Unsettled Bullpens – American League Edition

Every season between 30 and 50 percent of closers lose their job, whether it is due to injury, ineffectiveness, or trade. For fantasy owners, this can be deadly. But it can also save a season. If you know who is likely to lose their job – and the pitcher that’s next in line for saves – you will have a huge advantage. When the closer goes down, you can quickly pick up the next guy in line before anyone is named. So… here are 1o bullpens I believe will have a new closer at some point this season.

1. Tampa Bay Rays – This is one of the most unsettled bullpens out there. It’s also one of the best. Troy Percival will start the season as the closer but that shouldn’t last too long. Last year he was horrible, with a 1.4 k/bb rate and FB rate under 25%. So when he implodes who takes over? Well last year Joe Maddon went to Dan Wheeler. Wheeler has a good history skills wise, but last year he wasn’t all that good. If he can recapture 2007 (which he did in the second half to a degree) he’s a good bet to get the saves opportunities. If not, bet on Grant Balfour, then JP Howell. 

2. Toronto Blue Jays – While BJ Ryan does have a solid performance record, health wise he’s a mess. This bullpen is no mystery. With a dip in velocity and rumored injuries, I’ll take the under on 10 saves from Ryan. Scott Downs is the obvious – and correct – next guy in line. When BJ ends up on the DL, Scott Downs will get the saves. Pick him up if available. 

3. Chicago White Sox – This is debatable. Bobby Jenks has a history of solid skills and solid health. But he’s also seen a massive decrease in strikeouts the last few years, and he is no longer an elite option (or even close). Let’s look at his numbers last year. 5.5 K rate (down from 10 in 2006!), 2.5 BB rate (up from 1.8 last year!), and a very mediocre 2.2 k/bb rate (down from 4.3 last year!). The point is, Bobby Jenks isn’t the same pitcher he used to be. He’s a GB pitcher with good control, but he doesn’t have a closers skill set. Who takes over if he fails? Wide open. Dotel, Linebrink, and Thornton all have a shot. Thornton has the best skill in my opinion, but the White Sox probably wont put a lefty in the closers role. I think Dotel has the best shot with a sick K rate and solid across the board skills. Linebrink is also a solid bet. 

4. Cleveland Indians – Because Kerry Wood is the closer, and Kerry Wood likes to get hurt. A lot. If he gets hurt there are two candidates for the job. Jensen Lewis, and Rafael Perez. Perez is easily the better pitcher with a great K/GB profile and a sub-3 BB rate. He’s probably one of the 10-15 best relievers in baseball. But Lewis is ok. He has a decent K rate, and a decent walk rate, and even a decent GB%. I mean nothing like Perez, but he’s a righty so he might get the first shot. 

5. Los Angeles Angels – In my opinion, Brian Fuentes is one of the best closers in the league. That said, he’s had back (and performance) issues this spring. If he goes down, the two candidates here are Jose Arrendondo and Scott Shields. I think Arrendondo is the best bet, as he’s younger and if they hadn’t signed Fuentes he’d have been the closer, but Shields has skills and experience so he does have a shot. My money’s on Jose.

6. Oakland Athletics – Brad Zieglar just isn’t closer material. He doesn’t give up home runs, but that’s about it. He has a very sub-par K rate and his control last season was just ok. Behind him we have two options. Santiago Cassilla has been one of my favorite future-closers for about 3 years now, but he’s never put it together for a full season. That said… look at his numbers in the first half last year. A K rate of almost 10, a walk rate under 2, and a GB% approaching 50. This kid is for real, and if he can be even a little bit consistent he’s going to end up with the job when Zieglar loses it. Jerry Blevins also has a nice skill set, but he barely made the team. He has a lot of ground to make up in that bullpen.