starting pitcher in the making. 

Millwood actually has a similar (although much longer) career to Cliff Lee. He was always a good pitcher, and one great year (2005 in Cleveland) got him signed to a big contract in Texas. There his ERA spiked despite K’ing 3 times as many as he BB and maintaining an OK HR rate. That was followed by a horrible 2007 in which his BB rate jumped by 1.3 and his K rate continued to fall. He may have looked done, but that was partially do to injuries and last year he showed that same skill set. 6.7 K/9, and a walk rate well under 3 (under 2 in the second half) as well as that solid HR rate. If not for a lot of bad luck, and a poor first half, Millwood would have been a very solid fantasy contributer. 

So who would I rather have? I’d have to take Bonderman. He has a history of elite skill sets and he’s playing in a more pitching friendly ballpark. He also happens to be about 7 years younger. But Millwood isn’t bad either. If he’s healthy, and avoids the bad luck, he’s basically a 34 year old version of Kevin Slowey and who wouldn’t take that. Of course he doesn’t have Slowey’s added bonus of a great ballpark and defense, but he also has a better lineup. He could post a sub-4 ERA with a great WHIP and with those guys hitting for him 15-18 wins making him a massive sleeper in AL only leagues.