Position Preview: First Base

It’s been a while since I went over my top catchers for the 2010 season, but I’ve finally had the time to sit down and work out some rough projections and rankings for first baseman.

Listed next to the players name is his ADP among first baseman on Mock Draft Central. Anyway, on with the top-15:

Tier 1:

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals (1)

I doubt anyone is surprised with this ranking, and there isn’t much to say about Pujols. He’s the perfect combination of money and the bank, with enough upside to separate himself from the pack in several categories. Last year’s jump of 11 home runs should come as no surprise, as he was plagued with arm injuries for the better part of 2007 and 2008. Expect a .330 batting average, and he’s a pretty safe bet to hit 40 bombs again. The #1 player on my big board going into next season.

Tier 2:

2. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers (4)

If anyone is going to challenge Pujols for the top spot, it will be Prince. He’s got the production of Ryan Howard, and he wont hurt you’re batting average either. At 26 next season, he will already have a couple of 46+ HR seasons under his belt, and although 2008 represents some downside, he still hit .276 with 34 homers and well over 100 RBIs, and his 2007 and 2009 seasons have made that look like a bit of an outlier. He’s just now entering his prime. Expect more of the same from Prince in 2010 at the very least, if not a bit more. 60 homers could be in this guys future. If you see him available at the end of the first, jump on it.

3. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies (5)

Howard probably gets a little underrated, if you can believe that, by fantasy owners, just because of his Ks. With the exception of 2008, Howard is a consistent .270-.280 hitter at the big league level, who has yet to produce a full season with 45 homers and 135 RBIs. From a fantasy standpoint, you don’t get better production than that. He’s also cut his K rate the last couple of years, back to where it was when he hit over .300 in 2006. He does have the upside to hit in the .290-.300 range, which would make him a contender for the top spot on his list, but we’ll say he hits .275 next year, putting him comfortably in the top-5.

4. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees (3)

I initially had Tex behind Cabrera on this list, but looking at the big picture here, I could see some improvement, even over what he did last year. In 2009, Teixeira posted his highest ISO since his Texas days, yet his HR/FB rate dropped for the second straight year, even in the new Yankee stadium. He clearly has power, as he hit 39 bombs last year, but don’t disregard the possibility that he hits a few more in 2010, especially considering he will have Arod at 100% hitting behind him all year.

5. Miguel Cabrera, Detoirt Tigers (2)

I love Miguel Cabrera, and you should remember that there isn’t much of a difference 2-5. But I think he’s reached a level where, even at 27, expecting much more from him could be foolish. He should hit .315 with 35 homers, but the lineup around him is disintegrating, and people are going to overrate that batting average. The four guys ahead of him have a decent edge in HR/RBI, plus a better lineup around them and more upside. Cabrera could still make a jump to being a 40-45 home run hitter, but I think we need to keep our expectations inline with his previous production for now.

Tier 3:

6. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres (7)

Gonzalez is a victim of Petco park. In 2009, he hit only 12 of his 40 home runs at home, and slugged about 200 points lower. Still, he are looking at an elite player in his prime. Last year he hit a career high 40 homers, and improved his K rate and BB rate dramatically. Those improvements were masked by a poor BABIP, but he could be a .280-.290 hitter next year. If he ever gets traded out of Petco, he’s my #2 first baseman easily, and could, in my honest opinion, outproduce Pujols. Double his away line from last year, and he’d be at .306 with 56 homers and 132 in the Padres horrible lineup. Put him in Fenway with the Red Sox, he could hit .320 with 60 homers and 140 RBIs. Seriously. So keep an eye on things. If he gets moved, he’s an early first round pick, no doubt about it.

Tier 4:

7. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels (11)

Some may say Morales wont repeat his 2009 season, but I think that’s absurd. He’s 26, and entering just his second season as a big league starter. In his first full season, he hit .306 with 34 homers. He also got better every month, except for September. His age, and the numbers and quick growth he demonstrated when given a real opportunity, make me think he could get even better next season. A .300 hitting power first baseman in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball? I’ll take that on my team. Expect numbers along the same lines as 2009, with his age and improvement last year outweighing his lack of a track-record. Big sleeper.

8. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros (10)

Lance Berkman’s 2009 batting average is not a demonstration of his true ability level. He is a legitimate .290-.300 hitter, who suffered from an unfortunate BABIP last season, while maintaining similar power numbers and LD/FB/GB rates. He’s going to contribute across the board, with a good batting average, 25+ homers, some steals, and a bunch of runs and RBIs, so while he wont put up flashy numbers like he did in the first half of 2008, he’ll help your team a lot and can probably be had at a decent value.

9. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins (9)

Morneau had another productive season in 2009, and while he’s probably not going to repeat his 2006 MVP season, he’s a good bet for a .290 average, 30 homers, and well over 100 RBIs.

Tier 5:

10. Derek Lee, Chicago Cubs (14)

Lee is a difficult guy to evaluate. His batting average has always been an asset, and should continue to be in 2010. But that’s not why he’s making a return to the top-10 first baseman in fantasy baseball. It’s his 2009 power resurgence. It’s hard to buy when he’s 34 years old, but this isn’t something we haven’t seen from Lee. I expect his power numbers to go down a bit, but he’s still going to hit .300, and 25/90/90 is well within reach.

11. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays (12)

Look, he’s never going to hit for a great average, but his 2009 BABIP was incredibly low. Expect a return to the .250-.260 range, which you can live with, given the fact that he’s a good bet for 35+ homers, and 100+ RBIs.

12. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds (6)

I’ve written a bit about Votto in the past, but I’ll sum it up here. He’s unlikely to reproduce his batting average from last season, and while he should improve his HR numbers a bit as he moves into his prime, he’s not going to put up the R/RBI of guys higher on the list. Expect .300, with between 25-30 homers, and poor RBI/R numbers (compared to other first baseman that is). Others are going to expect a much higher batting average, so stay away.

13. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox (8)

Youk isn’t going to give you elite production, 25 homers, 90 RBIs, 90 runs, all good but none great. The fact is most people have him in their top-10 because of the batting average. That’s where I think he slips up next year. His K rate went up quite a bit in 2009, and it was masked by his uncharacteristically high BABIP. I’d be worried about that batting average keeping his value afloat in ’10. He’s getting the bust label on my cheatsheet.

Tier 6:

14. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies (19)

The batting average is for real with Helton, and while he wont put up huge HR numbers anymore, you could do a lot worse, especially in NL only leagues. He’s getting older, but he had a bit of a bounce back year in 2009, and could be a good value over his ADP.

15. Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals (13)

The hype is there for a reason, but keep your expectations in check. Butler is a very good young hitter, capable of hitting .300, however considering how bad he was for much of 2008, I have to be a bit worried about whether he can repeat 2009. He has room to grow, and could put up similar numbers to Votto, minus about 10-15 runs and RBIs.

Best of the rest:

Carlos Delgado is an interesting name to bring up. His injury last year hurts his stock, and he’s a couple of years removed now from his big 2008, but there’s always the possibility that he hits 35 homers and drives in 100 runs.

When the Rangers first base job is sorted out, we can properly value Chris Davis and Justin Smoak. Davis had a very bad year last year, but a couple of years ago, he seemed to be emerging as a tremendous fantasy player. Smoak has .300/35/110 written all over him, but he looked over-matched at AAA, and probably wont be up to start the season. Still, he could end up wining the job out of spring training, and then the sky’s the limit. Mike Lowell could also get some playing time, but he’s not that great of an option in mixed leagues anyway.

I’d stay away from James Loney. Since coming into the league, it’s been all downhill for the Dodgers first baseman. He’s going to hit for a solid average, and he has some upside, but let someone else worry about that. He’s not going to hit for enough power to be a viable option at first base in mixed leagues. The same can be said for Conor Jackson, who missed most of last year with an injury.

Biggest sleeper: Kendry Morales.

Biggest bust: Kevin Youkilis and Joey Votto.

Potential breakout: I’ll say Gonzalez if he gets out of Petco. It’s kind of cheating, but whatever. He leaves San Diego, and those numbers reach a completely different universe.

Deeeeeep Sleeper: Nick Johnson. I’ve heard rumors the Yankees sign him to DH. Lefty .300 hitter with some power in Yankee stadium, could become relevant again.

My Award Winners of 2008

AL

MVP: Kevin Youkilis- He is having a great year. He has a very good batting average and his 7th in the league in Woba. He has put up very good numbers all across the board and has been the best player for the Red Sox this year. His OBP is nearing 400 and he has put up a good SLG percentage. He also has the a great OPS which I value very much.

Cy Young: Cliff Lee- Frankly he has been dominant this year. He has the best record in the league and the best ERA. He had great control throughout the whole year. The guy went from competing for the 5th spot in the rotation to the best pitcher in the AL this year.

Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria- He has had a great year. He led all rookies in home runs. While he may not have a great OBP he has a very good OPS and SLG percentage. There really was no other choice for ROTY.

NL

MVP: Albert Pujols- Really don’t need an explanation. Most feared hitter in baseball and dominated opposing pitching.

Cy Young: Tim Lincecum- He was stellar this year. He had by far the most strikeouts in the NL and had the best win-loss record in the NL. Tim and Webb were very close in my opinion and Webb kind of sucked the last month while Tim kept it up earning the award.

Rookie of the Year: Geovany Soto- Soto put up very good power numbers this year. He had a decent OBP and decent SLG. He had a pretty good OPS. He also handled that great pitching staff of the cubs pretty well so he gets my award.

End of season awards….

I have to do this, and I have to beat ESPN, so here goes….

AL

MVP – Alex Rodriguez - Alex Rodriguez was the best hitter in the American League this year. It’s just that simple. Rodriguez lead the league in OPS among batters with at least 500 plate appearances, and one of the top wOBA in the league. You could definitely throw Joe Mauer and Carlos Quentin in here, especially if you want to give it to a playoff team, but in the end I’ll give it to Arod. 

Cy Young – Cliff Lee - I’m not looking at wins or era so how does this guy win? Easy. He has great control, can get the strikeouts, and keeps the ball in the park. Add that all together and he leads Major League Baseball in tRA.

ROTY – Evan Longoria - He may be a little overrated, actually he is, but he lead AL rookies in HR, OBP, and OPS so he’s an easy pick for this award.

Reliever of the year – Mariano Rivera - Saves are a stupid category, the bottom line is that Rivera dominated like few pitchers have and is the best reliever in the league. Krod is very overrated. 

NL 

MVP – Albert Pujols - I don’t have to qualify this. Pujols. Is. God. 

Cy Young – Tim Lincecum – This might be surprising, as I had Brandon Webb winning this a month ago. However over the last month, Lincecum has dominated while Webb has fallen apart. This lead to Lincecum’s tRA ending up better than Webb and his strikeout lead getting even more insane. 

ROTY – Jay Bruce – Like Longoria, Bruce is an easy pick here and the guy we expected to win at the start of the year. Lead NL rookies in HR and finished second in SLG and OPS. 

Reliever of the year – Brad Lidge - Like Rivera, he didn’t lead his league in saves but he was just the best pitcher to close out games this season. He is the NL reliever of the year.

The dangerous world of speculating: Albert Pujols

Remember back to March when everyone was avoiding Albert Pujols in fantasy baseball draft? Remember why? It was because of speculation that he would need Tommy John Surgery and miss the season. Not only has he played most of this season so far, it has been his best season since 2003.

Pujols has flat out raked all year. With a .349 batting average, 26 home runs, .459 OBP, and .621 SLG Pujols is easily the most valuable player in major league baseball. He has his highest average, OBP, and OPS+ since his 2003 season, as well as his highest offensive winning percentage (.828) since then (.832).

This season is showing people the dangerous world of speculating injuries. If you had drafted him and he had been out all year you would have looked like an idiot. If you pass him up and he hits like he has this season you feel stupid. So what should a fantasy owner do? Its a delicate balance, but at least in the case of Pujols people needed to remember one thing. This is Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and for now hes fine.

I think everyone needs to do more research before writing a guy off. If they had looked into it they would have found out that Pujols had played with this injury most of his career, and played at a high level. The reason everyone was making a big deal out of it was that it was POSSIBLE that the Cardinals MIGHT shut him down in August or September if they were out of it, and he would have surgery. How can you pass up on Albert Pujols on pure speculation? How can you just assume the Cardinals will be out of it? Do the research, think about it, really what the risk? Pujols plays from April to September at a high level, then he gets shut down.

So whats the lesson here? Don’t operate you team on assumptions or speculation. Look at the numbers, look at the real information, and make you decision.