More on Javy Vazquez

Just how good is Javier Vazquez? How hard could it possibly be to answer that question? I mean, he’s 33. He’s been in the big leagues since he was 21, and has been incredible durable, with 198+ innings every year since 2000, and at least 154 every year of his career. He’s thrown almost 2500 innings in his career. That said, it’s actually a fairly difficult question, and one surrounded by much debate.

Even the stat-heads are somewhat stumped by Javy. On one hand, he’s posted a FIP under 4 every year but one this decade. On the other hand, his ERA since 2004 is 4.22. Not that a 4.22 ERA and 200 innings is a bad thing, but it’s a far cry from his 2009 Cy Young caliber performance, or even the 3.74 FIP he posted in 2008.

It seems almost impossible that a pitcher could have that drastic a split over such a large sample size. But we do have to remember one thing: FIP looks at a pitchers skill, ignoring team defense and ballpark. And boy has Vazquez been killed by those two factors. Since 2004, his teams have ranked 30th, 27th, 28th, 27th, 21st, and 19th in defense.

But let’s take a look at this, year by year:

2004 – Vazquez’s ’04 season was a tale of two halves. In the first half, Vazquez had a 3.54 ERA and near 3 K/BB rate, making the All Star team and looking like New York’s ace at only 27 years old. His second half was a disaster though, with an ERA of over 7 and a K/BB rate under 2. What happened? Vazquez was playing hurt, and it clearly effected his performance. This was essentially the first, and only major injury in Vazquez’s career, and he has said he didn’t really know how to handle it.

2005 – After being traded for Randy Johnson, Vazquez proceeded to post a 3.31 xFIP. Only one problem. His HR/FB rate was an obscene 16.3%, leading to an ERA of 4.42. He also suffered from a defense that ranked 27th in the league. Vazquez’s ’05 HR/FB rate was unusual, as he has been around league average over his career, so don’t worry about a trend here.

2006 – His first year with the White Sox, Vazquez had another horrible year. Why? Two reasons. First, a .321 BABIP, due mostly to pitching in front of the team ranking 28th in the league in UZR, and second, an uncharacteristically low 65.8% LOB%. Again, no trend here except bad luck.

2007 – Finally, some good luck for Vazquez. His 3.8 FIP translated to a 3.74 ERA, and his BABIP and strand rates were right around league average.

2008 - Another unlucky year for Vazquez. This time, the culprit was a high BABIP of .328 and a slightly lower than average LOB%, leading to an ERA almost 100 points higher tha his FIP.

We’ve gone over 2009 before, but basically, Vazquez saw healthy improvement across the board, and a pretty good BABIP and LOB%.

How can we explain this? It’s difficult, because there doesn’t seem to be a significant trend here. He’s almost never hurt – except for 2004. He almost always posts league average HR/FB rates – except for 2005. And while his strand rate may have hurt him a bit in ’06 and ’08, it’s generally pretty standard over his career. His ’06 and ’08 BABIPs were very high, but he was playing in front of horrible defenses, and his career BABIP, while also a few points above league average, is certainly within normal range.

There is certainly a trend here of a pitcher under-performing compared to his FIP and xFIP. However, there is something to be said about his generally horrible luck and the fact that his BABIP, LOB%, and so on are pretty standard over this large sample size. We may never know why Vazquez has performed at a much different level than his skill set indicates he should, but my best guess? A combination of incredibly bad luck, horrible defense, and several big time hitters parks. Essentially, when something goes right for Javy, something else usually goes wrong, leading to only a couple of seasons since 2004 in which he has matched his FIP. Considering the situations he has been in, it’s not such a huge surprise.

What does this mean going forward? Only time will tell. The Yankees actually have a solid defense, ranking 18th in the league last season before swapping Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera for Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner, which should certainly help. This is actually a pretty good defensive outfield, as Swisher is average, and both Gardner and Granderson are stud defenders. That’s a good thing given his FB%. His home ball park… another story, and we could see his HR/FB rate jump a bit, although 2005 isn’t going to happen again, baring horrible luck.

Personally, I expect Vazquez to be in the 3.75 range ERA wise, with over 200 Ks and somewhere around 15-20 wins. While he’s unlikely to repeat his 2009 season, he should be a very solid #2/#3 starter for the Yankees, as well as for your fantasy teams, and while his ERA/FIP trend is troubling, there doesn’t seem to be a trend showing it too be more than bad luck.