Playoff predictions 08

I’m working on a formula for this but I don’t have one yet so I’m just going to look at the numbers and take a guess. Lets start with tonight’s Twins vs. White Sox game.

Playoff Game

Twins vs. White Sox This is one game so it is even more of a crapshoot than usual but the White Sox are the better team so I am going to stick with them. Plus Nick Blackburn kind of sucks. 

ALDS

White Sox @ Rays I’m going to have to go with the Rays here. They are clearly the better team (Baseball Prospectus has them at 10 more adjusted wins) and they are the more rested team. If the White Sox get into this game they will have won 3 straight games against 3 different teams, they will be tired and might let up a bit. If they were a lot better than the Rays I might consider giving them the nod but it’s the other way around. I think the Rays have a shot to sweep, but the Sox might be able to drag it out a few games so I’ll take them in 4.

Red Sox @ Angels This might look like a hard game to pick but it really isn’t. The Angels might be on fire, but they really aren’t nearly as good as everyone thinks. They are inpatient, they run way to much, they have no concept of sabermetrics, and they just get way to lucky sometimes. Baseball Prospectus has them adjusted to 84 wins, with the Red Sox all the way up at 102. The Red Sox have a much better team with sabermetrics gods like Kevin Youkillis and Dustin Pedroia. I’m picking them in 3 games. This will not be close. 

NLDS

Brewers @ Phillies This is really difficult to pick. Both teams are very close in expected records, they have virtually identical wOBA’s, and the while the Brewers have a much better rotation the Phillies have a much better bullpen. In the end all these factors even out, and even though the Phillies are the hottest team in baseball, I can’t see anyone getting to Sheets or Sabathia. I’m going Brewers in 5. 

Dodgers @ Cubs The Cubs are the best team in the NL and even though the Dodgers are good, they just can’t mach Chicago’s rotation or offense. Chicago in 3 or 4. 

CS 

Red Sox @ Rays This is another really, really difficult game to pick. I will be rooting for the Rays, and I do think they have a shot, but in the end, realistically, the Red Sox are better the better team. Sox in 6. 

Phillies @ Cubs This is almost a no-brainer. The Cubs are much better and their home field advantage will really help. The Cubs are going to get to there first world series since the 40′s, I’m going Cubs in 5. 

World Series 

Cubs @ Red Sox I don’t know what to say about this series. We though we would se this in 2003, we didn’t. The Cubs haven’t won in 100 years, while the Red Sox have won twice in the last 4. Although the Red Sox have 8 more adjusted wins, looking at some other stats makes this really close. The Cubs have a substantial tRA advantage in their rotation, although some of that is because they are in the NFC. The bullpen’s are about the same and the Red Sox have a better offense. This could be a great series, but I think I’m going with the Cubs in 7. This could change by the world series though.   

Saturday column – Chad Billingsley, I told you so!

Well its 2 AM and I want to get my Saturday column, so for some ideas I took a look at my old blog, and found this post:

Most likely to join games elite at the pitchers position? This is not a list of breakouts because some of these guys allready have. Not even ecatly a list of sleepers because some of these guys are going pretty high. This is a list of people most likely because of age, stuff, skills, etc. to join the games top 15 or 20 pitchers in 2008.

Now the top guy on my list was none other than Chad Billingsley. I love Chad Billingsley. All March I told everyone on my blog, forums, and on mock draft central that Chad Billingley was going to win or compete for the Cy Young in 2008. Heres the exact post:

I really like Chad Billingsley. There are plenty of reasons to. Starting with the fact that he is a 23 year old starting pitcher with a strong lineup in a pitchers park and a pitchers division. From more of a stats standpoint Billingsley had a 8.4 k/9 in the second half as a starter including a 9+ k/9 in September. Also consider his era of 3.03 in the rotation and you have a Cy Young candidate over a full year.

I told you so. Why wouldnt people listen? This guy was set to be Johan Santana. He had a bad April, leaguemates dropped him, and I pounced.

So lets take a look at the season this guy is having. In April Chad Billingsley had a 5.21 ERA and a few too many walks. He also had 13 strikeouts per nine innings and an xERA of 3.75. After that he never looked back. Sure he didn’t strikeout as many guys the rest of the season, but he gave up less walks and lowered his ERA to around 3. He has a K/BB rate of 2.6, more than a strikeout per 9 innings, and about half a home run per 9. He also has a tRA of 3.40, mcuh lower than that of first rounders Johan Santana and Jake Peavy.

So what does this mean? Dont pay attention to ERA’s, espicialy in April. The guy was having an amazing month, people just looked at his ERA and said “boy this guy sucks.” Oh an also when I publish my draft kit in February read it and listen at all costs!