Nineteen others have done that in modern baseball history. Four of those players, Claudell Washington, Vada Pinson, Buddy Lewis, and Cecil Travis were “just” All-Stars. [...]]]> Any discussion of Cubs shorstop Starlin Castro has to begin with the following statement of fact: Starlin Castro hit .300 in the big leagues at 20 years old.

Nineteen others have done that in modern baseball history. Four of those players, Claudell Washington, Vada Pinson, Buddy Lewis, and Cecil Travis were “just” All-Stars. Stuffy McKinnis and Dick Hobitzell retired before the All-Star games inception, but both would most certainly have made a team if given the chance. Three of those guys were regular old Hall of Famers by names of Freedi Lindstrom, Travis Jackson, and Orlando Cepeda. The other 10 were named Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle, Rogers Hornsby, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Al Kaline, and Arky Vaughan.

The point is that Starlin Castro is a special talent. The ability to hit a baseball as well as he does at so young an age is incredibly unique and no matter what else he does well, this bodes well for his future. But what else will he do? That’s the question baseball fans have been asking since he made a splash in the big leagues, and that’s the question a new administration in Chicago will ask themselves as they plan to build around this guy going forward. At 21, he still has years to develop before we even see his best level of play. But what, if anything, do his first 1200 plate appearances in the big leagues tell us?

Despite a lack of power, present defensive prowess, or any great baserunning skills, Starlin Castro was ranked the 16th best prospect in baseball coming into the 2010 season. This is mostly because, as we discussed, he can hit a baseball. But he’s also a wiry strong young athlete with plus speed, a plus arm, and power potential. 

One comparison you’ll hear thrown around quite often is that of Miguel Tejada. Tejada was an athletic and strong young Dominican shorstop like Castro. Like Castro, he was a good athlete and quick footed, but made a number of errors at the position in his early minor league career. While Tejada never developed into a great shorstop, he was able to stay at the position for almost his entire career despite adding several pounds and losing some of the speed and range that had made him a five-tool prospect in the minor leagues. He was also one of the best hitters in baseball for a number of years, hitting over .300 five times in the big leagues.

Castro is substantially taller than Tejada was but despite adding some bulk over the past few seasons, he’s not the same kind of power hitter. While Tejada’s early minor league power showings came after the age of 21 – the age Castro is now – his body type was drastically different and his progression as a player far from what one could expect out of Starlin.

A name that perhaps must be mentioned is that of Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez shot through the Red Sox minor league system in much the same way Castro did the Cubs system, and while his progress was slower at the upper levels, he was a very similar player. The best hitter in the Red Sox system, he hit .352 as an 18-year-old, .314 a couple years later. He had quick hand and plus bat speed and the power potential was there – when he filled out. He was a good runner with a good arm who’d steal 20-30 bases a season and made plenty of errors despite possessing the raw skills to be an above average defensive shortstop some day. Stop me if this sounds familiar.

The rest of course is history. Hanley hit near-.300 in his rookie season, and topped that mark four seasons in a row. By 25, he had a batting title. The power developed. He became a better baserunner. His defense is still somewhat suspect but he’s not making 40 errors a season and the tools are still there, if not the effort. Disappearing act in 2011 aside, this is obviously the best you can hope for out of any prospect. But are there signs that Theo Epstein, who’s greatest regret as Red Sox GM may very well be his short stint of resignation in which Hanley Ramirez was dealt to Florida, have another superstar in the making on his hands?

The short answer is that you can’t expect any player, no matter how gifted at the plate or how great an athlete, to become anything close to Hanley Ramirez. It’s too much, even for a guy who hit .300 at 20 years old. The other short answer is that yes, there are signs that Starlin Castro is beginning to develop into a superstar, that the power is coming along, that he’s improving as a baserunner, that he’s becoming an even better hitter, and that at 21, we’ve seen virtually nothing of the player Starlin Castro can become.

The book on Starlin Castro as a hitter in the minor leagues was that, unlike many a young offensive prospect, he could handle breaking balls really well. Take this snippet from Baseball America’s scouting report of Castro as he climbed the lader in 2010:

He has no trouble hitting breaking pitches, usually taking the first one from a pitcher he hasn’t seen before, sizing it up and attacking the next.

This held true, approximately, at the big league level. While he struggled on fastballs and sliders he hammered curveballs and changeups. He wasn’t baffled by a change of pace, or movement he hadn’t seen, but he was having some trouble catching up to the hard stuff that big league pitchers could show him. Last season, he made some good progress. He was worth positive runs above replacement on fastballs and although he was still fooled on occasion by sliders, that had about half as big a negative impact on his total offensive performance. He continued to hammer curves, changeups, cutters, and split-fingered fastballs. He was a little bit more agressive, which hurt his walk rate some, but allowed him to make more frequent contact, hit for a higher average, and yes, show a bit more power.

Another great development: some of those groundballs Castro was hitting in 2010 turned into line drives and flyballs. Some of those flyouts he was hitting 2010 turned into home runs. His infield pop percentage plummeted, and his HR/FB went from an abismal 2.8% to a much better 5.5%. There’s still plenty of room for growth here – league average is around 10% – and we should expect to see ever better power numbers as Castro matures and grows into his frame. Castro also used his speed more effectively last season, stealing 11 more bases while getting caught just once more in substantially more times on base. He also hit nine triples. While age could eventually hinder his ability to make a difference on the bases, he’s a great athlete who’s skills on the bases are developing and should continue to do so.

Defensively, Castro made fewer erros and converted a great percentage of balls in his zone into outs. He seems to be improving fundamentally as a shorstop and while he made fewer plays outside his zone in 2011 than in 2010, and in more innings, this could easily be due to random fluctuation. We know he has the tools to play the position and we know he’s developing into a fundamentally sound defender, or at least closer to one. That’s good enough for me.

A year ago, I think even the closest observers of Castro and the Cubs organization may have had little idea what this guy was going to turn into, other than some kind of really awesome baseball player. He’s just a year older, he’s still got miles to grow, but 2011 provided some encouraging signs across the board. He can hit, he’s a good athlete, he’s becoming a better overall baseball player, and the power is developing. Can Starlin Castro be the next Hanley Ramirez or Miguel Tejada. It’s certainly a stretch. But the development is very encouraging.

In a stunning turn of events Monday night, 2008 Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee agreed to return to the Philadelphia Phillies, turning down higher offers from the two teams long believed to be the only contenders in the Lee sweepstakes. As fans in Philadelphia drool over a rotation led by possibly [...]]]>

Not a Yankee.

In a stunning turn of events Monday night, 2008 Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee agreed to return to the Philadelphia Phillies, turning down higher offers from the two teams long believed to be the only contenders in the Lee sweepstakes. As fans in Philadelphia drool over a rotation led by possibly the two best pitchers in all of baseball, fans in both Texas and New York are left wondering where they go now.

For the Yankees, this is nothing short of a disaster. Lee came within hours of pinstripes several months ago before David Adams injured ankle caused the Mariners to back out of a potential deal and landed Lee in Texas. Lee led Texas past the Yankees and into the World Series, and as he hit the open market, nearly everyone in baseball believed he would sign with New york.

The Yankees could enter 2011 with a rotation of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett, Ivan Nova, and Sergio Mitre, far from championship quality. But with upwards of 20 million dollars over the next six or seven years not commuted to Cliff Lee, the question remains: where do the Yankees go from here? How can they compete with the newly improved Boston Red Sox, and the Phillies in the National League?

It’s worth noting that this Yankees team, almost entirely as is right now, won 95 games last year. A similar team won the more than 100 games and a World Series in 2009, led by CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and a shaky back of the rotation. The Yankees have a true ace in Sabathia, an emerging front line starter in Hughes, and a massive question mark – albeit a very talented one in AJ Burnett.

The Yankees first priority at the moment is likely to re-sign Andy Pettitte. Should they bring back Pettitte, they’ll have retained just about every piece from the playoff 2010 team. While Andy is currently leaning towards retirement according to several sources, Cashman will likely go hard after Pettitte in the coming months. A rotation of Sabathia, Pettitte, Hughes, Burnett, and Nova, while far from ideal, wouldn’t look too shabby.

In any other off-season, simply retaining a 95-win team would be viewed as a success, especially with players such as Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, and Andy Pettitte hitting free agency. But the Red Sox improved their team greatly by landing Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, and the Phillies now look like the class of the National League with a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt. Expectations were set very high for the Yankees heading into the winter meetings, with some sources even reporting the team would land both Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. It didn’t work out that way.

If the Yankees want to improve their rotation, there are a few options still out there on the free agent market. Brandon Webb is the kind of player who could really help the Yankees. While health is a major concern – he’s thrown just 4 innings in the big leagues over the past two years – he finished first, second, and second in National League Cy Young voting in his last three healthy seasons. He could be had relatively cheep, and if he was even a shadow of his former self the Yankees could have a solid #2 starter to pair with CC Sabathia. If he truly returned to dominance, which isn’t impossible given his age, the Yankees would have the two aces they covet to go with a solid back of the rotation.

The Yankees aren’t really seen as players for Webb at the moment. A name they have been more connected to is Zack Greinke. While some are understandably skeptical about how Greinke would play in New York, the guy is 27 years old and clearly one of the five or ten best pitchers in baseball. He was the best pitcher in the league in 2009, and while his ERA spike last year, his underlying numbers indicate he was still one of the 10 or 15 best pitchers in the league. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Dayton Moore doesn’t seem to like what the Yankees have to offer, and Greinke would cost a lot. He’s a possibility, but a long shot at this point.

Beyond Greinke, there isn’t really another ace on the trading block. Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano, and Felix Hernandez aren’t going anywhere. Chris Carpenter might be a fit, but if the Cardinals sense they wont be able to re-sign Albert Pujols this coming winter, they’re much more likely to go all out in 2011. Carpenter is also rather old himself, and health is still somewhat of a concern. If the Yankees can’t land a #1 starter, they’ll probably look to acquire a #2 starter they can pair with Sabathia, someone who wont make headlines like Lee but who will help to solidify their rotation.

For this role, I think Wandy Rodriguez might be a good fit. He’s always been a bit under the radar, but the Astros are in full out rebuilding mode right now, and Wandy is on the wrong side of 30. He’s not a flashy name, and he’s not a #1 starter, but he’s a safer bet at the #2 spot than Hughes, Pettitte, or Burnett, and he’s probably a more realistic option than Greinke or Carpenter.

Another name to consider: Chad Billingsley. The Yankees have been attached to Billinsgley rumors for a few years now, thought nothing has ever come of them. Billingsley is still young and very talented, and he’s also a good #2 starter, a guy who could really help to solidify New York’s rotation and wouldn’t cost too much. Given the Dodgers ownership situation, and the rate at which the NL West has improved over the past year, they might be willing to move Billingsley for younger players, and the Yankees, with their depth of catching and pitching prospects, would be a natural fit.

At the end of the day, I expect the Yankees will be ok. They won 95 games last year, and rotation of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Andy Pettitte was good enough to win the World Series in 2009. I expect Pettitte will be back next year, and that Cashman will make a move to bring in one more starting pitcher. Will the Yankees put together a super-rotation and take back the headlines from Boston? No. But come April, they’ll still be one of the most talented teams in baseball, and come October, they’ll still be right in the thick of things.

11:58 – Joel Sherman reporting Lee to Phillies is official.

11:56 - Lee to Phillies close to official.

11:55 – SI.COMs Jon Heyman reports Yankees are out of Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

11:49 - Nothing is official as of yet. A Fantasy Bullpen source is still confident that Lee to Philly [...]]]>

11:58 – Joel Sherman reporting Lee to Phillies is official.

11:56 - Lee to Phillies close to official.

11:55 – SI.COMs Jon Heyman reports Yankees are out of Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

11:49 - Nothing is official as of yet. A Fantasy Bullpen source is still confident that Lee to Philly is a “done deal,” with the conventional wisdom being that nothing is done yet, and that Lee has yet to make a decision, though he may be leaning towards the Phillies. Things should clear up on Tuesday. Or maybe not.

11:42 – Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes no deal has been reached, but that Lee will have to decide between his preferred team (the Phillies) and the team offering him the most money (the Yankees).

11:02 - A source in Philadelphia has indicated to Fantasy Bullpen that Cliff Lee is indeed heading to Philadelphia. This trade is far from official but rumors have been circulating for the past couple of hours. More information to come.

Lee will likely need to leave tens of millions of dollars over two years on the table to sign in Philly. The deal is rumored to be in the neighborhood of five years, 100 million dollars, far off from the seven year, 160 million dollar deal the Yankees offered Lee, and probably far less than what Texas has on the table. The Phillies traded Lee to the Seattle Mariners a year ago around this time.

Halladay had a Cinderella first season in Philadelphia, going 21-10 with a 2.44 [...]]]> In a move that surprised no one, Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay unanimously won his second career Cy Young award, his first in the National League, beating out Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright for the most prestigious prize in pitching.

Halladay had a Cinderella first season in Philadelphia, going 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 219 strikeouts, all among the best in the league. Halladay threw his first career perfect game on May 29th, and the second All-Time playoff no-hitter in the NLDS against Cincinnati.

The Phillies ace lead the league in complete games for the sixth time in his last eight seasons, approaching career bests in both wins and ERA, though falling short of his 22 win 2003 season.

That 2003 season was Halladay’s first Cy Young campaign. Halladay set a career low in ERA in 2005, when he was 28 years old.

Other contenders for the award included Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who finished second in 2009, Florida ace Josh Johnson, and Ubalod Jimenez, who appeared the overwhelming favorite for much of the first half of the season.

Jimenez faded down the stretch and Halladay finished strong, leading the league in wins, K/BB rate, innings, complete games, shutouts, and walk rate, finishing second in WHIP and strikeouts, and third in ERA.

This second Cy Young award puts Halladay in a select group of pitchers. Only two pitchers with multiple Cy Young awards have been eligible for the Hall of Fame and failed to gain entry, and with three 20 win seasons, a perfect game, and a playoff no-hitter, Halladay looks like a near lock.

At 33 years old, Halladay is among the leagues best pitchers, and seems to have a lot left in the tank. This past year was arguably Hallday’s best, and over the past four years he has finished third, fifth, second, and fifth in Cy Young voting. Only time will tell if he can repeat this incredible season, but I wouldn’t bet against him.

It’s probably fair to say Cliff Lee struggled down the stretch in 2010. While his bloated ERA and sub-.500 winning percentage with Texas were certainly not all his fault, his Cy Young season quickly evaporated in the Texas heat after a mid-season trade landed him in Arlington. Yet here we are in [...]]]>

This guy won someone their league in 2008

It’s probably fair to say Cliff Lee struggled down the stretch in 2010. While his bloated ERA and sub-.500 winning percentage with Texas were certainly not all his fault, his Cy Young season quickly evaporated in the Texas heat after a mid-season trade landed him in Arlington. Yet here we are in October, and Cliff Lee is again dominating hitters like few in post-season history.

Tuesday night, for the fourth time in seven October starts, Cliff Lee went 7+ innings, struck out 10+ batters, and didn’t surrender a walk. In the 2,545 post-season games not started by Cliff Lee, this has occurred exactly three times. Translation: Cliff Lee is a pretty good pitcher.

Assuming Lee’s dominance continues – and remembering how much a good playoff run can pad a contract – Lee is likely looking at a massive deal this winter. The obvious candidate for Lee’s services is the New York Yankees, and with Texas’ new TV contract, they too might have a shot.

But if Lee can secure an offer remotely close to what he’d be getting in New York or Arlington with a National League team, should Lee think twice? Maybe.

Continue at BleacherReport.com.

Not since 1967 has anyone led either Major League in home runs, RBI, and batting average. [...]]]> For the first time in many years, we have a Triple Crown race in Major League Baseball. Not one, but two players are within striking distance of one of the most elusive achievements in all of sports.

Albert Pujols could become the first player since 1937 to win the NL Triple Crown.

Not since 1967 has anyone led either Major League in home runs, RBI, and batting average. Not since 1937 has a player done so in the National League. Yet with August winding down and the divisional races heating up, Albert Pujols ranks first in home runs and RBI, third in batting average, just six points behind leader Joey Votto, who also ranks second in home runs, just three back of Pujols, and second in RBI, again, only three behind Pujols.

For Votto, this is a career year. At just 26, he has plenty of time left to show that 2010 was not a fluke, and that he belongs among the games elite. But as good as he was the past couple of years, he’s really put things together this season and should he win the Triple Crown it would simply top off a breakthrough season for the Red slugger.

On the flip side, there is no doubt that Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball. He’s had many great season before, and should he pull off the Triple Crown, he’s all but guaranteed to become the second player in baseball history with four MVP awards. He’d also become the second player in baseball history to win three such awards in a row, following only Barry Bonds in both instances. But what’s so incredible about this season, and about Pujols, is that 2010 might just be a bellow average year by Phat Albert’s standards.

Let’s take a step back, and look at Pujols’ numbers as they appeared on July 31st, less than a month ago. Albert was hitting .299 on the season with a .399 OBP, a .551 SLG, and an OPS of .950. This would certainly be considered a great season for just about anyone. But for Pujols, a .950 OPS would represent a career low, as would the .299 batting average, 15 points lower than in any season of his career, and the .551 SLG, 11 points lower than in any season of his career. With two months to go in the season, Albert had just 23 home runs.

The Machine flipped a switch in August, and is no longer in danger of having one of his worst seasons. Over the past month, he’s hit .411 with 11 home runs, 22 RBI, and a 1.336 OPS. For the first time since April, Pujols batted over .300 for a month. It was also the first time since April his monthly OPS topped .950. One big month has taken Pujols from a career-low year to the strongest Triple Crown candidate we’ve had in decades.

But what about his numbers as of today? Pujols is hitting .320 with 35 home runs and an OPS of 1.022. He leads his league in hits, runs, home runs, RBI, and SLG, he’s second in  OBP and OPS, third in SLG. A great season by any measure, sure. But one of his best? Hardly. This is Pujols 10th season in the Major Leagues. His 1.022 OPS would rank seventh best in his career, his second worst OPS since 2002, his worst over that stretch coming in an injury plagued 2007. His 172 OPS+ would be tied for fifth best in his career.

His 2010 OBP and 2010 SLG both rank as the third worst of his career, his OBP at it’s lowest level since 2002. His average is the second worst of his career, only six points above his career-low .314 in 2002. 2010 is also shaping up to be a middle of the pack year for Pujols in the power department. He’s on pace right now to end up in the low-40s in home runs. Not really a down year for the Cardinals slugger, but certainly not-off the charts.

This has been an incredible season to be a baseball fan. We’ve seen five (six) no-hitters, two (three) perfect games, and cast of rookies that’s unmatched in recent memory. But this is something truly unique. We have a player so incredibly talented that, in a year that arguably ranks as bellow average for his career, he has a chance to win the first batting Triple Crown in more than four decades, the first in his league in more than 70 years.

Romero, the teams first round pick in 2005, has a 3.53 ERA and 3.40 FIP on the season. Not much of a strikeout [...]]]> The Blue Jays on Saturday signed 25-year-old former top-10 pick Ricky Romero to a five year, $30.1 million contract that will keep him signed with the team through 2015.

Romero, the teams first round pick in 2005, has a 3.53 ERA and 3.40 FIP on the season. Not much of a strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues, he’s really refined his stuff in the Majors, and thus far has a 7.76 strikeout rate on the season. He’s also a groundball pitcher (54% GB-rate both this year and last) and while his control is still a bit shaky, it’s improved over the past year and is currently no worse than average. Overall, he’s got a great skill set and at just 25 he still has room to grow by improving his command, and becoming the ace the Blue Jays hoped he could be when they selected him sixth overall.

Let’s break the deal down.

Right off the bat, the Jays will be giving Romero a $1.25 million signing bonus. In 2011, Romero will make $750K, a few thousand more than he would have had he not signed the deal, but nothing major. This is his final pre-arbitration year, and the Jays aren’t paying much for it.

Had Romero not signed this deal, he would have gone through arbitration in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Now, the Blue Jays have him under control and will pay him an average of $6.7 million over the three year stretch. Even if Romero simply continues to pitch at the level he has, he’ll be well worth the money.

The best part about this deal from the Jays perspective is that they now control one or two of Romero’s free agent years. In 2015, Romero will be right in the middle of his prime at 30 years old. The Jays have him locked up at $7.5 million for the 2015 season, and can exercise a $13.1 million option for 2016. Should Romero get hurt, or should his performance suffer, they can buy out the 2016 season for just $600K.

Romero gets a great deal of financial security out of this deal, and while it would be nice to hit the free agent market at 29 years old, he’s now guaranteed $30+ million over the next five seasons. This is certainly a good deal from his perspective.

I also like this deal for the Blue Jays. Romero is a very talented pitcher, and he’s only getting better. If he develops into the front-line starter he seems capable of becoming, having his arbitration years control could be huge in the Blue Jays rebuilding efforts, and keeping him under contract for two prime-age free agent years is also a major plus.