2010 Bullpen Preview: AL East

Not a busy day in the baseball world Friday, so I decided to start my 2010 bullpen previews in the AL East.

New York Yankees:

Closer - Mariano Rivera.
Setup - Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, David Robertson?
Best pitcher - Rivera.

Rivera is as good ever. In 2009, Rivera’s ERA was under 2 for the sixth time in seven seasons, as he posted a 72/12 k to walk ratio, the second strait year his K/BB rate was 6+. He is 40 years old, but he just seems to get better every year. That said, their are several elite setup guys on this team. Recent comments from Brian Cashman indicate that, if the Yankees sign another starter, Chamberlain and Hughes will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, leaving the other one to likely setup Rivera. Chamberlain’s career numbers as a reliever are tremendous, with a 1.50 ERA and K rate of almost 11. Hughes’ as a reliever? A 1.40 ERA and a K/BB rate of 5. Lesser known setup option David Robertson also has an electric skill set. In 43 2/3 innings, he struck out 63 batters, for a K rate of 12.98, and a FIP of 3.05. Robertson could be worth rostering just for his ERA and Ks, but in the even that Chamberlain and Hughes end up on the rotation, Robertson would be the main setup guy, and his value would increase.

Can Daniel Bard close?

Boston Red Sox:

Closer - Jon Papelbon.
Setup - Daniel Bard.
Best pitcher - Papelbon.

His ERA may have improved in 2009, but a year after posting a near 10 K/BB rate, Papelbon struggled with his control and FB% for much of 2009. Still, his K rate stayed north of 10, and a FIP of 3.05, and an ERA of 1.85 show he’s still pitching at a high level. There has been talk that Papelbon will be moved this off-season, and that Daniel Bard will take his place. While I don’t think they’ll just give up on one of the best closers in the league over the past few seasons, Bard could handle it. The fireballer had a K rate of 11.5 in 2009, with a FIP of 3.38 and xFIP of 3.25. His average fastball velocity? 97.3. He improves his control and he could be one of the best closers in baseball. Don’t worry too much about Papelbon, but Bard is certainly worth an AL only shot for his Ks, ERA, and closing potential.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Closer - Rafael Soriano.
Setup - JP Howell.
Best pitcher - Soriano.

JP Howell spent much of last season as the Rays closer, saving 17 games with a 2.84 ERA. His K rate and groundball abilities make him a solid closing candidate, but the Rays went out and traded for former Braves closer/setup-man Rafael Soriano. Soriano has the skills to be an elite closer, with a 2.54 FIP last year, a 12.13 K rate, and a sub-3 xFIP. However, he spent much of 2004, 2005, and 2008 on the disabled list with a variety of injuries. For that reason, Soriano is a less than perfect fantasy option, and JP Howell is definitely still worth owning in AL only leagues. Former closer Grant Balfour is also an intriguing option given his ability to miss bats and previous success in the role. If anyone else emerges in this bullpen, keep an eye on the situation, because Soriano is a huge injury risk.

Baltimore Orioles:

Closer - Mike Gonzalez.
Setup - Kam Mickolio, Jim Johnson?
Best pitcher - Gonzalez.

The second former Brave on this list, Gonzalez can also dominate at times but has struggled with health. With 3.31 and 3.70 xFIPs the past two seasons, and around 11 K/9 , there’s no reason to believe he can’t perform at a high level. Past Gonzalez though, we get into a whole bunch of mediocrity. One intriguing name is 25 year old Kam Mickolio. Mickolio spent most of 2009 in AAA, where he posted a 3.11 FIP in 35 relief appearances. Once promoted to the Major Leagues, Mickolio struck out 14 batters in 13 2/3 innings with a 2.58 FIP. The 6-9, 256 pound righty throws a mid-90s fastball more than 80% of the time, and also mixes in a slider in the mid-80s. Worth watching if Gonzalez goes down. Finally, Jim Johnson ended last season as the Orioles main closer, but given his poor performance I doubt he gets another crack at it.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Closer - Jason Frasor.
Setup – Scott Downs.
Best pitcher - Downs.

This is the most uncertain bullpen situation in the division. When BJ Ryan landed on the DL early in the year, Scott Downs took over as closer. However, Downs battled his own injuries, and Jason Frasor ended the season as the Jays closer, dominating down the stretch. Ryan is out of the picture, and it seems to be between Downs and Frasor at this point. Downs probably has the slightly better skill set. In 2009, he struck out 43 batters while only walking 13, inducing groundballs at an awesome 55.7%. His xFIP was 3.18. Frasor also has a nice skill set, with a K rate of 8.74, nice control, and a 2.99 FIP. However, his flyball tendency makes him a little more prone to blow-ups. We’ll pencil Frasor in as the closer, as he ended there last season, but it could really be either one. Whoever gets the job to start the season is worth a good investment, especially Downs, as both are good enough to keep the job. Brandon League was also very good down the stretch, so he could end up in the mix.

Tex in Pinstripes

Pedroia given $40.5 Million, GM’s continue to pay for production over position

I’m not a huge Dustin Pedroia fan by any stretch of the imagination. He’s one of those players that the fans and the media love. You know the kind that’s entirely overrated because they’re 5 feet tall and have no business being as good as they are. But, as I said back in September, Dustin Pedroia is probably the third best second basemen in the league behind Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler. That is why I was so surprised as to the amount of money he is going to be getting paid (6.75 million a year) as compared to other players in a similar ranking at their position. 

Lets start at first base. Because of the number of quality first basemen, you would expect to pay less for the third base guy at first base than at second base. However, if we assume that Justin Morneau is the third best guy at first base, we can see that in fact this is not the case. Justin Morneau makes over 8 million a year. 

We can also look at shortstop, another position with far more depth and elite players. Jimmy Rollins is also making over 8 million dollars a year. In the outfield, Matt Holliday is making over 9 million a year at another position of depth. 

When we look at another position of weakness however it reveals the almost reverse supply and demand economics of baseball. At catcher we see guys like Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez making around 6 million a year while putting up elite numbers. Ok maybe Martinez wasn’t “elite” last year but he was definitely “elite” when he signed his contract. 

The point is that MLB GMs are looking more at overall value and production than anything to do with position scarcity. Although completely ignoring position scarcity would be foolish, it is an important lesson in both real and fantasy baseball not to let it make your decisions. I think we can agree that Matt Holiday put up better numbers than Pedroia or Mauer, even if it would be easier to replace him. In the end the Red Sox made the right choice. They looked at the situation, saw they had an elite second basemen, and decided to sign him knowing they had Dustin Pedroia, not Matt Holliday.

Joba and the Red Sox

Sad news for Yankees fans, Joba Chamberlain was arrested for DUI in Nebrakska. The last time this happened within the organization it was Steve Swindle and we all saw his career go up in smoke. Doesn’t seem like Joba is going to miss any time, and I doubt this hurts his development but its not a good thing at all.

Better news though for Yankees fans comes from this article by John Heyman in which he basically says the Yankees will be going after everyone with a pulse this offseason and throwing all of their money at them. Either Cashman has finally realized minor leaguers are unproven midget versions of career backups or he has completely lost control of this organization. Either way, this will probably help the Yankees. 

And finally the Red Sox won last night again, forcing a game 7 in Tampa. My original prediction for this series was Sox in 7 and I’m sticking with it. I did think that Kazmir would slam the doors on the Sox a couple of days ago, but I guess that proves how impossible it is to predict individual baseball games. 

I’ll try to write something about how the projections are going, but lets just say they are going to take a while! Right now I’m on my fourth player on my first team but I’m speading things up a bit and the kit will be ready on time.

How good is Dustin Pedroia?

It is understandable why broadcasters and journalists love Dustin Pedroia. He is small, scrappy, a “baseball player.” What I don’t find understandable is a recent campaign to have this guy voted MVP of the AL, lead by Mr. Red Sox Homer Peter Gammons. A lot of people love Gammons, and you can’t deny that he has the connections in baseball, but when it comes to the Red Sox he can’t help it. But I could be wrong about Pedroia. Going on some basic stats he looks overrated and lucky, but if we dig a little deeper we can find the final answer. The big thing people point at with Pedroia is his batting average. Certainly .326 is good but does it mean anything? Do his underlying statistics support it?

The short answer is yes, the underlying statistics support his batting average. We will go into whether it means anything latter. First he makes a ton of contact. He made contact with the ball an elite 92% of the time in 2008, matching his 2007 numbers. He had an exceptional batting eye of .96 BB/K, however it has been blown out of proportion in the press. Its good, but its not as good as his number last year and not nearly as good as, for example, Albert Pujols who has a BB/K ratio of almost 2. Based on these statistics, it is safe to say that Pedroia will hit between .315 and .320 for the foreseeable future, however we need to figure out what that is worth.

The big point I make against Pedroia is that yes, he does get a lot of hits and almost never strikeouts but he also almost never walks. He has a BA of .324 and an OBP of .376. While we can see that a hit has value, so does a walk and his combined hits and walks do not add up to nearly as many trips on base as even some of his teammates (see: Kevin Youkillis). We can also take a look at his slugging percentage of just under .500. Its not bad at all, but it does not put him in the elite category of second basemen. Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dan Uggla all have higher SLG and OPS, while Utley, Brian Roberts, and Mark DeRosa all have higher OBP. This tells us that Pedroia is good at getting on base, and getting extra bases, but he is not the best at his position, or even at his position in his league. We can use one more statistic to combine these and that is wOBA. Pedroia ends up 26th in major league baseball and third at his position behind Utley and Kinsler. By looking at his value and underlying skill we can see that the true Dustin Pedroia, though one of the best second basemen in the league, is not in fact anywhere near MVP level.

That answers the question of his real baseball value, however it is a little different in fantasy. I still don’t think he reaches Kinsler or Utley level, but in fantasy baseball it doesn’t matter if he benefits from the team he is on or if he doesn’t walk enough. Pedroia is a safe bet to hit .315 while going 20-20 and on that Red Sox team he should score 100 runs and drive in 100 runs. I still don’t think he is an elite real baseball player, but his fantasy value is undeniable. When my final rankings come out in the draft kit you can get a more decisive answer about where I put him, but right now I think I will have him slotted right behind Utley and Kinsler.

NL News & Notes

AL News & Notes

New York – With All Star Closer Billy Wagner out indefinitely, possibly for the year, the Mets must turn to their shaky bullpen to close the games out.  After trading for reliever Luis Ayala Monday, the Mets signed ex-Devil Ray Closer, Al Reyes to a minor league contract.  Ayala, who pitched in over 50 innings for the Nationals, had a tRA just under 5 in his time there.  Reyes, who pitched in a combined 83 innings over the past 2 years with Tampa Bay, averaged 1 HR in every 10 balls hit in the air in 2007, and had a tRA of just over 5 in his 83 innings over the past 2 seasons.  Neither of these guys look like they should be able to get the job done. Neither is current closer Aaron Heilman, posting a 4.96 tRA this season, with a 8% HR rate of balls hit in the air.

St. Louis – Adam Wainright is scheduled to return from his Sprained right middle finger that has sidelined him since a Win on June 7th.  Prior to his injury, Wainwright had a 3.14 ERA, but a 4.26 tRA, showing that he had his defense bail him out once or twice. However, Wainwright also posted an above average K/BB rate (3.10), BABIP (.263) and GB% (47.6%).  There was speculation of Wainwright returning as the closer, but due to Chris Carpenter’s injury, he will return to the rotation.  He is a must add & start for his start on Friday.  This leaves Chris Perez to be the closer, who has succeeded in the trial period that he had, and now, poised, expect him to be better than ever.

Florida – Hanley Ramirez was taken out of the game Last Night after apparently jamming his right thumb while stealing second base.  Although he is listed as day-to-day, this may be a problem that can cause him to miss time, or that may linger with him.  Arguably the best fantasy baseball player this year, Hanley will be hard to replace.  To replace him, I recommend Jed Lowrie, who has posted an average to above average contact% (81%), BABIP (.382), BB/K rate (0.58) in 137 at bats.  Although this is a small sample size, he has also put up these types of numbers throughout his minor league career.

Beckett start pushed back, Sherrill to DL

Boston Red Sox starter Josh Beckett, who struggled last Sunday in possibly his worst start all season, has been pushed back from Saturday to some time next week. Beckett is experiencing numbness in his right hand, something he says he has dealt with all season, and he says he just needs some time off. His start will be pushed back 3 days to Tuesday with Daisuke Matsusaka and Jon Lester moving up to take his make the start.

Beckett has been having one of his best season to date, although his surface stats say he has struggled. With 145 k’s and only 30 bb’s in 149 1/3 innings Beckett has a tRA of 3.66, far better than his has plus 4 ERA. The problem is that Beckett has literally been hit with bad luck posting a .330 BABIP, one of the worst in the league. So who are you going to use to replace him? The best bet would probably to go with a bad luck, good skills guy like Bronson Arroyo or Ian Snell. Those two are both also extremely high on the BABIP, with Snell’s .370 tops among starters.

Baltimore Orioles closer George Sherrill has been placed on the 15 day disabled list with shoulder inflammation. Although he was named to the all star game Sherrill is not one of the better closers in the league. His ERA, tRA, and K/BB rates are all among the worst of all closers in baseball. According to Roto World Jim Johnson is the favorite to take the job, and although he has a poor K/BB rate he is able to keep the ball on the ground and in the park putting his tRA at 3.19. If he gets the opportunity, I would give him a shot.

In other news New York Yankees left fielder/designated hitter Hideki Matsui has been activated from the DL. He should be an option in any and all leagues. Carl Pavano on the other hand is hurt again. After throwing a bullpen session on Sunday he reported a “stiff neck.” Anyone surprised?