Checking in on rookie performances

In general, players that play well in the minor leagues will play well in the major leagues, and a large sample size from the minors is probably more value than a small sample size in the big leagues. This is why it is foolish to overreact to early career performance. Alex Rodriguez hit .224 in his first two seasons. However we are at a point during the season where it might be time to review the performances of some high profile rookies so far this season.

Matt Wieters, C, Orioles - Wieters may be the most hyped prospect to come up this season, but his performance has been pretty awful, hitting .250 with 2 homers, 4 walks, and 17 ks. His underlying numbers don’t look good either. There is nothing here other than him playing poorly. But that’s ok, we are only at the 76 PA mark, and he dominated at every level. Bottom line: Don’t worry about him.

Travis Snider, OF, Jays – I was never a huge fan of Snider for this year, because he honestly did not seem ready as he moved through the Jays system last year. Snider demonstrated good power, and the ability to draw a walk, but he didn’t make contact, with a 68% contact rate through three levels. His performance was pretty good, especially considering he was a 20 year old in AA and AAA, but he just didn’t look ready. He was only 21 coming into the season, and the strikeout rate screamed of a guy who needed more time in the minor leagues. He struggled in the big leagues, hitting .233 with a 79 OPS+ before being sent down.  Bottom line: Long term, this is still a good power/obp corner outfielder, but he’s not ready right now.

David Price, LHP, Rays – Price is another guy who probably isn’t ready yet, but who is in the big leagues because of their huge upside. He is struggling with his control, something that is very predictable if you take a look at his AAA career; Price walked 27 batters in 42 1/3 innings in 08 and 09. But he’s also striking out almost 10 guys per 9 innings, and he demonstrated his solid GB ability last season. Bottom line: Owning him is a risk this year, but long term he’s still golden.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers – Elvis Andrus is having a fine rookie season. He’s already one of the top defensive shortstops in the league, and the hitting levels he has demonstrated could make him a good MLB player. So far this season, he has actually improved his contact rate from the minor leagues (up to 87%), and his batting eye (up to .64). Andrus will never hit for power – his GB% is around 57% – but his contact and speed will lead to a good average and tons of stolen bases. Bottom line: Andrus hasn’t put up great numbers, but they have been a solid transition from AAA and indicate a long career in the big leagues.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Tigers – Porcello turned 20 years old this past December, and he’s already in the big leagues with a 3.55 ERA and 8 wins. But his skill set is borderline. His control is solid, a 3.09 BB rate, but his K rate is just over 5 which is quite troubling for a guy compared to Josh Beckett. He had the same K problems in single A last season. The problem is he’s not throwing his slider (1.0% so far). If he doesn’t do that, well then he’s a groundball pitcher (almost 60% this year), with decent (probably improving control) but a low K rate. If he does, he has Roy Halladay type upside. For this season though, expect that ERA to go up. Bottom line: Tons of long term upside, but short term his skill set will trend towards a 4 ERA not a 3 ERA.

Colby Rasmus, CF, Cardinals - Rasmus is considered an early ROTY candidate, and for good reason. His average and OBP numbers could be better, but he’s hitting for a good amount of power, and although this doesn’t help your fantasy team, he’s a great defender (10+ UZR). He makes a decent amount of contact, hits a decent amount of line drives, has decent power, and decent speed. That should add up to a pretty good batting average, some power, and some speed, which is pretty valuable in fantasy. Plus, his 2007 season (29 homers, 18 steals) shows his upside is significant. Bottom line: Rasmus is shaking off last season, and putting up a very good rookie year, and he still has some power and speed upside.

Jordan Schafer, CF, Braves - Schafer was one of my favorite rookies coming into the year – a Grady Sizemore type guy who could someday hit .265 but go 30-30 with a great CF defense. He started off on fire but has since cooled off. This is mostly do to his K rate – an outrageous 37.7%. His other skills weren’t that great either. He did walk about 14% of the time, fantastic for a rookie. But his ISO was under .100 and he stole only 2 bases (getting caught once). He is now back in AAA, where he does need more polish, and hitting well. So far he is 4 for 13 with 2 bbs, 3 ks, a homer, and a steal (77% ct rate, .67 BB/K, .231 ISO). Bottom line: The strikeout rate is discouraging, but this is a guy who had never played in AAA with only 350 PAs above A ball. It’s not that surprising that he struggled a bit, and his performance in AAA so far makes me optimistic.

Andrew McCutchen - future fantasy stud.

Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates - McCutchen is the only guy this season to dominated from the start, like a Bruan or Longoria. In the major leagues, McCutchen isn’t striking out too much, is hitting a good number of line drives, has demonstrated plenty of speed and marginal power. His 3 steals (0 CS) and 5 triples in 20 games show his amazing speed upside. He’s hitting .330/.371/.516.  This isn’t that surprising. McCutchen, 22, made it to AA in his first year out of high school, then played almost 2 full seasons at AAA. He was a great prospect and the Pirates handled him well. Bottom line: McCutchen has exceeded expectations, and shown exactly why the Pirates were ok with trading Nate McClouth.

Tommy Hanson, RHP, Braves – Hanson is a very high upside arm that isn’t exactly ready for the big leagues, and it is showing. In his first 23 innings he has 16 ks… and 15 bbs. Bottom line: Not much to say here. He isn’t ready, should not be in the big leagues, and may eventually be sent down. One year leagues, stay away, regardless of his 3-0 record. Keeper leagues though, full steam ahead.

As you can see, I’m fairly optomistic about most of these guys as these are all very high level prospects. I’m a little worried about Rasmus speed, and Schafer was just horrible at the big league level, but for the most part these guys are going to pull out of their struggle. This hasn’t been an impact rookie class, but it’s a stacked on talent-wise, and long term could be great.