Bedard opts for surgery, what is his value in 2009?

Seattle starting pitcher Erik Bedard, who hasn’t pitched since July with a shoulder injury, has decided to undergo exploratory surgery and miss the remainder of 2008 (like it matters, the M’s were out of it around the time the season started). But Bedard has been one of the best pitchers in the big leagues the last few years, so if he could bounce back in 2009 he would be a great value pick. How likely is it that he pitches? And if so how good will he be? 

This really doesn’t look good for Erik Bedard owners. His manager, Jim Riggleman said that surgery was “the last option” and that they will “try” to have him ready for 2009. Riggleman also said that Bedard’s had tried “for a month or more” before being shut down, and then tried again before this move went down. 

The surgery he is having is also pretty bad news. Exploratory surgery is not a good sign, and some of the predictions coming in are pretty scary. This from Will Caroll of Baseball Prospectus: 

I’m expecting Bedard to have significant damage inside, perhaps like what was found inside Mark Prior’s shoulder…

Although this could be really, really bad for current Bedard owners, this could be good for everyone else. It is possible that minimal damage will be found and that Bedard will be on the field at the start of 2009, and taking a flyer on him if it costs you very little might not be the worst idea. When healthy, Bedard is one of the best pitchers in the league and his strikeout numbers make him even better for fantasy leaguers. My biggest concern (behind the injury it self of course) is that this injury will prevent a trade this off season to a contending team that would give him an opportunity to win games and increase his value. A full evaluation of his value would be premature right now, and will be coming some time this off season, however if you have an open DL spot, are out of the race, or can get him for very little you might want to jump on it when his value it this low.