Second half starting pitching targets

We are now fairly close to the half way point in the season, so it’s probably a good time to look at some undervalued starting pitchers, or just starting pitchers to acquire for the second half. Whether they have been unlucky, are good speculative picks, or may be coming up from the minor leagues, these guys are potential targets from your late-June trading and free agent pickups.

AL

Francisco Liriano, MIN - Going out and getting Liriano at this point is the ultimate risk reward. In 2006, he was the best pitcher in baseball for a couple of months, and with all due respect to then teammate Johan Santana, it wasn’t even close. But since coming back from TJ surgery, he hasn’t been the same. This season he has reached an all time low, with a 3-8, 5.88 line, and a K/BB rate under 2. There is something to like here. First of all, he’s still getting his Ks (8+ per 9), and that number could go up. His CT% against is higher than 2006, but it’s still one of the best levels in the league. His control has been pretty bad, and he’s not the groundball pitcher he was in 2006, but his value is so low and his upside is so high. I’d take a shot, especially considering his stuff still appears to be great. Also worth noting. His last 3 starts: 18 innings, 19 Ks, 8 BBs, and a 48% GB rate. Still struggling with that control though.

Chris Tillman, BAL – Tillman is going to get the call some time soon. He’s just pitching too well not to. He’s striking guys out just as much as ever, with 9.55 per 9 innings, and his control has improved drastically from last year, leading to a 3.89 K/BB rate. Tillman’s HR rate stands at .55, and his FIP at 2.78. His MLEs (from MinorLeagueSplits.com) have him at a 7.53 K rate, 3.12 BB rate, and 4.08 FIP. He’s 21, dominating in AAA, and soon will be in the big leagues. If your league allows you to do so, it would be a good decision to pick him up now.

NL

Randy Johnson should pick things up in the second half.

Randy Johnson, SFG – Last year Johnson was fantastic, resurrecting his career with a 3.93 K/BB rate and a sub 4 FIP, but his value is probably down this year. Besides recording win #300, he has a 4.68 ERA, and a FIP not that much better (4.31). His luck doesn’t look all that bad, with a .301 BABIP right at league average and a pretty normal 71% strand rate. But he does have a 8.17 K rate and a 2.78 K/BB rate. He’s also keeping the ball on the ground at a fairly high rate of 48.1%. What’s missing? His problem has been an unlucky HR/FB rate of 17.8%. If we assume a normal 11%, his HR number goes from 13 to around 8, and his FIP goes from 4.31 to 3.62. Assuming that normalizes, he’s a decent buy low candidate.

Jorge De La Rosa, COL – De La Rosa is a Rockies pitcher with an ERA over 5. So why would you want him? Well first of all he does strike a lot of guys out, 9.80 per 9 innings. His control isn’t great, 4.30 BB rate, but that still leaves him with a K/BB rate around 2.3. Not fantastic, needs to improve his control, but it’s good enough. He gives up a few too many flyballs – and homeruns – but nothing to severe. His 4.01 FIP tells it all. An almost 10 K/9 pitcher, even one with questionable control and a few too many homeruns, shouldn’t be pitching this poorly. He has been the victim of pretty bad luck. First of all his BABIP, 3.46, is way out of the expected range, second highest in the NL. He also has had a unusually unlucky grouping of hits. His strand rate is in the low 60s. I’m not saying his control, and his flyball tendencies, aren’t issues -they are. But he is more of a 4.00-4.20 type of a pitcher than a 5.00+ pitcher, and that information is valuable in an NL league. And with those K numbers, and the way Colorado is playing, he has significant upside.