Hot Starts: Pitchers

Most of these guys aren’t deep sleepers, but they are starting off well. Do you want to pick them up? Sell high on them? Spend to grab them at their best?

Let’s start off easy with some obvious ones:

Johan Santana – Listen I was very critical of Johan Santana coming into this season. Not that I didn’t think he would be great – obviously he will be – but his K rate had plummeted and he still was a bit of a flyball pitcher. Well he’s trying very hard to prove me wrong, and I admit that so far Johan Santana has been the best pitcher in the league. In his first 12 2/3 innings Johan has struck out 20 (walking 5) and given up 1 earned run. He’s been very lucky so far, but his K rate is over 14 so I promise to leave him alone. Vintage Johan is back.

Erik Bedard – It was just two years ago that he posted a K rate of almost 11, so it shouldn’t be surprising that he is currently second in the majors in FIP. But 15 ks to 1 walk? Obviously he wont sustain that K/BB rate, but in 2007 he posted an elite K rate, solid BB rate, and 47% grounders. I expect Erik Bedard to move back into the top 15 pitchers this year, baring injury. His skill set is flat out amazing. 

Josh Johnson – Great combination of velocity, command, and a sick slider. Johnson is one of the top pitchers in the league now. Groundball pitchers with 95 MPH heat and great control don’t come along frequently. 

Zach Greinkie and Jake Peavy are also off to magnificent starts. Greinkie is on the edge of the games elite, and soon could be in that group. Peavy is already in there, and while he still has injury concerns you like to see his K rate moving in the right direction. 

And now some less obvious ones…

Is Zach Dukes shutout a sign of things to come?

Zach Duke – Duke is 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA. Some might say it’s a complete aberration, and some might say he’s the next Cliff Lee. I’m somewhere in between. First of all there are some good signs. His K rate in the second half last year, and this spring, was over 5.2, where as his K rate the first half of 2008 and all of 2007 was well below 5. Duke has some strengths as well. He is a ground ball pitcher and he has great control. The one big difference between this year and last year is velocity (he is averaging over 90 MPH this year, something he had not reached in 05-08). If he could get his K rate over 6, he COULD be this years Cliff Lee. But that’s unlikely. A 4.00 ERA and a decent whip is possible, he eats innings so he should chip in some wins, but don’t expect many Ks. He’s a worthy 4×4 guy, and he should be owned in NL only leagues (of course), with a decent amount of upside, but until his K rate starts to push 6 I’d probably pass in a 12 team mixed. If your starved for pitching though, and you want his K/BB rate and GB% upside, pick him up. 

Kevin Millwood – We called him “this year’s Cliff Lee” a few weeks ago, and he has delivered. 11 Ks, 1 walk, 14 innings pitched, and a .64 ERA. His GB% is back up, him K/BB rate great as usual. Bad luck has killed him the past few years, when that evens out expect a sub-4 ERA. 

Kyle Loshe - He’s borderline. His numbers so far this year have been solid, with 8 ks and 1 walk in his first 2 starts. He’s a control artist to the extreme, and he has a solid GB%. But his K rate isn’t good enough to be anything close to elite. Last year he was under the radar, and fairly solid with a sub-4 ERA & FIP as well as a 2.43 K/BB rate. Great in 4×4 leagues, and NL only just like Zach Duke, but in your normal 12 team mixed probably not.

Kyle Davies – I detailed this a bit in my article about the cutter, but Davies is now throwing it and so I would give him a shot. He had a great first start, and I believe that with his new pitch (plus last years improvement) Davies is poised for a breakout. 

Jarrod Washburn – This one has to be a no. I just don’t see it. 4 ks in 8 innings isn’t going to cut it, even if you only walk 1. And that’s about where his career is at right now. 1 “good” start doesn’t change that, and as I said he didn’t miss many bats. He also doesn’t keep the ball on the ground. Batters make contact with 84% of the pitches he throws, and over 90% of the pitches he throws in the strike zone. Even with solid control, he’s at best a flyer in AL only leagues. Those 4.7 FIPs don’t lie. 

Carlos Zambrano - Is the Carlos Zambrano of old back? Through his first 12 innings, Zambrano has 13 ks. However he does have 6 walks. Still, this is encouraging, as is his fastball velocity back at it’s 2006 level. His latest start was even better. He only went 3 innings, but 5 ks and 1 walk are very good. I am the harshest Big Z critic out there, but he’s showing something. It’s a small sample size, but it’s the first good thing we have seen in 3 years.