2010 Bullpen Preview: AL East

Not a busy day in the baseball world Friday, so I decided to start my 2010 bullpen previews in the AL East.

New York Yankees:

Closer - Mariano Rivera.
Setup - Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, David Robertson?
Best pitcher - Rivera.

Rivera is as good ever. In 2009, Rivera’s ERA was under 2 for the sixth time in seven seasons, as he posted a 72/12 k to walk ratio, the second strait year his K/BB rate was 6+. He is 40 years old, but he just seems to get better every year. That said, their are several elite setup guys on this team. Recent comments from Brian Cashman indicate that, if the Yankees sign another starter, Chamberlain and Hughes will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, leaving the other one to likely setup Rivera. Chamberlain’s career numbers as a reliever are tremendous, with a 1.50 ERA and K rate of almost 11. Hughes’ as a reliever? A 1.40 ERA and a K/BB rate of 5. Lesser known setup option David Robertson also has an electric skill set. In 43 2/3 innings, he struck out 63 batters, for a K rate of 12.98, and a FIP of 3.05. Robertson could be worth rostering just for his ERA and Ks, but in the even that Chamberlain and Hughes end up on the rotation, Robertson would be the main setup guy, and his value would increase.

Boston Red Sox:

Closer - Jon Papelbon.
Setup - Daniel Bard.
Best pitcher - Papelbon.

His ERA may have improved in 2009, but a year after posting a near 10 K/BB rate, Papelbon struggled with his control and FB% for much of 2009. Still, his K rate stayed north of 10, and a FIP of 3.05, and an ERA of 1.85 show he’s still pitching at a high level. There has been talk that Papelbon will be moved this off-season, and that Daniel Bard will take his place. While I don’t think they’ll just give up on one of the best closers in the league over the past few seasons, Bard could handle it. The fireballer had a K rate of 11.5 in 2009, with a FIP of 3.38 and xFIP of 3.25. His average fastball velocity? 97.3. He improves his control and he could be one of the best closers in baseball. Don’t worry too much about Papelbon, but Bard is certainly worth an AL only shot for his Ks, ERA, and closing potential.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Closer - Rafael Soriano.
Setup - JP Howell.
Best pitcher - Soriano.

JP Howell spent much of last season as the Rays closer, saving 17 games with a 2.84 ERA. His K rate and groundball abilities make him a solid closing candidate, but the Rays went out and traded for former Braves closer/setup-man Rafael Soriano. Soriano has the skills to be an elite closer, with a 2.54 FIP last year, a 12.13 K rate, and a sub-3 xFIP. However, he spent much of 2004, 2005, and 2008 on the disabled list with a variety of injuries. For that reason, Soriano is a less than perfect fantasy option, and JP Howell is definitely still worth owning in AL only leagues. Former closer Grant Balfour is also an intriguing option given his ability to miss bats and previous success in the role. If anyone else emerges in this bullpen, keep an eye on the situation, because Soriano is a huge injury risk.

Baltimore Orioles:

Closer - Mike Gonzalez.
Setup - Kam Mickolio, Jim Johnson?
Best pitcher - Gonzalez.

The second former Brave on this list, Gonzalez can also dominate at times but has struggled with health. With 3.31 and 3.70 xFIPs the past two seasons, and around 11 K/9 , there’s no reason to believe he can’t perform at a high level. Past Gonzalez though, we get into a whole bunch of mediocrity. One intriguing name is 25 year old Kam Mickolio. Mickolio spent most of 2009 in AAA, where he posted a 3.11 FIP in 35 relief appearances. Once promoted to the Major Leagues, Mickolio struck out 14 batters in 13 2/3 innings with a 2.58 FIP. The 6-9, 256 pound righty throws a mid-90s fastball more than 80% of the time, and also mixes in a slider in the mid-80s. Worth watching if Gonzalez goes down. Finally, Jim Johnson ended last season as the Orioles main closer, but given his poor performance I doubt he gets another crack at it.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Closer - Jason Frasor.
Setup – Scott Downs.
Best pitcher - Downs.

This is the most uncertain bullpen situation in the division. When BJ Ryan landed on the DL early in the year, Scott Downs took over as closer. However, Downs battled his own injuries, and Jason Frasor ended the season as the Jays closer, dominating down the stretch. Ryan is out of the picture, and it seems to be between Downs and Frasor at this point. Downs probably has the slightly better skill set. In 2009, he struck out 43 batters while only walking 13, inducing groundballs at an awesome 55.7%. His xFIP was 3.18. Frasor also has a nice skill set, with a K rate of 8.74, nice control, and a 2.99 FIP. However, his flyball tendency makes him a little more prone to blow-ups. We’ll pencil Frasor in as the closer, as he ended there last season, but it could really be either one. Whoever gets the job to start the season is worth a good investment, especially Downs, as both are good enough to keep the job. Brandon League was also very good down the stretch, so he could end up in the mix.

The Roy Halladay insanity.

Over the past day Roy Halladay has stolen back the spotlight from Curtis Granderson and Rich Harden, with rumors flying around that three teams are currently pursuing the righty; the Yankees, Angels, and Phillies, all seem to be legitimately interested. However, the rumored deals being talked about, and even more surprisingly, the reaction of media, team executives, and fans to these deals, have been ridiculous.

Let’s first look at what we have in Roy Halladay. Yes, he’s 32, but his skill set remains completely intact, with his K rate, K/BB rate, and velocity all at or around career highs. He’s pitched 220 or more innings the last four seasons, putting his injury-prone label behind him. Furthermore, his last two seasons, he has reached levels that he had not reached since his mid-20s, when he won a Cy Young.

So what did the Angels offer? Joe Saunders, Peter Bourjos, and Erick Aybar. Saunders has a career FIP of 4.63. Last year, his worst season to date, he had a FIP well over 5 and a K/BB rate around 1.6. He is about league average, if not slightly above league average, from a GB rate point of view, but when you’re striking out less than 5 batters per nine innings, and walking more than 3, you suck. Always. Pretty much no exceptions that I can think of over the past couple of decades. After that, it gets a bit better. Erick Aybar was actually fairly good last season. No, he isn’t much with the bat, although he did hit .312 with a .339 wOBA in 2009, a huge improvement over his previous seasons. Most of his value comes from good defense (career UZR/150 around 7). But that’s what we have here. He’s 25, so he could get better, but he’s always going to be a light hitting defensive shortstop. Bourjos is yet another solid MLB player at best. He’s a borderline top-100 prospect with good speed and defensive skills, but a poor stick and no power. So we are looking at one horrible player and two solid ones for Roy Halladay?

Even worse, people have been calling this a “big package” for one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the best deal out there. It’s just absurd.  The Angels have even hinted at the possibility of other players coming back in a deal, and the rumor was that Aybar was borderline untouchable earlier this off-season. What am I missing?

Joe Sauders had a 3.41 ERA in 2008. He also pitched a few good games down the stretch last year. This automatically makes him a “good young pitcher.” We don’t mention the fact that he had a 4.36 FIP in 2008, and a .267 BABIP, as well as the fact that his control completely fell apart last year. And Aybar hit .312, so he must be a good hitter right? And he has a great defensive reputation, right? He’s basically Elvis Andrus, except 25 years old, with much less speed and upside. He’s a solid player to have around, but people need to realize he’s nothing more than a light hitting, slightly above average starting Major League SS. And Bourjos… well I have no idea where that hype is coming from. He’s a solid young prospect, who could be a solid MLB player. But he’s not the kind of guy you build a package around for an ace.

People need to stop acting like this is a reasonable deal, just because the Blue Jays last GM (who, if you didn’t notice, wasn’t very smart) offered a similar package and had it turned down (allegedly). It was a stupid move by both teams, and I doubt the Blue Jays pull the trigger on this deal. If they do, it just signals that they are even more of a backwards thinking, poorly managed organization than they have been the past few seasons, which is saying something.

The Blue Jays can make the smart move, which is take offers from the top teams (Yanks, Angels, Phillies, and Red Sox), try and include the Mets (seriously, they’re farm system has some very nice players, especially compared to the crap they’d be getting from LA), and if they don’t get anything, offer him arbitration and take the draft picks. Or they could do the stupid thing and trade him for a bunch of role players. We all know how that worked out in Minnesota with Santana.

Just to go over a couple of the more reasonable rumored deals out there:

Another rumored deal out their involves the Phillies. This one isn’t so bad. The Phillies would send JA Happ and one of Michael Taylor/Domonic Brown for Halladay. Given the choice of Brown or Taylor, I take Taylor. Baseball America ranks Brown the top prospect in that system, and I know he is very talented, but he needs to develop more power to be a truly elite prospect, and I’m not sure it ever will. Taylor on the other hand is the real deal. He can hit for average, and has 30-30 upside at the big league level. He’s a pretty solid defender with a good arm and good speed.  Fantasy owners should remember this guy. As far as Happ, I’m not sold on him. He’s a solid mid rotation starter, but he doesn’t have any skill that sticks out. He’s pretty average across the board, and given his age (27) and average stuff, I think it’s safe to call him pretty, well, average. I know he won rookie of the year but his ERA will go up quite a bit next year. He could be solid but he wont be special. If I’m Torono, I ask the Phillies for Drabek and Taylor, and although that might be a bit much, they could end up going for it. If not, I’d still probably consider this deal, as it’s a lot better than what you’re getting from LA, and you may not be able to pull a prospect like Taylor out of the draft. If this is the best you’re getting, and it’s on the table as is, I’d definitely consider it.

We don’t know what they could get from New York at the moment, but the package I’m hearing is Hughes/Joba, Montero, and Melky, which at least in my opinion, blows the other two out of the water. A lesser package based on one of Hughes, Joba, or Montero is possible, and would still be worth considering.

Joba and the Red Sox

Sad news for Yankees fans, Joba Chamberlain was arrested for DUI in Nebrakska. The last time this happened within the organization it was Steve Swindle and we all saw his career go up in smoke. Doesn’t seem like Joba is going to miss any time, and I doubt this hurts his development but its not a good thing at all.

Better news though for Yankees fans comes from this article by John Heyman in which he basically says the Yankees will be going after everyone with a pulse this offseason and throwing all of their money at them. Either Cashman has finally realized minor leaguers are unproven midget versions of career backups or he has completely lost control of this organization. Either way, this will probably help the Yankees. 

And finally the Red Sox won last night again, forcing a game 7 in Tampa. My original prediction for this series was Sox in 7 and I’m sticking with it. I did think that Kazmir would slam the doors on the Sox a couple of days ago, but I guess that proves how impossible it is to predict individual baseball games. 

I’ll try to write something about how the projections are going, but lets just say they are going to take a while! Right now I’m on my fourth player on my first team but I’m speading things up a bit and the kit will be ready on time.

AL News & Notes

The Detroit Tigers have called up Chris Lambert to make his major league debut Tuesday. Lambert has displayed good skills since being drafted in the first round of the 2004 major league draft and he is finally being rewarded with a major league start. Lambert’s 124/48 K/BB rate is elite, however beware of his age as he is 25, much older than the average AA player.  Still, he is worth a flier based on some good minor league stats.

Kansas City Royal’s third basemen Alex Gordon has been placed on the 15 day disabled list with a torn muscle in his left quadriceps. Gordon has made strides in his second season, raising his on base percentage 45 points (.300-.345) and his slugging percentage 9 more points to .420. He has still struggled though, loosing his already minimal fantasy value with 7 less steals and 1 less home run than last season. Alberto Callaspo was activated from the DL to fill Gordon’s spot. Callaspo has little fantasy value with no home runs and a .330 slugging percentage; however he should hit around .300 based on his 91% CT%. I would still recommend Ramon Vazquez if he is still available, however if he isn’t I would suggest taking a flier on Daniel Murphy who is hitting well over .350, with a .466 OBP. His minor league numbers, while not nearly as impressive, are pretty good. This season at AA he hit over .300 with an over .370 OBP, 13 home runs, and 14 steals. Murphy is a decent replacement.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Joba Chamberlain threw off the mound on Saturday for the first time since being put on the disabled list earlier this month. Chamberlain said that “nothing tightened up” and “everything felt good.” The Yankees hope that they can activate Chamberlain before the minor league season ends. Replacing Chamberlain in the rotation Saturday was Carl Pavano, making his first start since last April. Pavano pitched 2 and 2/3 innings, striking out 2 and walking 1. He gave up 3 earned runs.

Texas Rangers all star second basemen Ian Kinsler would like to make a September return he says but he doesn’t want to risk his future. This is a significant improvement over a few days ago, when his situation looked grim and it appeared his season would be over. You got to hope Kinsler gets back but definitely try not to depend on him.

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Shaun Marcum has been demoted to AAA. Marcum has struggled since returning from the disabled list, however his hot start had him on a lot of fantasy teams and for good reason. Marcum’s K/BB rate of 109/43 is good, however his 21 home runs have really killed him, as evident in his 4.3 plus ERA. Marcum does have the potential to make a huge impact and will be missed by fantasy teams if this ends up as a long term move. In the meantime I would suggest picking up one of the high skill waiver wire guys such as Randy Wolf or Kevin Slowey.