2010 Bullpen Preview: AL East

Not a busy day in the baseball world Friday, so I decided to start my 2010 bullpen previews in the AL East.

New York Yankees:

Closer - Mariano Rivera.
Setup - Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, David Robertson?
Best pitcher - Rivera.

Rivera is as good ever. In 2009, Rivera’s ERA was under 2 for the sixth time in seven seasons, as he posted a 72/12 k to walk ratio, the second strait year his K/BB rate was 6+. He is 40 years old, but he just seems to get better every year. That said, their are several elite setup guys on this team. Recent comments from Brian Cashman indicate that, if the Yankees sign another starter, Chamberlain and Hughes will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, leaving the other one to likely setup Rivera. Chamberlain’s career numbers as a reliever are tremendous, with a 1.50 ERA and K rate of almost 11. Hughes’ as a reliever? A 1.40 ERA and a K/BB rate of 5. Lesser known setup option David Robertson also has an electric skill set. In 43 2/3 innings, he struck out 63 batters, for a K rate of 12.98, and a FIP of 3.05. Robertson could be worth rostering just for his ERA and Ks, but in the even that Chamberlain and Hughes end up on the rotation, Robertson would be the main setup guy, and his value would increase.

Boston Red Sox:

Closer - Jon Papelbon.
Setup - Daniel Bard.
Best pitcher - Papelbon.

His ERA may have improved in 2009, but a year after posting a near 10 K/BB rate, Papelbon struggled with his control and FB% for much of 2009. Still, his K rate stayed north of 10, and a FIP of 3.05, and an ERA of 1.85 show he’s still pitching at a high level. There has been talk that Papelbon will be moved this off-season, and that Daniel Bard will take his place. While I don’t think they’ll just give up on one of the best closers in the league over the past few seasons, Bard could handle it. The fireballer had a K rate of 11.5 in 2009, with a FIP of 3.38 and xFIP of 3.25. His average fastball velocity? 97.3. He improves his control and he could be one of the best closers in baseball. Don’t worry too much about Papelbon, but Bard is certainly worth an AL only shot for his Ks, ERA, and closing potential.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Closer - Rafael Soriano.
Setup - JP Howell.
Best pitcher - Soriano.

JP Howell spent much of last season as the Rays closer, saving 17 games with a 2.84 ERA. His K rate and groundball abilities make him a solid closing candidate, but the Rays went out and traded for former Braves closer/setup-man Rafael Soriano. Soriano has the skills to be an elite closer, with a 2.54 FIP last year, a 12.13 K rate, and a sub-3 xFIP. However, he spent much of 2004, 2005, and 2008 on the disabled list with a variety of injuries. For that reason, Soriano is a less than perfect fantasy option, and JP Howell is definitely still worth owning in AL only leagues. Former closer Grant Balfour is also an intriguing option given his ability to miss bats and previous success in the role. If anyone else emerges in this bullpen, keep an eye on the situation, because Soriano is a huge injury risk.

Baltimore Orioles:

Closer - Mike Gonzalez.
Setup - Kam Mickolio, Jim Johnson?
Best pitcher - Gonzalez.

The second former Brave on this list, Gonzalez can also dominate at times but has struggled with health. With 3.31 and 3.70 xFIPs the past two seasons, and around 11 K/9 , there’s no reason to believe he can’t perform at a high level. Past Gonzalez though, we get into a whole bunch of mediocrity. One intriguing name is 25 year old Kam Mickolio. Mickolio spent most of 2009 in AAA, where he posted a 3.11 FIP in 35 relief appearances. Once promoted to the Major Leagues, Mickolio struck out 14 batters in 13 2/3 innings with a 2.58 FIP. The 6-9, 256 pound righty throws a mid-90s fastball more than 80% of the time, and also mixes in a slider in the mid-80s. Worth watching if Gonzalez goes down. Finally, Jim Johnson ended last season as the Orioles main closer, but given his poor performance I doubt he gets another crack at it.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Closer - Jason Frasor.
Setup – Scott Downs.
Best pitcher - Downs.

This is the most uncertain bullpen situation in the division. When BJ Ryan landed on the DL early in the year, Scott Downs took over as closer. However, Downs battled his own injuries, and Jason Frasor ended the season as the Jays closer, dominating down the stretch. Ryan is out of the picture, and it seems to be between Downs and Frasor at this point. Downs probably has the slightly better skill set. In 2009, he struck out 43 batters while only walking 13, inducing groundballs at an awesome 55.7%. His xFIP was 3.18. Frasor also has a nice skill set, with a K rate of 8.74, nice control, and a 2.99 FIP. However, his flyball tendency makes him a little more prone to blow-ups. We’ll pencil Frasor in as the closer, as he ended there last season, but it could really be either one. Whoever gets the job to start the season is worth a good investment, especially Downs, as both are good enough to keep the job. Brandon League was also very good down the stretch, so he could end up in the mix.

Holliday update: O’s, Cards, another team?

Things seem to be heating up on the Matt Holiday front, as additional teams may be jumping into the race to land the left fielder.

While the Cardinals still appear to be the favorites, reports last night indicated that the Orioles might end up being serious bidders. This actually isn’t all that suprising. The O’s are a very talented young team, but could use a bit more power in the middle of their order. They tried to sign Mark Teixeira to build around last season, but weren’t able to. There are also rumors floating around that they will go after Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, a move I’d be a fan of.

Additionally, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports tweeted that Holliday may also have another offer on the table from an East Coast team. My money would be on New York – either the Mets or the Yankees. The Yankees seemed out of it for Holliday a few days ago, but with Damon talks stalling, and both Halladay and Lackey off the market, they might make an offer. The Mets, who seem more interested in Jason Bay, could also be players for Holliday is Bay doesn’t seem ready to sign.

Holliday, who hit .313/.394/.515 last season, with a .390 wOBA and 5.7 UZR, was a 6-7 WAR player in 2009, and is certainly deserving a contract at least approaching $20 million a year, if not exceeding it. However, his numbers have dropped of a bit, and he clearly isn’t the same player he was in Coors field. Fantasy wise, Holliday wont repeat his second half batting average, even if he stays in St. Louis, but he could hit .310 with 25 homers and 10-15 steals and 100 RBIs, making him a #1 fantasy outfielder. A move to Yankee stadium could up his value even more, so keep an eye on the situation as it develops.

Orioles sign Gonzalez, Atkins. Is Holliday Next?

UPDATE: Baltimore has reportedly joined the bidding for Matt Holliday. Already with a full outfield, if they do sign him one could assume that they would trade their OF depth to gain pitching.

UPDATE: Orioles have also agreed to a 1 year deal with 3B Garrett Atkins.

UPDATE: Gonzalez Deal is worth $12 million with incentives making it possibly worth a total of $16 million.

The Baltimore Orioles are nearing a 2 year deal with ex-Brave lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez. This move would give the Orioles a serious threat at the end of games, something they have lacked since the loss of George Sherrill.  Could this eliminate them as a candidate for Kevin Gregg?

Gonzalez (Type A FA) should take physical later this week, Orioles will lose their 2nd round pick (#43 overall) to the Braves

Follow @FBP_RyanGilbert on Twitter for breaking MLB news and rumors.

Harden to Texas, Millwood to O’s.

Day three of the 2009 winter meetings has belonged to Texas GM Jon Daniels so far, who has done a fantastic job of improving his team going into 2010. The Rangers were a +44 run team last year, and with the addition of Rich Harden, and Hamilton, Kinsler, and maybe even Davis returning to 2008 form,  as well as the maturation of Feliz and Holland and the potential debut of Smoak, we are looking at a playoff contender next year.

Mid-afternoon, news broke that the Baltimore Orioles had acquire Kevin Millwood and $3 million for Chris Ray and a PTBN. This move was obviously a great deal for Texas. While Chris Ray is of little value, they get $9 million of Millwood’s $12 million deal off the books, allowing them to sign Rich Harden latter in the day. I question this move a bit for the Orioles simply because of Millwood’s cost. Let’s be clear – his 2009 ERA of 3.67 was incredibly lucky, and his FIP 4.80 was horrible. But, as we pointed out going into last year, his 2008 2.55 K/BB rate and 4.02 FIP were both quite solid. Bill James projects him at a 4.37 ERA and 175 innings next year, which seems perfectly reasonable, and to be honest, the O’s aren’t going to find 5 starters who can give them 175 innings of league average performance. However, if they wanted to spend $9 million, they should have spent it on Harden, or Sheets, or Piniero, or…. I could go on. Millwood just isn’t worth the price. Fantasy wise, please ignore Kevin Millwood. He’s in the exact opposite situation he was in last year, when he had solid underlying numbers but horrible production. Now his production is starting to look good, driving up his price, but his FIP and K/BB rate simply don’t support his ERA. And Ray sucks, but I think that’s obvious at this point.

The Rangers then turned around and used that extra cash to sign injury-prone but highly talented starter Rich Harden. Harden struggled a bit last season, and as a flyball pitcher Texas may not be too kind to him. His stuff was still there though, and his 10.91 K rate and 3.70 xFIP show he is still pitching at a high level. If he can keep the home runs in check, and improve the control a bit, and most importantly, stay healthy, he could be an ace caliber starter. He’ll cost the Rangers $7.5 million in 2010, with a team option of $11.5 million for 2011. He’s worth the risk for them, and could be a very solid fantasy sleeper in 2010. Just don’t count on him to stay healthy.

Beckett placed on DL, other AL N&N

Baltimore Orioles third basemen Melvin Mora should be out about a week with a strained right hamstring. Mora says that it “could be a week, or less,” and his manager says that right now they don’t think they will be putting him on the disabled list. Mora has been on fire since the all star break, hitting .393 with a 1.160 OPS in the second half with12 home runs and only 14 strikeouts. This does not look like a long term injury.

Even though Boston Red Sox ace Josh Beckett was placed on the 15 day disabled list (retroactive to August 18th) with right elbow inflammation, manager Terry Francona says his tests came out “awesome,” and because the move was retroactive to the 18th, Beckett is scheduled to come of the DL and start Friday’s opener against the Rangers.

Meanwhile in Cleveland, Victor Martinez is returning from the DL. He is expected to split time between three positions, catcher, DH, and first. Martinez struggled early in the year before getting injured, however if hes available in your league you should pick him up. Im going to take his 2300 previous at bats before his 200 this year. And those 2300 ABs have been good, this year being his first full season with an OPS+ under 120.

Detroit Tigers third basemen Miguel Cabrera left Friday’s game with a mild staring to his left pectoral muscle. He is expected to play sometime this weekend and the injury is not considered serious.

New York Yankees Joba Chamberlain is ready to be activated, and should be Monday. He threw 35 pitches and felt no tightness at all. He is expected to return to the bullpen, and baring an injury to Mariano Rivera this is really going to hurt his value.

AL News & Notes

Texas – Milton Bradley left Tuesday’s game early with left knee soreness. He returned Last Night to the lineup with no day off, and went 2-for-3 with a Home Run.  Bradley’s OPS on the season is over 1.00, if he can stay healthy, he should be a big contributor to your home stretch.

Baltimore – Adam Jones was cleared to walk without a boot on Wednesday.  Prior to his injury, Jones had a .725 OPS, 0.21 BB/K rate, and a mediocre 76.9 contact%, which fits well with his mediocre .279 batting average.  Jones is mostly a groundball (46.3%) hitter, but the balls that he manages to get in the air, do not fly out of the ballpark with just a 6.2 HR/FB% and a 14.2 IFFB%. If Jones can come back soon enough, he will be a nice shot in the arm for Baltimore, and your team.

Cleveland – Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez both started Rehab Assignments this week with AAA Buffalo.  They have both hit well in their games, Hafner, in 5 AB vs. LHP succeeded in his efforts, getting 3 hits, 2 of them doubles, compiling a 1.66 OPS, walking once.  Martinez is has 1 hit in 2 AB with buffalo, picking up 2 RBI, and scoring once, evening out his OPS at 1.00, he also walked once.  These 2 guys can and will be main contributors down the stretch, if they are available in your league(s), pick them up while you can.

Minnesota – Alexi Casilla was activated from the DL on Wednesday, after being on the DL since July 29th with a torn tendon in his right thumb, some speculated he might miss the rest of the season.  In 2 rehab games, 4-7, 2 BB, 1 K, 1.238 OPS.  Prior to his injury, Casilla had a .775 OPS, 0.64 BB/K rate, and a high 89.7 contact% to go along with his high .313 batting average.  Casilla should be available in some leagues, at a weak position, he is definitely worth a roster spot.

Beckett start pushed back, Sherrill to DL

Boston Red Sox starter Josh Beckett, who struggled last Sunday in possibly his worst start all season, has been pushed back from Saturday to some time next week. Beckett is experiencing numbness in his right hand, something he says he has dealt with all season, and he says he just needs some time off. His start will be pushed back 3 days to Tuesday with Daisuke Matsusaka and Jon Lester moving up to take his make the start.

Beckett has been having one of his best season to date, although his surface stats say he has struggled. With 145 k’s and only 30 bb’s in 149 1/3 innings Beckett has a tRA of 3.66, far better than his has plus 4 ERA. The problem is that Beckett has literally been hit with bad luck posting a .330 BABIP, one of the worst in the league. So who are you going to use to replace him? The best bet would probably to go with a bad luck, good skills guy like Bronson Arroyo or Ian Snell. Those two are both also extremely high on the BABIP, with Snell’s .370 tops among starters.

Baltimore Orioles closer George Sherrill has been placed on the 15 day disabled list with shoulder inflammation. Although he was named to the all star game Sherrill is not one of the better closers in the league. His ERA, tRA, and K/BB rates are all among the worst of all closers in baseball. According to Roto World Jim Johnson is the favorite to take the job, and although he has a poor K/BB rate he is able to keep the ball on the ground and in the park putting his tRA at 3.19. If he gets the opportunity, I would give him a shot.

In other news New York Yankees left fielder/designated hitter Hideki Matsui has been activated from the DL. He should be an option in any and all leagues. Carl Pavano on the other hand is hurt again. After throwing a bullpen session on Sunday he reported a “stiff neck.” Anyone surprised?