Cano could be headed to Los Angeles

According to multiple sources, including ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are in talks about a possible trade that would send Robinson Cano to the Dodgers.

Olney reports that the Yankees preferred package would include either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley and assuming that offered is turned down they would focus their attention on outfielder Matt Kemp.

Early this week, there were rumors that the Yankees would swap Cano for Matt Kemp and Russell Martin, however those talks died down. If the Yankees want to make a serious move for those players together, I would assume an additional prospect or two would have to be added, probably of the caliber of a Philip Hughes or Ian Kennedy.

Even if the Yankees are unable to trade Cano to the Dodgers, it is highly likely they would find another team willing to pay big for the second basemen. Although Cano had a poor season in 2008, he was considered almost untouchable a year ago, even in talks for Johan Santana, because of his production early in his career and the length of time until arbitration. If the Yankees were to trade Cano it is likely that Orlando Hudson would be headed to New York. Olney reports that the Yankees have had “internal discussions” regarding Hudson, and that if Cano was traded he would be signed.

Robinson Cano’s struggles in 2008 were greatly documented by the New York media. Cano, who had hit .342 and .307 the previous two season with an OPS+  over 120 in both season, was expected by many to make a big leap in 2008. Not only did his average go down to .271 but his defense got progressively worse and  his OBP dropped to .305. His 08 OBP was lower than his average in 2007. Although there are many theories as to why Cano struggled in 2008, most people point to him missing Larry Bowa. Cano and Bowa had grown very close during the 2007 season and was missed by Cano last year. Not only is Bowa on the Dodgers, the team Cano is rumored to be headed to, but so is Joe Torre who was also instrumental in Cano’s success.  While Cano did struggle in 08 the Dodgers may be expecting him to turn it around with Torre and Bowa, something he may be able to do.

Of the potential packages coming back for the Yankees, the most impressive one is probably Matt Kemp and Russell Martin. Although it is unlikely the Yankees get this kind of package just for Cano, it is worth looking at as this deal could grow and both players could potentially end up on the Yankees during the 09 season. Matt Kemp is an impressive young outfielder with a large skill set who struggled last season when his playing time was reduced. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that Kemp can hit in the .300 range with a .375-.400 OBP and a high SLG, as he showed this skill set in the 2007 season. Kemp is 24 and only going to improve, and he fits right into the Yankees gapping whole in center field.

As for Russell Martin he has proven over the last few years to be one of the better catchers in baseball. Although his power decreased last season, he made significant strides in OBP while walking more and striking out less. He will be 26 by spring and should be entering the prime of his career. With Jorge Posada aging and his injuries piling up it makes sense that Martin would slide in at catcher and Posada would DH.

I doubt the Yankees are able to pull off both Martin and Kemp, and it seems far more likely that Matt Kemp would be in the trade than Russell Martin. But according to Buster Olney the Yankees would prefer a package that included either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley. I doubt the Dodgers would be sending either of them away, however it is possible the Yankees could get something done that would include one of the young stud pitchers.

Saturday column – Chad Billingsley, I told you so!

Well its 2 AM and I want to get my Saturday column, so for some ideas I took a look at my old blog, and found this post:

Most likely to join games elite at the pitchers position? This is not a list of breakouts because some of these guys allready have. Not even ecatly a list of sleepers because some of these guys are going pretty high. This is a list of people most likely because of age, stuff, skills, etc. to join the games top 15 or 20 pitchers in 2008.

Now the top guy on my list was none other than Chad Billingsley. I love Chad Billingsley. All March I told everyone on my blog, forums, and on mock draft central that Chad Billingley was going to win or compete for the Cy Young in 2008. Heres the exact post:

I really like Chad Billingsley. There are plenty of reasons to. Starting with the fact that he is a 23 year old starting pitcher with a strong lineup in a pitchers park and a pitchers division. From more of a stats standpoint Billingsley had a 8.4 k/9 in the second half as a starter including a 9+ k/9 in September. Also consider his era of 3.03 in the rotation and you have a Cy Young candidate over a full year.

I told you so. Why wouldnt people listen? This guy was set to be Johan Santana. He had a bad April, leaguemates dropped him, and I pounced.

So lets take a look at the season this guy is having. In April Chad Billingsley had a 5.21 ERA and a few too many walks. He also had 13 strikeouts per nine innings and an xERA of 3.75. After that he never looked back. Sure he didn’t strikeout as many guys the rest of the season, but he gave up less walks and lowered his ERA to around 3. He has a K/BB rate of 2.6, more than a strikeout per 9 innings, and about half a home run per 9. He also has a tRA of 3.40, mcuh lower than that of first rounders Johan Santana and Jake Peavy.

So what does this mean? Dont pay attention to ERA’s, espicialy in April. The guy was having an amazing month, people just looked at his ERA and said “boy this guy sucks.” Oh an also when I publish my draft kit in February read it and listen at all costs!