David Price, Tampa Bay Rays – Price came into last year as baseballs’ top pitching prospect, but struggled to pitch at a league average level. His minor league strikeout rate of 9.0 has yet to translate to the Major League level, and his control has always been fairly average. Price was no doubt rushed by the Rays, with barely over 100 pro innings before making his debut late in the 2008 season, so we should take his numbers with a grain of salt. Additionally, he was able to duplicate his 2008 minor league K rate in AAA last season, so in that respect, I wouldn’t be too worried. What does worry me is that Price’s groundball rate plummeted last season, from around 50% to the low-40s. Price’s slider, considered his best pitch coming out of college, was nearly 5 runs bellow replacement in 2009 at the MLB level. This is clearly the problem. Price is a mystery at this point, and if another owner wants to buy into his full potential, stay away. But if his stuff returns to pre-2009 levels, your looking at one of the best young pitchers in baseball. So he’s worth a reasonable risk.

Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics - Although he seems like a popular sleeper pick, few know exactly how good this guy is. A full season 3.33 K/BB rate and 51% GB rate, along with an xFIP of 3.61, indicate near ace-level skills. But consider this: Anderson entered last season with just 31 innings above advanced A ball. His K rate was under 6, and his K/BB rate under 2 in both April and May of last season. As he adjusted to the Majors, those numbers shot through the roof. His xFIPs in the last four months of the season: 3.61, 3.28, 3.63, 2.11. Brett Anderson is not going to become an ace, because he already is one. Given his Cy Young caliber skills, and great ballpark environment, Anderson could be one of the top starters in the American League, and a good value where he is being drafted.

Don't forget about Derek Holland.

Derek Holland, Texas Rangers – His 6.12 ERA as a rookie, as well as the ballpark he plays in, will keep Hollands price low this spring. While his xFIP of 4.38 last season was certainly not great, there is a lot to like here. Holland is a strikeout pitcher, with a career minor league strikeout rate of nearly 10. His control was almost equally as good during much of his minor league career. A 6.96 K rate, and 3.06 BB rate were both very solid, and provide a good base for any young pitcher. His performance in June and Jully was even more encouraging with an xFIP under 4 and a K rate of nearly 9. Holland still needs to induce a few more groundballs, and his K and BB rates need to move towards the levels he posted in the high minor leagues, but his 2008 numbers, coupled with solid rookie year debut make him a good deep sleeper, especially in AL only leagues.

Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs – Wells did not receive the hype of the previous 3 pitchers. At 26 years old going into last season, I don’t think anyone expected 12 wins and a 3.05 ERA. Wells isn’t that good of a pitcher, but many are dismissing him as a factor next season. A groundball pitcher with very good control, Wells needs to strike out more batters to be more than a roster filler, but his minor league numbers the past few seasons say his success is not a fluke, and there may be upside for a more solid strikeout rate.

Brad Bergesen, Baltimore Orioles - Much like Wells, and unheralded rookie pitcher with a high GB rate and a low strikeout rate. The key here for Bergesen is the 50%+ groudnballs. His control is solid, with 2.54 BB/9 last year, but his K rate of 4.74 is at a dangerously low level. If Bergesen’s price ends up having more to do with his 3.43 ERA than his name value, you might want to stay out of the bidding. His K rate is just not high enough to provide any kind of upside. But  as a $1 roster filler in an AL only league, Bergesen could provide a solid 4ish ERA, innings eater with some upside for wins.

Catcher – Lou Marson, Cleveland Indians - Marson is currently the favorite to start 2010 as the Indians catcher, with Carlos Santana likely headed to AAA. If he does, he’s the definition of a good #2 catcher. He makes solid contact, walks quite a bit, and has some power. He wont hurt you with the batting average, and his defense could keep him in the lineup. Not worth much of a look in mixed leagues though.

First Base – Matt Laporta, Cleveland Indians – Not really a first baseman, but no one else sticks out, and outfield has too many names. Laporta destroyed AAA pitching last season, with a 16.6% K rate, 10.7% BB rate, and .231 ISO in 93 games. He struggled a bit in limited Major League playing time, but still showed good power and average contact abilities. Assuming health and a full time role in 2010, he’s going to be a major value pick. He has an Adam Lind type skill set. There’s no reason he can’t hit .285 with 30+ home runs.

Second Base – Luis Valbuena, Cleveland Indians – Um, what the hell? Another Indian? I considered going with Chris Getz here, but I don’t think he’s nearly as “under the radar.” Valbuena should get full time at bats in 2010, and he really has a skill set worth looking at in AL only leagues. He only hit .250 last season, but his minor league track record suggests a higher-contact hitter than we’ve seen. He just turned 24, so I’d bet we see those K and BB rates start to move toward his minor league norms. He also has solid speed. While he didn’t run much last season, he stole 18 bases in 2008, 11 in 2007, and 21 in 2006. Also developing here is some serious power. In 2008, he posted an ISO of .179 in AA. After a promotion, his power vanished, but it returned at AAA to start 2009, with a .229 ISO in 22 games, and in the Major Leagues, with a .166 in 103 games. Basically, you have a young middle infielder who will get full time at bats, and could potentially help you across the board.

Third Base – Brandon Wood – Los Angeles Angels – Not sure he counts as a second year player, as much as the Angels yank him around, but he sort of applies here. Like Laporta, his AAA numbers were superb. In 99 games he hit 22 homers, with an ISO of .264. No one ever questioned the power, but the batting average should no longer be a big issue either. Wood was once one of the big strikeout guys in all of the minors, but his K rate has continued to improve, dropping from 26.3% in 2008 to just 20.7% in 2009. Wood just turned 25, and with Figgins out of the way, it’ll be hard for the Angels not to give the guy an opportunity. Tremendous upside. I want him on my team in 2010.

Shortstop – Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers - Andrus had a very solid rookie season, but there is still significant growth to be had here. The guy was 20 years old, A ball age. Basically everything he does now, he will likely improve on going forward. His K rate was at a career professional low last season, as his walks stayed relatively stable with his AA level. His power was also at an all time high, with an ISO over .100 for the first time as a pro, as well as 6 home runs. With full time at bats next season, Andrus will likely steal 40-50 bases, and as his plate discipline improves, that number could go up. His .267 batting average should improve, potentially quite a bit. And given his power growth last season, and his age, double digit homers may not be out of reach. This guys upside is through the roof, both for 2010 and beyond.

Outfield – Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rookies – Fowler struggled a bit making the jump from AA to the Majors, but the pieces are there, as is the upside. His skill set is similar to that of BJ Upton. He walks quite a bit, 12.9% of the time last year, and has very good speed, stealing 27 bases in only 433 at bats. But he also struck out more than 25% of the time. His minor league numbers indicate a more solid contact hitter, and if he can get that strikeout rate down just a bit, his .266 average should rise. The speed is real, but what about the power? It’s always been expected Fowler would hit for power as he matured, and I’d have to agree. In 2008, at AA, he posted a .181 ISO. Although he only hit 9 home runs, did hit 31 doubles and 9 triples, and his .141 ISO from last season is just about average. Fowler does a good job of distributing the flyballs, groundballs, and line drives so that he can hit for a solid average without limiting the power, and that 3.6% HR/FB rate could easily rise. A lot of upside here.

Carlos Gonzalez has Matt Kemp type upside.

Outfield – Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rookies - Fowler’s teammate, and in my opinion, the better of the two by a lot. He’s been waiting for a full time role since 2007, and could get one next season. His AAA numbers last year were off the charts, with an ISO of almost .300 and a K rate around 16%. After promotion to the Majors, Gonzalez struck out a bit more often,  but still stole 16 bases, and posted an ISO over .240. The power-speed here is real, and considering he hit .330 in AAA last season, the batting average should be there soon. If you want my deepest sleeper to move into the upper echelon, top couple of round, elite territory next year, it’s Carlos Gonzalez.

Outfield – Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins – Being forgotten far too quickly, Maybin was still a top-5 prospect going into last season, and he wont turn 23 until April. Last season was a disappointment. Maybin didn’t steal bases like in years past; After 27, 30, and 25 steals the past few seasons (in under/around 400 at bats each year) he only stole 9 last season. His speed was still there though, as evident by his 10 triples, so I wouldn’t be too worried. While he struggled in the big leagues, his AAA numbers give some hope he may be turning things around with the bat. He hit .319, and his K rate dropped under 20%. He also walked 11% of the time. He again showed some solid power, although he has yet to really breakout here. Maybin was clearly rushed, but the talent that made him such a highly regarded prospect is still here.

Matt Wieters and Travis Snider were both huge prospects going into last season, and both underperformed. But they aren’t on the list above. That doesn’t mean I don’t think they have bright futures, and Snider isn’t being taken all that early. I just don’t think they represent huge value. Wieters is the consensus #4 catcher, and while he may very well be the 4th best catcher in fantasy baseball, he just isn’t good value there. I was never all that high on Snider in the short term. I think, long term, there is huge upside here. But for 2010, I’d keep my expectations in check.

Some other names to consider: Kyle Blanks, Chris Getz, Matt Gamel, Colby Rasmus, Jordan Schafer.

9:08 - First round, sitting 13th. Carl Crawford almost fell to me, ended up with Evan Longoria. Not my favorite pick, but 3B is shallow, and he’s still only 23, so he could get even better. On the way back I grabbed Jacoby Ellsbury. I’m not a fan of Ellsbury this year as there’s too much speed to be had latter in the draft. But at pick 18.. too much value to pass up.

9:17 - Round 3, I’m between Derek Jeter and Brian McCann. I decide to pick McCann.. catcher is just so shallow, and I don’t need Jeter’s steals as much. But Jeter is still there with the 3rd pick in the next round, and I get them both. Great success!

9:20 – If there’s anything I’m really lacking in now it’s power. Hopefully Kendry slides to me with my next pick, but I doubt it. First base is pretty top heavy this year.

9:24 – My two main targets – Morales and Nelson Cruz – are gone. I think I’m going to take Carlos Pena. Can’t afford to miss out on all the solid first baseman. After that, I’m not sure.

9:29 - Pena in round 5. I think my OF targets will fall, so I’m going to pick up an elite closer. Jon Papplebon in round 6. Luxury pick (but so was Ellbury, right?)

9:37 - Yeah that didn’t work. I need a starter now, so I’m going to take Cole Hamels. Coming back I thought I had Jay Bruce picked, but I didn’t. It autopicked Denard Spann. At least I’m set with steals.

9:47 - Added to my rotation with Wandy Rodriguez, then took Howie Kendrick coming back. MUST DRAFT POWER.

9:54 – Thinking Brett Anderson and a bat here. Not sure which though. Maybe Travis Snider? Jermaine Dye?

9:55 – And there goes Anderson in the 11th. Gotta take him earlier if I really want him. Oh well, I can still grab Brandon Webb. And he’s gone too. I know better than to pick Scott Baker, but I do it anyway. A noticeable lack of power nets me Nick Swisher.

10:08 - I need to add to my outfield, looking mostly for solid batting average, good power. That leads me to Nolan Reimold, and with my next pick, I take a flier on Jason Heyward. Looks like he’ll make the team, and the upside is so high, he needs to be off the board at this point.

10:15 – Saves dried up quickly. I’m thinking about Jason Frasor… but I might just take the risk that he falls to me with my next pair of picks.

10:20 – Joba and Edwin Encarnacion. Frasor better drop.

10:27 - Grab both Frasor and Scott Downs. Can’t hurt my ERA and WHIP, and I need some guaranteed saves.

10:33 – Buster Posey joins the team as my #2 catcher. Wont hurt me, and when he gets called up, he’ll outproduce the other options left. Jason Hammel is a solid addition to the pitching staff.

10:42 – Last three picks were Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez, and Derek Holland.

Brian Fuentes has saved 159 games since 2005, with a skill set to back it up.

Los Angeles Angels:

Closer – Brian Fuentes.
Setup – Fernando Rodney.
Best pitchers – Fuentes.

Even after a 48 save season, most are going to be down on Fuentes. And rightfully so, the guy pitched quite poorly. His ERA almost hit 4, and his FIP and xFIP were way worse. That said, he’s a year removed from truly elite across the board numbers, and he was one of the best closers in baseball during the first half. It’s possible he was hurt or just overworked during the second half of last season, and that we’ll see the same old Fuentes in 2010, making him a decent bargain, especially given the team he plays for. Fernando Rodney was somewhat successful last season, but he doesn’t have the skill set to back it up. If Fuentes loses his job, Rodney might get some looks, but Kevin Jepsen is definitely the second pitcher you want to own in this bullpen.

Texas Rangers:

Closer – Frank Francisco.
Setup – CJ Wilson.
Best pitchers – Francisco.

Frank Francisco had an up and down year in 2009, spending a lot of time on the DL, but his numbers were fine across the board. His propensity for giving up home runs keeps him from being an elite level closer, but if he stays on the field, he should be a solid #2 in mixed leagues. Given those health risks, it might be worth owning CJ Wilson, who had a breakout year last season, with a 2.89 FIP and 3.25 xFIP, although you really only need to roster him in AL only leagues. If Neftali Feliz stays in the bullpen to start 2010, he might contend for saves, given his complete dominance at the end of last season.

Seattle Mariners:

Closer – David Aardsma.
Setup – Brandon League.
Best pitchers – League.

A bullpen to watch. Aardsma had some success last season, but his track record, and his 2009 FIP, say that success could come to an end very quickly. The defense and ballpark in Seattle will help him out, but if he falters – and that’s no stretch – Brandon League has the skill set to close, with a 3.62 K/BB rate and 55.7% GB rate last season. Aardsma is in a good situation in Seattle, but he’s still a risk, and League has an elite all around skill set, so watch out.

Oakland Athletics:

Closer – Andrew Bailey.
Setup – Joey Devine.
Best pitchers – Bailey.

Andrew Bailey came out of nowhere last year, and some may look at his minor league track record and conclude he can’t repeat his success. They are wrong. Since being converted into a reliever, Bailey has done nothing but dominate the competition, and he should continue to do so in 2010, as one of the best closers in all of baseball. Joey Devine has a similarly elite skill set, but given his injury last season, and Bailey’s success, he’s unlikely to win the job out of Spring Training. If Bailey goes down, Devine could be a good pickup, but otherwise, this Oakland bullpen is pretty much locked down.

Minnesota Twins:

Closer - Joe Nathan.
Setup – Matt Guerrier.
Best pitcher - Nathan.

Nathan is still an elite closer and has shown very little reason to doubt him in 2010. 2009 was one of Nathan’s best seasons (although we could say that any year). He struck out almost 12 batters per 9 after a couple of seasons with a sub-10 K rate, and his FIP was again under 3. An upswing in FB% led to a few more homeruns, but don’t worry. He’s going to give you and elite ERA, tons of Ks, and 30-50 saves. Ever year. Past that, I don’t really see any great options in this bullpen. There are several arms but no one I love. Guerrier will probably start as the primary setup guy, although Jon Rauch probably has the most intriguing skill set of the group. Still, especially with Nathan being as consistent as he is, I’d stay away from the rest of that ‘pen.

Detroit Tigers:

Closer - Jose Valverde.
Setup – Joel Zumaya.
Best pitcher – Valverde.

Valverde enters 2010 as the Tigers closer, and his fairly solid skill set and experience make him a pretty safe bet to post another good season. There are some red flags here. His K rate dropped from 10.38 to 9.33, and his BB rate returned to pre-2008 levels. Still, there isn’t much behind him in that bullpen, so as long as he remains serviceable, he’s in no danger of losing his job. Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, and Daniel Schlereth all posses above average stuff and closer level upside, but their control and recent major league performance should keep everyone’s expectations in check. If Valverde goes down though, you want to own Perry.

Chicago White Sox:

Closer - Bobby Jenks.
Setup - Matt Thornton.
Best pitcher - Thornton.

This bullpen situation could have huge implications, as two highly skilled relievers reside in the South Side of Chicago. Bobby Jenks, the incumbent closer, had some issues with the team this past off-season, but he’s come into camp 20 pounds lighter, and his skill set from last season showed no signs of decline. It’s his job to lose, and in all likelihood, he wont. That said, Matt Thornton is one of the best setup men in baseball. If Jenks runs into trouble, or ends up somewhere else at the All Star break, Thornton immediately becomes one of the top closers in the AL, so keep a close eye on this situation.

Kansas City Royals:

Closer - Joakim Soria.
Setup - Juan Cruz.
Best pitcher - Soria.

Not much to say here, as Soria is among the best closers in baseball, young, and still getting better. Behind him, there are several intriguing arms. Kyle Farnsworth could start 2010 in the rotation, which would leave Juan Cruz as the Royals’ main setup guy. Cruz was atrocious last season. After two straight years of 12+ K rates, he failed to strikeout 7 guys per 9 and his ERA jumped from 3.61 to 5.73. He still has poor control, and gives up too many homers, so you probably should just stay away. Aaron Crow, the Royals first round pick in the 2009 draft, is more than a year removed from college, and should be ready for the big leagues right away, so if he doesn’t make the starting rotation, there is some reason to believe he could land in the bullpen. His power stuff and dangerous mechanics draw BJ Ryan comparisons. He might be worth a small bid in AL only leagues, but Soria’s job is obviously safe, assuming he stays healthy.

Kerry Wood is still the closer in Cleveland; don't be afraid to draft him as such.

Cleveland Indians:

Closer - Kerry Wood.
Setup – Chris Perez.
Best pitcher - Wood?

The Indians bullpen is fantasy hell. Two years ago, Rafael Betancourt was the best middle reliever in baseball, only to suffer a major collapse in 2008. A year ago, Rafael Perez might have held that title. He completely collapsed as well. Kerry Wood entered last year as a borderline elite closer, and nearly lost his job. But we still have to talk about it. Kerry Wood has the skill set to be a competent closer, all be it an inconsistent one. Behind him, Rafael Perez is still a year removed from elite-MR status, and Chris Perez a year removed from being the Daniel Bard of 2008. Given Wood’s inconsistency, I’d give both a look, but don’t expect Wood to give up his job easily. He still possess 80 strikeout, 35 save potential, and is worth a look as a cheap save source in all formats.

Adrian Beltre provied the Mariners with Gold Glove caliber defense in 2009, and should do the same for Boston next year.

Last July, Jarrod Washburn was having the best year of his career. The 34 year old right hander had a 2.64 ERA, good for a 164 ERA+, as well as a WHIP under 1.2. Then he got traded to the Tigers. By the time the season was over, his ERA rose over 100 points. Some of this had to do with regression, and leaving Safeco. But the the biggest factor? Defense. The Mariners put together one of the best defenses in recent memory last year, and their pitchers prospered. Identifying which teams have greatly improved their defense will help us find the next Jarrod Washburn – or even Felix Hernandez. The team making the most significant defensive improvement in 2010 is likely to be the Boston Red Sox.

For a progressive, statistically friendly team, the Red Sox sure took a long time coming around to the fact that defense does matter. Last season, the Red Sox ranked 16th in the Majors in UZR. Certainly respectable, but losing 16.3 runs in the field couldn’t have helped their pitchers. That’s not going to be the case next season.

The Red Sox received some pretty abysmal outfield play last year. Although JD Drew was well above average in right, Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury cost the team 31.6 runs in left and center field. The Sox acquired Mike Cameron from the Brewers, and assuming he slots into center, he will alleviate both issues. A gold glove caliber outfielder, he was worth 10 runs in the field last season. Ellsbury would presumably move over to left, where he is better suited. Per 150 games, Ellsbury is 21.8 runs above average in left field, compared to 10.6 runs bellow in center. If he were to only perform at a league average rate, assuming a positive 10 run performance from Cameron, the Red Sox defense would improve by more than 40 runs, and Ellsbury has shown he can be more than an average left fielder.

The infield defense will be better as well. Last season, Kevin Youkilis ended up playing third base for much of the season. Youkilis is a very good first baseman, but at best, an average third baseman. With the acquisition of Adrian Beltre, a gold glove caliber fielder who was more than 14 runs above average last season, the Sox go from having an average/bellow average player at both first and third, to having a potential gold glover at both positions. Dustin Pedroia is solid as ever at second base, and Marco Scutaro, although mearly average last year, was always known more for his glove than his bat.

The Red Sox could potentially field a well above average defender at EVERY position next season, moving them from a middle of the pack team to among the best in the league defensively. Make sure to keep this in mind when considering Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, or any other Red Sox pitcher in your draft or auction. If Lester and Beckett pitch as well as they did in 2009, each could be legitimate Cy Young contenders with this new defense behind them.

Johan Santana, this January, threw for the first time since his elbow surgery in September.

Is Johan Santana on the decline? Many seem to think so, including ESPN.com’s Tristan Cockcroft, who today questioned whether Johan would end 2010 among the top-100 players in fantasy baseball. While Johan certainly carries some risk, I really don’t believe the two time Cy Young award winner is done pitching at an elite level just yet.

Going into last season, I very clearly stated I thought Johan Santana was on the decline. On the surface, his 2008 season looked like vintage Johan. A 2.53 ERA was a career low for the two time Cy Young award winner, and although he got a bit unlucky with the wins – 16 – he finished the season with over 200 strikeouts and a WHIP well under 1.20. But vintage Johan? Not quite. His strikeout rate fell bellow 9 for the first time since 2001, and his FIP was more than 100 points higher than his ERA. His velocity was way down, he wasn’t missing nearly as many bats, he wasn’t the same Johan.

Looking at last season as a whole, it would appear as though Santana was basically the same pitcher he was in 2008, with worse luck and a few more flyballs. His K rate stayed bellow 8, and his FIP of 3.79 was not ace caliber in the slightest. Throw in a late season surgery, and decline might be the appropriate term. The problem is that surgery. Those who downgrade Johan for his injury fail to realize how much it effected him for the final few months of the season. It clearly effected him significantly.

Let’s go back to June 1st, three months before Johan went under the knife. How did his numbers look at that point? Pretty freaking good. A couple of months into the year, he might just have been the Cy Young favorite, with a 7-3 record and 1.77 ERA in 66 innings. His underlying numbers were even more encouraging. His strikeout rate was through the roof at 11.72, and although his walk rate was a bit up, his K/BB rate was still an impressive 4.3.  Watching Johan in the first couple of months of the season, it was clear that he was pitching at a higher level than almost anyone else in baseball. Hitters just couldn’t touch him.

Then on June 2nd, Johan took the mound against Pittsburgh. He did manage a quality start, but for the first time all season, he struck out fewer than six batters. Then the wheels fell off. Against Philly on June 9th, he gave up 4 homers, and 5 ER, managing only 2 strikeouts. His next start, against the Yankees, he gave up a career high 9 ER, and again struck out only 3 batters. Something was wrong. During the first two months of the season, he struck out 7+ batters in 90% of his starts. He would do that only once in the next 3 months. On August 25th, Johan went on the DL, and on September 1st, he underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow.

Looking at that season, I can’t help but guess that Santana was hurt for much of the season. Early in the year, when healthy, he was possibly the best pitcher in the NL. He was dominating at a level we hadn’t seen from him since he joined the Mets. The wheels came off in early June, and he clearly wasn’t the same pitcher. Overall, I think there are two major factors working in opposite directions here. On one hand, Johan Santana is 31 years old and coming off fairly major surgery (albeit a surgery he had in 2003, the year before he won his first Cy Young award). On the other hand, when he was 100% last season, Johan was arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball. I think you have to give him a bit of a bump down given his injury, and his low K rate in 2008, as well as the drop in velocity he has experienced the past couple of seasons. But the first two months of 2009, to me, prove that he can still be the best, or near the best pitcher in baseball when he’s on. Basically, he’s worth taking a sizable risk.

If I tell you Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols are going to be good, that’s extremely unlikely to generate any conversation. If, however, I tell you Trevor Cahill will be the A’s best pitcher next season, then there is at least the potential to learn something. Of course, he wont be (there’s my first bold prediction right off the bat).

1. Brett Anderson will be the best second year pitcher in Major League Baseball, better even than Tommy Hanson, finishing the year with an ERA under 3.40.

2. Someone will draft Josh Johnson in rounds 8-10 thinking they have a solid #2 fantasy starter with upside, and end the season with a Cy Young contender/winner. (think Zack Grienke v.2)

3. Luke Hochevar will finish 2010 with an ERA under 4.

4. Brandon League will lead the Mariners in saves, and provide a major payoff for a buck at most auctions.

5. Rick Porcello will spend part of 2010 in the Minor Leagues.

6. Stephen Strasburg will be as good as advertised, winning the NL ROTY. Due to David Price Syndrome, he will be drafted latter than he should in most leagues.

7. Joba Chamberlain will pitch at least 170 innings, winning 15+ games, with an ERA under 3.75, and striking out around or above 200 Ks.

8. Cole Hamels will end the season with a lower ERA and WHIP than Matt Cain, winning more games and striking out more batters.

9. Dan Haren wont collapse in the second half.

10. Francisco Liriano will be in the Cy Young conversation, with an ERA in the low 3s and tons of Ks.

11. Erik Bedard will not pitch in the first half.

12. Kendry Morales will build on his 2009 season, hitting .300 with 35+ homers, and moving himself into the upper-echelon of fantasy first baseman.

13. Juan Pierre will steal 40+ bases, and provide far more value than anyone gives him credit for.Brett Gardner too.

14. Martin Perez will spend the last two months of the season in the Major Leagues, at only 19, and head into 2011 as one of the top young pitchers in baseball.

Next Ryan Braun?

15. Joe Mauer will fail to hit 20 home runs.

16. Jay Bruce will be a first round pick in 2011, after hitting .300 with 40 homers and 10 steals in 2010.

17. Curtis Granderson will hit 35+ homers, but steal under 10 bases.

18. Matt Capps will keep the Nationals closing role all season, saving at least 30 games.

19. Carlos Santana will win the AL ROTY award, and end the season with better numbers than Matt Wieters and Buster Posey.

20. Homer Bailey will finally live up to the hype, and end the season as the Reds top starter.

Ankiel’s story is well known to most baseball fans. A highly touted high school pitcher, he was drafted by the Cardinals in 1997, and by 1999 he was considered one of the top prospects in all of Baseball, Baseball America’s minor league player of the year. Injuries destroyed his career as a pitcher, but in 2005, he transitioned to the outfield and began to hit. In 2007, Ankiel hit 32 homers in AAA before a promotion to the Majors, were he hit .285 with 11 homers in only 47 games. In 2008, he would again produce good power numbers. Although he only hit .264, his 25 homers and .242 ISO provided significant value.

Last year was a bit of a disaster though. Injured on May 4th, he spent a few weeks on the DL. He return to play a career high 122 games, but he clearly wasn’t himself. He hit .231 with just 11 homers, as his ISO dipped to just .156. This can be partly attributed to the injury. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs believes this to a be a good signing for the Royals (is that even possible?) and think he will fill a major hole in right field. If he is to start, there is some fantasy value here. He will hurt your average, and he’s not worth a gamble in mixed leagues, but there is plenty of power upside.

But I’m not sure I can pin this squarely on the injury. Pre-injury, he was hitting under .250 and his power numbers were just as bad (2 homers and a .148 ISO). When he came back from the injury, in June and July, he was actually hitting ok. He wasn’t himself, but he wasn’t much worse than pre-injury Ankiel. It was really his last couple of months that killed his season. It’s hard to pick out any point in which he was playing at a high level. April was ok – a .265 average and a .772 OPS – but he only hit 2 home runs.

Ankiel is worth some risk. He was clearly hurt last season, and his upside is in the 25-30 homer range. He wont help your average, but if you can get him cheap, go for it. But if your league mates are expecting a full bounce back, or close to it, stay away. Ankiel’s 2009 season was a major failure and there isn’t much hope to be found in his numbers. Maybe he can bounce back, or maybe not. I’m betting he doesn’t.

4. Desmond Jennings, CF, Tampa Bay Rays – After missing much of the 2008 season due to injury, Jennings came back better than ever in 2009. He has true five tool potential, the most impressive of which is clearly his speed. In 2009, Jennings stole 52 bases and hit 10 triples, after 45 steals in 2007. Jennings hit a career high 11 homers last season, and he has yet to fill out completely. He does have good raw power, although his propensity to hit the ball on the ground may hinder his development in this area. The thing that makes me believe he has a great hot at fulfilling his enormous potential is his plate discipline. Not only does he make a ton of contact, he also walks quite a bit as well, with a 57/57 walk to strikeout rate last season. His defense is also a major asset, and he’s +22 runs for his minor league career. It’s rare that you find a player with tools like Jennings’ has, as well as an advanced approach at the plate and awesome defense. Super star upside. Could force his way into the Tampa Bay lineup really soon. MLB comparison: More patient Carl Crawford.

3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers - Feliz’s potential is incredible, and there is an argument to be made that he should rank ahead of Stephen Straburg. Strasburg has the slight edge, do mostly to his command, but that’s no knock on Neftali. In 2009, Feliz started in AAA, eventually transitioning into a relief role, and finding himself in Texas down the stretch. In his first 22 innings, Feliz struck out 28 batters, walking only 1, with an ERA of .41. He faded just a bit in September, but there is no questioning the fact that he can already get Major League hitters out. His fastball is already one of the best in baseball, sitting in the mid to high 90s. An athletic pitcher, Feliz has a smooth delivery and easy velocity. He also has two other plus pitches, a curveball and changeup, and both are only getting better. His control has always been a bit of an issue, but it improved quite a bit last season. He may start next year in the bullpen, and should be on an innings limit, but his future is no doubt in the rotation. MLB comparison: Pedro Martinez.

Strasburg is the best pitching prospect to come out since Prior.

2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals - I seriously considered putting Strasburg #1, as I’ve never seen a prospect quite like him coming out of college. I don’t think I’ve seen a prospect like him, period, so even without any minor league innings, I feel he needs to be in the top couple of spots. His skill set is crazy. If you created a 21 year old right handed pitcher in MLB 2K, and maxed out all his skills, he might look a little like Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg throws in the upper 90s, hitting triple digits with ease, as well as a plus power curveball in the mid-80s that should be a legitimate strikeout pitch in the big leagues. Strasburg has a decent changeup, although some think it’s a better pitch at this point than others. His command is also top notch and his athletic build should help him avoid injuries and rack up innings. That alone would make him among the best prospects in recent memory, but let’s not forget his performance at San Diego State. In 2009, Strasburg went 13-1 with a 1.31 ERA, 16.1 K rate, and 1.6 BB rate. He gave up a total of 4 homers, after giving up just one in 2008. For his career at SDSU, Strasburg had a 1.59 ERA, a 7.5 K/BB rate, and a FIP of 1.00. His mechanics have some worried, but they aren’t too bad, and predicting injury based on mechanics can be a very foolish process. His pro debut in the AFL went well. In 19 innings, he struck out 23 batters (although he walked 7) and posted an incredible 4.67 ground out to air out ratio. Some think Strasburg will jump right to the big leagues, although I would likely give him some time in the minors, both to make sure he was ready and delay his arbitration. His upside is ridiculous. Possibly the most talented pitcher in the world right now. Major league comparison: Mark Prior.

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves - Heyward is the safest bet in the minors, which is crazy considering his age. In 2009, as a teenager, Heyward hit .327 with a .967 OPS through three levels, culminating in a 24 AB stint with AAA Gwinnett, where he hit .333, with 5 walks and 5 strikeouts. His polish is unprecedented at 19, and his tools are among the best in baseball. They have to be to get you drafted 14th overall out of high school. With strong wrists and a quick bat, Heyward will never have trouble driving the ball. He has yet to develop into a real slugger, but he posted a very solid .227 ISO last season, and 17 homers in 370 at bats is great, especially considering his age to level. Most scouts see him becoming a consistent 30+ homerun hitter at the big league level. Heyward also has a very advanced approach at the plate. Last year, he walked more and cut down on the strikeouts. Heyward was never a line drive hitter through the minors, and that continued at advanced A ball in ‘09. However, after a promotion to AA, Heyward was able to raise his LD% over 20% for the first time in his career. He’s a good athlete and baserunner, who has stolen 25 out of 28 bases the past two seasons. On top of all this, Heyward is a very good defender in RF with one of the better arms in the minor leagues, at +13 runs in RF for 2008, and +9 in right for 2009. Heyward should reach the big leagues at some point during the 2010 season, and while it’s probably worth it to let him stay down for a few months, develop a bit more, and avoid super-two status, he’s good enough that we could see him in the show before his 21st birthday. There’s even talk of him starting the year in the Braves lineup. Major league comparison: Gary Shefield.