Another keeper list

Ben writes:

Hey Alex,

Was hoping you could help me out with some tough decisions for my keeper league next year. After winning the league twice in a row, my team failed to come together this year, and I ended up throwing the season in about June for some keepers. My league’s specs: 10 teams, auction-style ($260 budget), C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, 4 OFs, Util, 10 Ps. No innings cap, 5×5 standard with obp instead of avg. We have a three year cap on keepers, so that a player can only be kept two times and then must be put back in the market.

My options include:
Votto for $3 (2 years remaining)
BJ Upton for $5 (1 year remaining)
Chipper Jones for $15 (2 years remaining)
Carlos Quentin for $1 (2 years remaining)
Nick Markakis for $9 (1 year remaining)
Jay Bruce for $2 (2 years remaining)
Headley, Zimmerman, Ian Stewart, Stephen Drew, and Tulowitzki for $1 each (all 2 years remaining), but I don’t expect to seriously consider any of them, given my other options.

Andrew Miller for $1 (2 years)
Clayton Kershaw for $5 (2 years)
James Shields for $1 (1 year)
Mike Pelfrey for $1 (2 years)
Yovani Gallardo for $1 (1 year)
Chris Perez for $1 (2 years)

I can keep 7 players. I’m pretty set on keeping Shields, Quentin, Upton, Markakis, and Gallardo (but please convince me otherwise if you disagree). I also really want to keep Bruce, but that would fill up all 4 of my OF spots, which is not the most appealing proposition heading into an auction.

Your thoughts?

First, let me say that I agree on your selections of Quentin, Upton, Markakis, Shields, and Gallardo. I think they are the top 3 hitters, and top 2 pitchers on your list. After that, I think your other selections have to depend on who is likely to be available. For example, if you do not think any premium talent will be available I would go the extra $15 to take Chipper Jones. Even with the injury risk that always comes with him, he continues to put up sustainable skills and has proved able to convert that into production. In that case, I would go with Jones, and one of Bruce, Votto, Kershaw, and Perez.

If you however think there will be some top tier talent, I would go with a couple of younger, cheaper, and better value options in Jay Bruce and Clayton Kershaw. I understand that handcuffing your outfield this early could be an issues, but having Upton, Quentin, Markakis, and Bruce filling 80% of your outfield for $17 dollars is a good problem to have. I think that would provide you with the additional outfield spot in order to go after a Matt Holliday or Grady Sizemore if they are available. Kershaw is also an easy choice in my opinion because he although he costs a little more than Perez, Pelfrey, etc. he is by far the best pitcher of the bunch, the youngest, and the one with the highest upside. In 2008, Kershaw put up a mediocre 4.35 tRA. That is pretty good however if you consider that he was 20 years old. The average pitcher of his age is probably at advanced A ball, and similarly aged pitcher like Phil Hughes and Felix Hernandez also had their ups and downs over the past few seasons. His minor league track record is amazing, with tRA’s between 2.70 and 3.30 over the past few seasons to go a long with a ton of strikeouts and barely any walks. You can’t expect Kershaw to be perfect next season, but a lot of growth in 2009, and even more in 2010, should be a bargain for 5 bucks.

My point is this: If there isn’t much out there, pay whatever you have to to keep your talent, and try to pick up a few sleepers (I’ll revel those in the upcoming draft kit so check back before you auction) and you should have a great shot at winning your league. If you think that the auction pool will be full of talent however, drop Chippers semi-dead weight contract and go after the stud first rounders to fill out your roster.

Want help with your keeper selections? Email mailbag@fantasybullpen.com with the subject name of keepers, keeper help, 2009 keeper list, etc. so that I know what it is. If it is really, really urgent please say so! I’ll get back to you with in a day or so anyway.