2009 MLB draft: top 21 prospects.

This is a fantasy blog and in fantasy leagues minor leaguers don’t put up stats. Neither do college guys, or for that matter high schoolers. But you want to know who these prospects are before others to get them in dynasty leagues and the draft is one of the more interesting real baseball topics.

So, my top 21 as of right now.

1. Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State – I’ll come right out and say it. Steven Strasburg is the best pitching prospect I have ever seen. Strasburg has nasty stuff. His fastball was sitting in the high 90s last year, and in his most recent start he hit 102 seven times! He also has a ridiculous slider and a good change up. His college production has been unreal. 12.3 K rate, 1.48 BB rate, and 2 more strikeouts per walk than David Price in his sophomore season. His home run rate was also a ridiculous .09 per nine innings. He burst onto the scene last year with a 23 strikeout game and was the first college pitcher to make the Olympic team since minor leaguers were allowed in.  At the Olympics he was simply amazing, almost no hitting the Netherlands and striking out 11 guys in 7 innings. The only concern with Strasburg is his mechanics, which are very similar to that of Mark Prior. The big difference here is that his arm doesn’t get up quite as high into the dangerous “reverse w” position that Prior’s did. His velocity has improved every year in college so that is also a good sign. He has more upside than any pitching prospect I have ever seen, and he is also very, very polished with great command of all his pitches. He’ll be dominating big league pitchers by 2011 at the latest.

2. Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina - Ackley is my top college position player by a decent margin. He doesn’t have the amazing bat or power of your prototypical top college hitter like a Pedro Alvarez or Mark Teixeira but his overall skill set is very impressive and he has some room to improve. Ackley’s batting line last year (.405/.495/.599) is very impressive. He has a very good approach to hitting as well as good gap power. He’s very athletic (evident by his 18 steals last year), and this athleticism will allow him to move to center field to start the year. We will have to see how he does deffensivly in center field, but he certainly has 20-20ish upside and is a very good pure hitter who will consistently post a good BA/OBP/SLG line and be extremely valuable to a major league team, especially if he can play the center field position well.

3. Grant Green, SS, USC - Green could be #2 on this list by draft time, but I just don’t think he’s as good a hitter (yet) as Dustin Ackley. One of Green’s biggest strength is the position he plays as it’s hard to develop good shortstops. Green has great range, and is often compared to Troy Toluwitski deffensivly. He has the glove to stick at SS, which is a massive, massive plus in his favor. Green is also a good hitter. He’s pretty athletic with good power, but he’s not very polished at the plate. He’s not, which will obviously hurt his BA/OBP. Green has a lot of upside and is a true 5 tool player at shortstop. While he may take longer than most college hitters to develop, it should be well worth the wait.

4. Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State – I’m a huge fan of Oliver and I will make the argument that he’s the second best pitcher in this draft, though I’m almost positive Alex White gets picked higher. He is a big lefty with good stuff which is always a big plus. He throws a fastball in the 92-94 MPH range with good sink as well as a good curveball and changeup. He has a very repeatable throwing motion and his college numbers are very good. He has the K/GB combo that’s hard not to love and solid control. Overall he has tremendous upside, and his college success makes him a top 5 prospect.

5. Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth – Higher than most but let me explain. First of all this guy does have a lot of talent and a ton of upside. He was consider right up there with Matusz last year for the top college arm in the country, and he really has nasty stuff. He has a mid to high 90s fast ball, a very good slider, and a solid change. He commands all those pitches fairly well. He is also much further along the development curve than anyone else in this class, probably even more developed than any pitcher that came out last year. He has 4 years of college ball and a year+ in independent baseball, making him a safe bet to be the first guy from this class in the major leagues, with a debut in late 2009 not out of the question. While his agent is still Scott Boras, and he didn’t sign last year, it is unlikely that he will hold out yet another year. He’ll probably be the 3rd-5th pitcher off the board, somewhere in the 5-15 range, however I really think this spot is deserved.

6. Alex White, RHP, UNC - This is pretty low for him as far as most people are concerned, but here’s my reasoning. He can’t be over Strasburg because Strasburg’s, well, god. I can’t justify him over Ackley or Green because athletic up the middle guys with tremendous bats are hard to find. Him and Crow is a toss up, although I think White is basically to this draft what Aaron Crow was last year, and Crow is further along in his development with maybe a little better stuff (although it could be argued either way). Still he’s a top 10 prospect, and has a 95% chance to be the second pitcher taken in the draft. He has a low to mid 90s fastball with a lot of movement on it. He also has a couple good secondary pitches, specifically his above average slider. As can be expected with a top college pitcher he has a good amount of polish and with that fastball/slider combo reminds me just a little bit of Rick Porcello. I doubt White falls out of the top three, and I can’t blame any team for wanting to take him.

7. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri – The fact that Gibson is the fifth pitcher on the board tells you how many good college arms there will at the top of this years draft. Gibson has great size at 6’6, and three good pitches that he commands well. His fastball is more about movement than velocity, as he throws it in the low 90s with plenty of sink. He also throws a good slider and changeup. Gibson size and stuff are certainly pluses, and he has had a very good college career, but I might not be quite as high on him as some. Still, very good college arm and a top 10 prospect.

8. Donovan Tate, CF, Cartersville Georgia (HS) – Tate is my top high school prospect, and while I’m not a huge fan of most high school prospects, Tate’s upside is just too ridiculous to ignore. Tate is a true 5 tool player. While Tate is certainly a center fielder first and foremost he does have a fastball that reaches the mid 90s on the mound, and that arm should translate well to the outfield. He is crazy fast and athletic and has the potential to be a very good defensive outfielder at the big league level. He’s a very raw hitter but he has a ton of power upside coming out of high school has plenty of time to develop. Tate has ridiculous upside but he’s also very far away. He needs to improve his approach at the plate and in the field. If he can, the sky is the limit (or is it?).

9. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley California (HS) - Matzek is my top high school pitcher, although there are a couple other guys that could claim  this spot. He’s got good height at 6’3 and he’s a lefty so he’s going to be drafted fairly high. His fastball isn’t overpowering but it does sit in the low 90s. He also has a few good secondary pitches, including a good curveball and decent slider, and a developing change up that could end up being one of his better pitches. He’s a high school pitcher so by definition he’s not very polished but compared to the other high school arms he’s probably the most likely to move quickly though a system. If he can polish off that slider and curve and develop an average to above average change up he will be a front line major league starter. He’s just got so much going for him.

10. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul - Sheppers is a very interesting prospect. On pure stuff he might be the second beast pitcher in this draft, and his upside is that of an ace. He has a mid 90s fastball, a good cruveball, and a developing changeup. That said there are a lot of red flags here. First of all is his shoulder injury. That injury dropped him almost a full round in 2008, and was a major factor in the Pirates decision not to offer him a huge above slot bonus. Scheppers is also very raw as far as college pitchers go, without the command of guys like Strasburg and White. Overall he has tremendous upside and is likely to be a first round pick, however he could drop because of injury concerns. As a Yankees fan I’d love him to fall to the Yankees, however if he makes some improvements this year, he is unlikely to.

11. Austin Maddox, C, Eagle’s View Acedemy Florida (HS) – Maddox is the top catcher in high school, as well as the entire draft, with a great bat and good defense. He has a great arm, and throws in the mid 90s on the mound. He is tall (6’4) so he might have to move, however he does have a good glove and his bat will play anywhere. He has a good approach to the plate with plenty of bat speed a power. He’s as close to a 5 tool guy as your ever going to see at catcher, and reminds me a bit of Jesus Montero (although he’s much better defensively).

12. Robbie Shields, SS, Florida Southern – Shields just bairly misses out on being a top 10 prospect in my book. He has a solid glove and should be able to stay at shortstop but it’s really his bat that makes him a high first round pick. He has the ability to hit for average and power and as long as he plays solid defense he will be one of the better shortstop prospects in baseball.

13. Matt Purke, LHP, Klein Texas (HS) - Purke has all kinds of talent, but he’s not nearly as complete a pitcher as Matzek right now, which keeps him from being the top high school arm. He has a low to mid 90s fastball and a ridiculous slider and is certainly up there as one of the top high school arms.

14. Matt Graham, RHP, Oak Ridge Texas (HS) –  Graham throws his fastball in the mid 90s. He also has a good curveball, and commands both pitches surprisingly well. He has plummeted on a lot of boards due to poor showings in the showcases and he really doesn’t throw a third pitch so he will have to develop one at some point in the minors to reach his ceiling. That ceiling is very, very high though. If he continues to struggle though, no way he makes this list in a few months.

15. Kentrail Davis, OF, Tennessee - Ketrail Davis can hit! He may be only 5’9 but he has plenty of power, and should be able to rack up doubles at the big league level while still hitting a few home runs. He has a great approach to the plate. He’s also very athletic and a good baserunner. He’s only a sophomore and his agent is Scott Boras so he could fall, but the fact is he has a big league bat and he will be drafted somewhere in the first round.

16. Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M – He has top 10 type upside but there are some big concerns with this guy. He’s already had TJ surgery which has hurt his stock in a big way. Personally I think the success rate on TJ being what it is, he’s still a very good prospect. He has great stuff with a mid 90s fastball, great slider, and average changeup. His upside is ridiculous, although picking him is risky.

17. Ryan Wheeler, 1B, Loyola Marymount - I really like Wheeler. He’s a classic ”Moneyball” guy. A good college hitter, plays good defense at first. He doesn’t have great power upside but he has a good approach at the plate and some gap power. The guy just hits and plays a good firstbase so while he doesn’t have the upside of, for example, Brett Jackson, he is a much safer prospect.

18. Matt Davidson, 3B, Yucaipa Callifornia (HS) – Davidson has an impressive bat but he’s not a great athlete and doesn’t really have a position. Power wise Davidson is one of the top prospects in the country, and he does have more polish than most prep bats. While I’ve seen him ranked  lower, he is deserving of a top 15 pick because much like Maddox his bat will play anywhere.

19. Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State – A lot like Wilson, he’s got great stuff but too many red flags to be a top 10-15 pick. He’s go mid to high 90s velocity, and a good slider, but aside from that he really doesn’t have much. He’ll probably end up as a reliever, which hurts his draft stock somewhat, although he profiles as a Joba Chamberlain type stud closer with a power fastball-slider combo so he’s still a first round pick.

20. Mychal Givens, SS/RHP, Plant Florida (HS) – I’m not nearly as high on Givens as most, and I really don’t see why he’s being talked about as a top 5 pick or as potentially the top high schooler on the board. Givens is a two way prospect with a low 90s fastball and some secondary pitches but I never really like putting these two way guys on the mound, and most major league teams agree. Givens could be a solid SS prospect as he’s got the range and athleticism to stick, but for a high schooler being talked about as a top 10 guy he doesn’t have much upside with the bat. He could develop into a quality shortstop, but from what I’ve seen (which is limited) he doesn’t profile as a top half of the first round guy. If your going to take a risk on a high schooler, pick someone with big upside. That said, he can stick at SS and his bat is solid so he’s a top 20 guy.

21. Brett Jackson, CF, Callifornia - Jackson is an intriguing prospect. Simply the fact that he can stick in centerfield makes him worth noting, but the offensive upside is there. He’s a good athlete with an above average arm in centerfield. The reason he cracks the top 20 is that power upside. It’s not there yet, but most believe it will be. Not my kind of college hitter, but a good amount of upside and he can play up the middle.