Albert Pujols could become the first player since 1937 to win the NL Triple Crown.

Not since 1967 has anyone led either Major League in home runs, RBI, and batting average. Not since 1937 has a player done so in the National League. Yet with August winding down and the divisional races heating up, Albert Pujols ranks first in home runs and RBI, third in batting average, just six points behind leader Joey Votto, who also ranks second in home runs, just three back of Pujols, and second in RBI, again, only three behind Pujols.

For Votto, this is a career year. At just 26, he has plenty of time left to show that 2010 was not a fluke, and that he belongs among the games elite. But as good as he was the past couple of years, he’s really put things together this season and should he win the Triple Crown it would simply top off a breakthrough season for the Red slugger.

On the flip side, there is no doubt that Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball. He’s had many great season before, and should he pull off the Triple Crown, he’s all but guaranteed to become the second player in baseball history with four MVP awards. He’d also become the second player in baseball history to win three such awards in a row, following only Barry Bonds in both instances. But what’s so incredible about this season, and about Pujols, is that 2010 might just be a bellow average year by Phat Albert’s standards.

Let’s take a step back, and look at Pujols’ numbers as they appeared on July 31st, less than a month ago. Albert was hitting .299 on the season with a .399 OBP, a .551 SLG, and an OPS of .950. This would certainly be considered a great season for just about anyone. But for Pujols, a .950 OPS would represent a career low, as would the .299 batting average, 15 points lower than in any season of his career, and the .551 SLG, 11 points lower than in any season of his career. With two months to go in the season, Albert had just 23 home runs.

The Machine flipped a switch in August, and is no longer in danger of having one of his worst seasons. Over the past month, he’s hit .411 with 11 home runs, 22 RBI, and a 1.336 OPS. For the first time since April, Pujols batted over .300 for a month. It was also the first time since April his monthly OPS topped .950. One big month has taken Pujols from a career-low year to the strongest Triple Crown candidate we’ve had in decades.

But what about his numbers as of today? Pujols is hitting .320 with 35 home runs and an OPS of 1.022. He leads his league in hits, runs, home runs, RBI, and SLG, he’s second in  OBP and OPS, third in SLG. A great season by any measure, sure. But one of his best? Hardly. This is Pujols 10th season in the Major Leagues. His 1.022 OPS would rank seventh best in his career, his second worst OPS since 2002, his worst over that stretch coming in an injury plagued 2007. His 172 OPS+ would be tied for fifth best in his career.

His 2010 OBP and 2010 SLG both rank as the third worst of his career, his OBP at it’s lowest level since 2002. His average is the second worst of his career, only six points above his career-low .314 in 2002. 2010 is also shaping up to be a middle of the pack year for Pujols in the power department. He’s on pace right now to end up in the low-40s in home runs. Not really a down year for the Cardinals slugger, but certainly not-off the charts.

This has been an incredible season to be a baseball fan. We’ve seen five (six) no-hitters, two (three) perfect games, and cast of rookies that’s unmatched in recent memory. But this is something truly unique. We have a player so incredibly talented that, in a year that arguably ranks as bellow average for his career, he has a chance to win the first batting Triple Crown in more than four decades, the first in his league in more than 70 years.

Strasburg is 6-1, with a 0.99 ERA at AA and AAA.

Strasburg, who was undoubtedly baseball’s best pitcher during the first month of his career, finishes a shortened rookie season 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 92 strikeouts to just 17 walks in 68 innings pitched.

This situation is eerily reminiscent of Francisco Liriano’s 2006 season. The Twins ace exploded onto the scene in ’06, and looked like a Cy Young contender at mid-season. After a month-long stint on the DL, Liriano made two starts, one in late August, the next in early September, before landing back on the DL and eventually undergoing Tommy John Surgery.

This is without a doubt bad news. But it is important to remember that Liriano has been one of baseball’s best pitchers this year. The same can be said for fellow TJS recipient Josh Johnson. While the road to recovery is long, and Strasburg may not be himself right away, the surgery now has a very high success rate. This isn’t going to end Strasburg’s career, and he should be back to 100% within two years. While his questionable mechanics and electric stuff could lead to further injury in the future, we’ve seen plenty of pitchers return from TJS and stay healthy long term.

As difficult a situation is TJS is, there is a silver lining here. This injury gives the Nationals another year to become a competitive organization. The service time clock has stopped ticking for now, and the Nationals will control their phenom for an additional year before he reaches free agency. This not only gives the Nationals a bigger window of competition with Strasburg, but also increases his future trade value should the team not become competitive in the next 3-4 years.

Stephen Strasburg might be the most talented pitcher in the game, and as a baseball fan, I want to see the guy pitch. Thankfully, this is unlikely to be the end of his career, or the end of his dominance, and Nationals fans can take solace in the fact that there team now has another year to become a competitor in the National League East and win with Stephen Strasburg as their ace.

Cliff Lee won the 2008 AL Cy Young. Can he do it again?

A year ago today, we would not be having this conversation. Zack Greinke, who ran away with the award in April and May, was still as sharp as ever late in the season and while there was some concern that his lack of wins would cost him votes, it seemed ridiculous to suggest anyone else would win. Greinke was having a legendary season. His ERA of 2.16 was 105% better than the league average, giving him an ERA+ of 205, one of the highest figures in the games history. He was striking out well over a batter per inning, rarely walking anyone, and surrendering a league-leading 0.4 home runs per nine innings.

The 2010 race is as murky as the 2009 race was clear. We don’t have a Greinke. But someone will win the award, that much we know. Who will it be? Let’s look at a few of the leading contenders.

Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill

Why they could win:

If the vote were held today, Buchholz would likely get some serious consideration. Buchholz is second in the league in wins, with a 15-5 record. He also leads the American League in ERA, with a 2.26 mark. His 194 ERA+ is almost Greinke-esque. Similarly, Cahill is 14-5 with the second best ERA in the American League, 2.43. He’s also a young, hard throwing righty who was once a highly-touted prospect and struggled initially in the big leagues only to break out this season.

Why they might not:

The biggest problem facing both Buchholz is his severe lack of innings pitched. Buchholz missed a month in the middle of the season, and right now stands at 139 1/3 innings pitched. Cahill didn’t make his first start of the season until April 30th, and (in one more start than Buchholz) has thrown 155 2/3 innings this season. Not quite as big of a deal, but still something to consider.

As good as their statistics appear, both have been aided by some great luck and tremendous defensive play. Buchholz’s .265 BABIP is 38 points bellow the league average, despite a high percentage of groundballs. He’s also stranded nearly 80% of baserunners this season. If he were Randy Johnson, that figure might not be shocking. But he’s struck out only 96 batters this season, less than 6.5 per nine innings. Coupled wit his still developing control, Buchholz seems more lucky than good. Cahill’s case is even more extreme, with a .217 BABIP, by far the lowest in the league, coupled with a strikeout rate well under six per nine.

The verdict:

I don’t think either of these pitchers should win the award. While they have both had nice seasons, it’s clear to me that neither has been the best pitcher in the American League, and that their low ERAs and strong W-L records have a lot too do with good luck, and strong defensive play.

As to whether they will win, I think their lack of innings and low strikeout numbers will really hurt their cases in the eyes of some voters. If one of them has a strong stretch run, wins a few more games, and runs away with the ERA title, they could grab the award. But at the moment, I think they are long shots.

David Price

Why he could win:

A couple of months ago, David Price seemed to be running away with the Cy Young award, leading the American League in wins and ERA at one point, and starting the All-Star game in July. But, as with Ubaldo Jimenez in the National League, Price’s low BABIP has regressed just a bit and his ERA has come back to the pack.

Price still has a very nice ERA (2.97) and W-L record (15-5). His innings pitched total is also low, but not quite as low as Buchholz. Unlike the two pitchers previously discussed, Price has been healthy all season.

Why he might not:

Like with Cahill, Price’s innings count might not prevent him from winning the award, but it certainly wont help. He’s made a couple fewer starts than most of the contenders, and has only averaged a little over six innings a start. His still shaky control obviously hasn’t helped.

Price is another candidate the stat geeks wont love. His strikeout numbers are good, but his control has been lackluster, and if not for a very fortunate HR/FB rate, his flyball tendency would likely have hurt just a bit.

The verdict:

He’s been at the forefront of this discussion all season, and his surface stats are very good, but he no longer leads the league in ERA or wins, and any voter who is at all sabermetrically inclined will be hesitant to cast their vote for a guy with a K/BB rate of just 2.25. He has a chance, like Cahill and Buchholz, but shouldn’t and most likely wont win the award in the end.

Felix Hernandez

Why he could win:

Of all the pitchers listed here, Felix has the most balanced case. His surface stats indicate a durable ace. He leads the league in innings pitched and strikeouts, and also has the third best ERA in the AL, behind Cahill and Buchholz.

While Felix might not be the sabermetric favorite, he does rank third in the American League in FIP and second in expected FIP. He’s also third in the American League in pitching wins above replacement.

Hernandez has a 10-10 record, bu he also pitches for among the worst teams in baseball and voters have shown in the past (Greinke, Lincecum) that they can overlook a mediocre W-L when a pitchers true production indicates he’s worthy of recognition.

Why he might not:

The 10-10 record is going to be difficult to overcome.The more enlightened voters may overlook it, but those voters may also flock to his former teammate who will be discussed latter on. Felix has a well rounded case, but I doubt, as of now, that many consider him the best choice.

The verdict:

If he leads the league in ERA, innings, and strikeouts, he’s got a very good shot, even with the poor W-L record. As to whether he deserves to win, that’s a tough question. He’d probably be my second or third choice.

CC Sabathia

Why he could win:

It seems like just yesterday CC Sabathia had an ERA over four and Yankees fans were nearing a revolt. Yet his ERA for the months of June, July, and August have been under 2.50, and he’s 13-2 over his last 16 starts.

We’ve seen before how important win totals are to voters, and CC leads the way with 17 on the season. He has a legitimate shot to reach 20 wins, which would likely make him the only 20-game winner in the American League this season.

He pitches for the highest profile team in baseball, which always helps, and his ERA of 3.02 puts him right there with David Price, and given his tendency to improve as the season progresses, he could finish in the mid to high 2′s.

Why he might not:

While his ERA and W-L record are impressive, his K/BB rate has declined for the third straight season, and he clearly isn’t the pitcher he once was. He’s been quite fortunate this season to end up with the ERA and W-L record he has, and if that luck runs out down the stretch, he could fall short of 20 wins and see his ERA rise.

The verdict:

I don’t think CC has been the best pitcher in baseball this season, and I don’t think he deserves the award. However, if he finishes with an ERA in the mid to high 2′s, and wins 20 games, I think he’ll be the favorite come November. At the end of the day, I think he’ll win the award.

Cliff Lee

Why he could win:

To put it simply, because he deserves to win. Cliff Lee has been the best pitcher in the American League this season, and despite some inconsistent results with Texas, there’s no doubt in my mind that he deserves to win the award.

His 10-7 record doesn’t help his case, but his 3.09 ERA puts him near the top of the league, and his 0.98 WHIP is the best in the AL. Cliff also leads the American League in FIP, with a 2.55 mark, is third in xFIP, and leads by a large margin in K/BB rate. His 13.73 ratio would shatter the all-time record among ERA qualifiers.

Despite missing the first month of the season, Lee should finish easily above 200 innings pitched. He also leads American League pitchers in wins above replacement, despite making fewer starts than Buchholz and Cahill.

Why he might not:

He has a pedestrian record, and his ERA has risen to the point that he no longer has a shot to lead the league in that category. Many voters wont pay attention to his K/BB rate, even should he break the all-time record.

The verdict:

If you haven’t figured it out yet, I think Cliff should win the award. He pitches eight innings a start, and strikes out more than 13 times as many batters as he walks.

If he does break the K/BB record, and I think he will, that might factor into things just a bit. It should get him some good publicity. There is going to be some support for Lee, and while I think Sabathia will pull this out in the end, Lee has a shot.

A few other contenders…

Francisco Liriano might get some support in the sabermetric community. He leads the American League in both FIP and xFIP and has the second best WAR. I’d place him second or third on my ballot, but his mid-3s ERA and poor record will likely take him out of contention.

CJ Wilson, like Price and Sabathia, has a good record and an ERA around 3.00. He’s unlikely to win the award, but will capture some votes.

Jon Lester and Jered Weaver have also had very good seasons, but their ERA and W-L records, while solid, likely aren’t good enough to garner serious first place consideration from voters.

Romero, the teams first round pick in 2005, has a 3.53 ERA and 3.40 FIP on the season. Not much of a strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues, he’s really refined his stuff in the Majors, and thus far has a 7.76 strikeout rate on the season. He’s also a groundball pitcher (54% GB-rate both this year and last) and while his control is still a bit shaky, it’s improved over the past year and is currently no worse than average. Overall, he’s got a great skill set and at just 25 he still has room to grow by improving his command, and becoming the ace the Blue Jays hoped he could be when they selected him sixth overall.

Let’s break the deal down.

Right off the bat, the Jays will be giving Romero a $1.25 million signing bonus. In 2011, Romero will make $750K, a few thousand more than he would have had he not signed the deal, but nothing major. This is his final pre-arbitration year, and the Jays aren’t paying much for it.

Had Romero not signed this deal, he would have gone through arbitration in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Now, the Blue Jays have him under control and will pay him an average of $6.7 million over the three year stretch. Even if Romero simply continues to pitch at the level he has, he’ll be well worth the money.

The best part about this deal from the Jays perspective is that they now control one or two of Romero’s free agent years. In 2015, Romero will be right in the middle of his prime at 30 years old. The Jays have him locked up at $7.5 million for the 2015 season, and can exercise a $13.1 million option for 2016. Should Romero get hurt, or should his performance suffer, they can buy out the 2016 season for just $600K.

Romero gets a great deal of financial security out of this deal, and while it would be nice to hit the free agent market at 29 years old, he’s now guaranteed $30+ million over the next five seasons. This is certainly a good deal from his perspective.

I also like this deal for the Blue Jays. Romero is a very talented pitcher, and he’s only getting better. If he develops into the front-line starter he seems capable of becoming, having his arbitration years control could be huge in the Blue Jays rebuilding efforts, and keeping him under contract for two prime-age free agent years is also a major plus.

By this point last season, Albert Pujols had already pulled away from the pack. He was hitting .328 with 26 home runs, and an OPS of 1.159. On June 23rd, 2009, it was fairly clear who the National League MVP had been over the first few months of the season. But this year? No National League batters has hit 20 or more home runs. None have an OPS over 1.000. Albert Pujols is hitting “just” .302 with “only” 15 home runs. Hanley Ramirez is having a down year. So is Chase Utley. And so is Prince Fielder.

Andre Ethier looked like the clear cut favorite early in the season, but his offense has tailed off and his defense has been beyond terrible. Jason Heyward had a case entering the month, with an OPS near 1.000 on a first place team, but he too has been in quite a slump. Albert Pujols was near the league lead in several offensive categories a few weeks ago, but he’s hit just three home runs in the month of June.

Who does that leave in contention?

Let’s start with the first place Braves, and current NL batting average leader Martin Prado. Prado is the only National Leaguer among the top-10 in the league in batting average, hitting .340 to date. But Prado rarely walks and has little power. Prado is a good hitter and a solid defensive third baseman, but his overall offensive package just isn’t enough.

What about Andre Ethier? He’s dropped off just a bit, but he’s still hitting .320. He hasn’t walked quite all that much, but his SLG% of .583 leads the National League, and his .965 OPS is second. The problem with Ethier, as it has always been, is defense. He’s one of the worst right fielders in baseball. So far this season, he’s cost his team nearly 14 runs in the field according to UZR. Over his career, he’s lost his team more than 30 runs in right field, so this is nothing new. As great a hitter as he’s been, his poor defense has to be taken into consideration.

Marlon Byrd is hitting .323 on the season with a .521 slugging and a UZR over seven. But his lack of walks (his OBP is just .366) make him a less valuable player than his average and slugging would indicate. Another National League Central outfielder might have a better case – Matt Holliday. Holliday has had an incredible June. He’s hitting .308, but hasn’t walked as frequently as in previous seasons, and has only 11 home runs. He’s a solid candidate, and the way he’s playing, he could put himself into contention sooner rather than latter. But right now, Holliday probably doesn’t deserve to win the award.

Joey Votto is certainly a reasonable candidate. The Reds are in first place, due in large part to Votto’s contributions with the bat. Votto is hitting .310 with a .405 OBP and 15 home runs. He has an impressive .962 OPS, and might be the favorite to win the award if it were not for another first baseman on a first place team. That man is Adrian Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is, in my mind, the most underrated player in baseball. He’s probably the second best first baseman in the league, but is often over looked, partly because he plays in San Diego, and partly.. well because he plays his home games in San Diego. Last season, his OPS was nearly 200 points higher on the road. At home, he hit just .244 at home. 28 of his 40 home runs came on the road.

So with that in mind, consider the fact that Gonzalez now leads the league in OPS. So far this season, Gonzalez is hitting .313 with a .411 OBP and a .559 SLG, to go along with 15 home runs and 47 RBI. His home/road splits are astounding. On the road, Gonzalez is a .353 hitter with a .664 SLG. Again, his OPS is nearly 200 points higher outside of Petco. Gonzalez is also one of the best defensive first baseman in the league, and has one the last two National League Gold Glove Awards at first base. The Padres are in first place mostly due to outstanding pitching and defense, but Gonzalez’s offensive contribution has been extremely valuable for a team that plays half their games in offensive hell.

If the season were to end today, I have no idea who would win the National League MVP award. But I have a pretty good idea who would be deserving of that honor. That would be baseball’s most underrated player, Adrian Gonzalez.

Ubaldo is certainly one of the best pitchers in the league, and he has been for quite some time. No one wanted to pay attention until now. In 2008, Ublado threw 198.2 innings. His ERA was 3.99, and his FIP was 3.83. His control was a major issue, as he walked 4.7/9. But he had great stuff, could strike batters out, and could keep the ball on the ground. He took his next leap forward last season, surpassing 200 innings for the first time in his career. His walk rate dropped to 3.5, and his ERA to 3.47. He had a 3.36 FIP, and a 3.63 xFIP.

What has changed for Ubaldo since last season? His strikeout rate is down, but only slightly, and it’s still at a high level. His walk rate is also down bellow three, to 2.91. His groundball rate is up just a bit, over 54%. Ubaldo is probably the hardest thrower among baseballs starting pitchers (at least until Stephen Strasburg starts on June 8th) and the movement he gets on that pitch allows him to keep the ball on the ground, and post lower than normal HR/FB rates. But his improved control has seemingly allowed him to take the next step.

The HR/FB rate is an issue. His HR/FB rate, at the moment, stands at 1.6%. The league average is around 10, and most pitchers are in that general vicinity. I’m willing to believe Ubaldo, because of his tremendous stuff, can sustain a bellow league average HR/FB rate, as he’s done the past two seasons. His xFIP, which is around 3.50, is probably not an accurate indication of his ability. But 1.6% is simply unsustainable. He’s given up a single home run this season, and if his HR/FB rate were at the league average, he’d have given up about 7-8. In all likelihood, if we throw luck out the window, Ubaldo would be somewhere in 3-5 home run range on the year.

Jimenez is not 0.78 ERA good. No one is, no one has ever been. The lowest ERA in baseball since 2000 was the 1.74 that Pedro put up in 2000. Compare Ubaldo this year to Pedro that year. Ubaldo has a 7.84 K/9, Pedro had an 11.8 K/9. Ubaldo has a 2.91 BB/9, Pedro was at 1.2. Ubaldo has pitched very well, but he’s not having a historic season like Pedro in 2000, or Randy Johnson earlier this decade. He’s not pitching as well as Johan Santana did in his prime, and he’s probably not even pitching as well as Zack Grienke was through two months last season. Like Greinke, he will likely finish the year with an ERA in the low 2′s.

The real question is whether Ubaldo has been the best pitcher in baseball so far this season. Ubaldo leads the league in ERA and wins, but let’s look a bit further than that. He has a 2.62 FIP, which ranks third in baseball, behind Roy Halladay and Francisco Liriano. Why is it so much higher than his ERA? Ubaldo’s BABIP stands at .223, a completely unsustainable level. He’s also stranding 92.4% of baserunners. The league averages for those two numbers are around .300, and 70%. Ubaldo should have a slightly higher strand rate, because he’s a better pitcher than the league average. He’ll pitch better without guys on base, and he’ll pitch better with guys on base. The BABIP is also going to regress, and regress quite a bit. Ubaldo has had a slightly bellow average BABIP for most of his career, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see it around .280-.290. A .280 BABIP, to me, would show he was getting a bit lucky. But a guy with his kind of stuff could, potentially, be one of the exceptions. So far over his career, he’s shown that to be the case. His BABIP wont stay in the .220s, but a .285 BABIP wouldn’t be shocking. Bottom line, Ubaldo’s been lucky, but his FIP and xFIP don’t tell the whole story.

Jimenez has no doubt been among the best pitchers in baseball this season. I don’t think his 3.51 xFIP is a fair picture of his ability – I think he’s closer to his 2.62 FIP. He’s going to have a great year, and if he finishes the season with an ERA in the low-2s, and wins the Cy Young award, I wont complain. But I think Roy Halladay has been better. I think Hallady will be better going forward, and the two will finish the year with comparable across numbers in the W-L and ERA columns. I see Ubaldo as a 2.5-3.0 ERA pitcher the rest of the way, finishing the year just a bit behind where Zack Greinke was in 2009.

Jimenez has been great this season. No, he’s not baseball’s best pitcher. That would be either Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum. No, he probably hasn’t been baseball’s best so far. Halladay has pitched better in my opinion, and Ubaldo’s ERA is deflated by a fortunate HR/FB rate and BABIP. But it’s been fun to watch one of the best pitchers in baseball start of the season in historic fashion, and it will be fun to see where he ends the season.

Of course, we all know who’s leading the Majors in what. Ubaldo Jimenez has an ERA under 1 and an 8-1 record. Justin Morneau leads the AL in batting, and has chipped in 11 home runs. Andre Ethier, if healthy, would be competing for a triple crown. I don’t have to tell you all that. But what about the minor leagues? Which players are likely ready for a promotion after destroying pitching at their level the past two months? Of course, I’m not talking about 30 year old career minor leaguers teeing off against guys 5-10  years younger than them, but real prospects. Guys who project as Major League starters.

Strasburg is 6-1, with a 0.99 ERA at AA and AAA.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals - Are you surprised? Stephen Strasburg has technically already been promoted this year, but this guy should be pitching in the Major Leagues. In 22 innings at AA Harrisburg, Strasburg struck out 27 batters, walking six. In 23.1 innings at AAA so far, he’s got 27 strikeouts and just four walks. He’s yet to give up a professional home run. Through two levels, he’s 6-1 in nine starts, with an ERA under one and WHIP of .71. 54 Ks, 10 BBs. Simply incredible numbers. Strasburg probably has better stuff than any pitcher in Major League baseball right now. He also has advanced command, and the ability to pound the bottom of the strike zone and induce groundballs. He’s the best pitching prospect in the last decade at the very least, and by the first week of June, we’ll likely see him pitching in Washington.

Carlos Santana, C, Indians – Santana started off the season on a torrid pace, slowed down a bit, then heated back up again. Through 44 games, Carlos has a .313 average, 35 BBs and just 29 Ks, 10 homers, and a 1.020 OPS. Last season he OPS’d .953 at AA, after a breakout 2008 campaign in which he hit .326 with a .999 OPS through two levels and two organizations. Santana entered this season as a borderline top-10 prospect, and has done nothing but cement his status in that elite group.The Indians aren’t very good right now, so there has been no rush to bring him to the big leagues. But with June approaching, and Santana 24 years old, there seems very little reason to keep him in AAA much longer.  I expect Santana in the Majors by the end of June.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals - Of course, we all know about Mike Moustakas. The Royals took him second overall back in 2007, a few spots ahead of Matt Wieters, and 12 spots ahead of Jason Heyward. Moustakas was hyped as a potential super star, appearing in the 2008 and 2009 BA top-100 lists, at 18 and 13 respectively. His first full season in Minor League ball was a disappointment, as he hit just .272, with a .337 OBP, and 22 homers. But he was just 19 years old. Last season, as a 20 year old in A+, Moustakas continued to struggle. He hist just 16 homers, and his average dropped to .250. He got on base under 30% of the time. So coming into this season, expectations were not too high. He had dropped considerably on prospects lists, and was BA’s fourth highest rated Royals prospect. Fourth. He was no longer considered a future Major League star. Well, it seems like Moustakas has finally hit the switch. Through 27 games in the AA Texas League, Moustakas leads the league in hitting with a .390 average. He’s struck out 18 times, and walked 17, a major improvement over the past couple of years. He also leads the league with 12 homers and 41 RBI. Coming into the season, Baseball America described him as a guy with two plus tools, his raw power and his strong arm at third, to go along with a solid swing, good bat speed, and good hand-eye coordination. The issue was approach. He was too aggressive, and too pull happy; he just couldn’t hit yet. So far, so good for Moustakas. Given his struggles the past couple of seasons, his young age, and the hitter-friendly environment of the Texas League, Moustakas probably wont be promoted anytime soon. He’s finally showing some promise and a Royals team that’s not going anywhere can afford to let him build his confidence, and develop as a player. But expect him in AAA by the end of the season, in the big leagues some time in 2011.

Dom Brown, RF, Phillies - I’ve always been just a bit skeptical of Dom Brown. He’s the one guy the Phillies wouldn’t trade for Roy Halladay. To me, this didn’t make much sense. Brown has always had raw tools, but has yet to show them on the field. He’s uber-talented, but so is Michael Taylor. So is Kyle Drabek. Why hang onto the guy who seems least likely to succeed? So far this season, Brown is proving me wrong. The 22 year old has started off 2010 in the AA Eastern League. Through 38 games, Brown is hitting .320, with an OPS over 1.000. He also has 7 steals, and 8 home runs, having hit just 14 all of last season. This is a level he’s repeating, after having played 37 games in the Eastern League to end 2009, but his OPS is about 200 points higher then it wast last season. Unlike Kansas City, the Phillies are actually going somewhere this season. However, their outfield is pretty crowded right now. Brown should be in AAA soon, and if Raul Ibanez isn’t hitting in July, he could be their starting left fielder down the stretch.

Mike Stanton, RF, Florida Marlins - Mike Stanton is an incredibly gifted young player. At 18 years old, he hit 39 homers in 2008, batting .293. Last year, he hit just .255 as his contact issues caught up to him, yet still managed 28 homers and 92 RBI. This season though, Stanton is taking his play to another level. In 41 games to start the season, Stanton has hit .318 with a .458 OBP. His strikeouts are down from last season – 43 in a 154 at bats – though still a bit high. Still, he’s walked almost as often (36 times), and at the same time, put on a show with his power. His 17 home runs leads all of professional baseball, and he’s also got 11 doubles and a triple. The Marlins are currently just three games out of first in the NL East, and Stanton may be able to help them down the stretch. He’s just 20 years old, and I still have some concerns about his ability to make contact. But he’s just so good, I could see him paying in the Majors before the season is over, especially if the Marlins stay in the race.

Translations: It’s time to make a move. When you’re team’s in first place, fantasy baseball isn’t easy. You’re the target. Everyone is trying to pass you. When you’re in the middle of the pack, it’s impossibly frustrating. Today, you’re team hits 5 homers, Homer Bailey pitches a CGSO, and you move into a tie for fifth. Tomorrow, you’re team hits .170, you blow a couple of saves, and you’re back in ninth. You can’t control how your players perform, but you can control one thing; your roster.

We’re a fourth of the way into the season. We’re at a point where owners have made up their minds on a great deal of their players. Justin Morneau is an MVP, Alex Rodriguez is finished, and so on. But it’s still only six weeks. There’s still a lot of baseball left to play. And it’s at this time that championship caliber teams need to make a move. They need to exploit league perception.

So who do you target? Well, here are a few names:

Harang should see his ERA improve in the near future.

Aaron Harang - I’m an Aaron Harang owner. A very, very frustrated owner. The truth is, Aaron Harang has been terrible so far this season, from a fantasy perspective, with a 6.02 ERA to go along with his 2-5 record. But he’s not pitching poorly. Through 46.1 innings, Harang has 41 Ks to only 10 BBs. He’s been the victim of a horrible BABIP (.358) and HR/FB rate (18.4%) that are going to return to normal levels. Now’s the time to buy.

Raul Ibanez – Another player I own, another frustrating start to the season. But there’s hope. He’s currently striking out at a lower rate than he did last season, and walking at a higher rate. He only has 3 homers, but his .175 ISO is not that far behind his Seattle numbers. The real reason for his slow start? A BABIP of .260.

Dan Haren - It’s crazy how Haren can have the second best xFIP in baseball and an ERA over 4. Acquiring him at this point is a risk, as he struggles down the stretch historically, but he’s pitching like the ace he is thus far. The ERA will come around.

Scott Baker – A 4.93 ERA makes this look like another poor start for Baker. But K/BB is now higher than it was the past two seasons. Even better, Baker’s GB% is the highest it’s been since he came into the league. If he can keep it in the high-30s, an ERA in the mid-3′s is not just possible, it’s likely.

Travis Snider - Snider is only hitting .247 with 6 homers on the season, but he’s been coming around of late. His batting eye is up 11 points from last season, due mostly to a K rate decrease from 32.4% to 25.0%. And while 6 homers may not seem like a lot, his ISO is up to .241. He’s clearly seeing the ball better,  and if he can make contact at a higher rate, we could see the Travis Snider who was ranked as one of the top prospects in baseball a year ago.

If, back in March, I told you Livan Hernandez was leading the league with a 0.00 ERA on April 20th, you’d probably have responded with something along the lines of “Yeah, who’s gonna give him a job?” The fact is, Livan has logged 16 innings, two starts, without giving up a single run. In his first stint with the Nationals/Expos, Livan was actually a pretty solid pitcher, with ERA’s of 3.20, 3.60, and 3.98 and at least 230 innings in each of his three season with the club. But in 2006, he was traded to Arizona, and his career fell apart. Since then, his ERA has gone from 4.83, to 4.93, to 6.05, to 5.44. In his prime, Hernandez was an innings eater. He threw strikes, induced a decent number of groundballs, and had at least a serviceable strikeout rate. He was pretty average, but you could do worse. Livan Hernandez is not about to have a Cliff Lee like turnaround though. For one, he’s 35 years old and he throws about 84 MPH. And even with his shiny 0.00 ERA, Hernandez has just 4 strikeouts in 16 innings, with 5 walks. His xFIP is still well over 5, and without his .180 BABIP, 100% LOB%, and 0.0 HR/FB rate, Livan would look like what he is – one of the worst pitchers in baseball. If you have Livan, trade him. Not only should we not buy into 2 good starts, they haven’t really been all that good. If you grabbed Livan (why?) see what you can get for him. Even if you aren’t selling all that high, it’s better than waiting for him to blow up, kill your ERA and WHIP, and end up without a Major League job.

Second in the league in ERA? Carlos Silva. Again, Silva was pretty good at one point. In 2005, Silva had an ERA well under 4. So was his K rate, but the fact that he walked just 9 batters in 188 1/3 innings, and kept the ball on the ground when it was in play, limited the damage of his low K rate and made him a serviceable starter. The next few years, while Silva still demonstrated solid control, it was no longer at a high enough level to balance out the fact that he couldn’t miss bats. And as his GB% slipped, he started giving up a huge number of home runs. But in 2007, a lucky HR/FB rate kept his ERA around 4, and Bill Bavasi was fooled into giving him a 4 year, $48 million contract. His luck reverted, and Silva started to suck again in 2008. In 2009, he gave up nearly a run an inning. Now if Silva can’t keep his ERA under 8 in front of the best defense in baseball, how is he going to fare in Wrigley field, in front of a pretty mediocre cubs defense? So far, so good. In 13 innings, Silva has 8 strikeouts, and has yet to walk a batter. His control is back to pre-Seattle form, and batters, who usually make contact with Silva about 90% of the time, are under 80% so far. This is a very small sample size, so take these numbers with a several hundred grains of salt. But Silva is the kind of pitcher who could be very solid if he only struck out 5-6 guys per 9 innings, something he hasn’t come close to since his days in Philadelphia as a reliever. Moving to the NL, where he can face a pitcher ever other inning might just do the trick. Furthermore, Silva, who usually throws his fastball upwards of 80% of the time, is now throwing it under 60% of the time, mixing in significantly more changeups and sliders. Let me be clear, I still wouldn’t touch this guy with a 10 foot pole and one of those suits from The Hurt Locker. He has little upside, and his downside could kill your ERA and WHIP. A contact, flyball pitcher, in a hitters park? Ouch. But if you’re desperate in an NL-Only league, I think Silva is the kind of guy that, with his new pitch selection and league, could be solid. Get you a few wins, and as many Ks as a middle reliever, while not killing you elsewhere.

Of all the pitchers on this list, Kevin Millwood was clearly the best at his best. Even going into last year, I suggested he might be a good fantasy sleeper. While he did post a very solid ERA, Millwood’s skill set took a major step down, and coming into this season, nobody wanted him. But after three starts, Millwood’s ERA is under 3. Now, it’s three starts. And “under 3″ isn’t exactly shocking.. plenty of pitchers have three quality starts in a row. What’s really surprising is his K/BB rate. Millwood always had solid control and an OK K rate, but through 18 2/3 innings, Millwood now has 20 strikeouts and just 1 walk. Those numbers jump off the page, and his xFIP stands at 2.77. Again, really small sample size. But not ignorable. After all, back in 2008, he did have a 4.02 FIP and 4.20 xFIP. He had a solid K rate, a solid BB rate, and a solid GB rate. And given his 2002-2006 skill set, it’s not impossible to imagine him as a good pitcher. Millwood’s 2009, which most see as a fluky good year, could, from a skill set stand point, simply be a fluky bad year. If you’re in an AL only league, and the Millwood owner is looking to sell high, he might be worth picking up. Don’t expect a 2.89 ERA all year, but if he posted another sub-4 ERA, struck out a decent number of batters, and had a solid WHIP, with maybe 10-15 wins, you’re looking at a very solid pitcher. And it wouldn’t shock me.

The Baltimore Orioles have placed Brian Roberts on the DL, retroactive to Friday, with a strained abdomen. Roberts has been dealing with pain from a herniated disk since the spring, an injury he aggravated sliding into second base Friday. While an MRI revealed no additional structural damage, Roberts was given his second epidural shot on Monday and is clearly in significant pain. This injury will keep Roberts out through April at the very least, and could potentially affect his ability to play, and perform at a high level for the rest of the season. If you own Roberts, you should probably look for a semi-long term solution if you can. While Julo Lugo will take most of Roberts playing time, he’s not an option in mixed leagues.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have placed their second baseman Aaron Hill on the DL as well. Hill injured his hamstring on April 5th, and while he played in the teams next game, he hasn’t been in the lineup since. Hill is eligible to return April 23rd, and there is no reason at the moment to believe he wont be able to. Hill believes he could have played through the injury, and manager Cito Gaston has said he was considering playing him yesterday. Hopefully this is just a precaution, and the injury wont linger. If much of Hill’s value was tied up in his speed, a leg injury would be of more concern, but that’s not the case. John McDonald and Mike McCoy will split time until Hill comes back. Neither are worth a pickup in any format.

Finally, Jimmy Rollins was scratched from the Phillies lineup for Monday’s home opener after straining his right calf in warmups. Rollins is scheduled for an MRI, and a DL stint is possible. As with Hill, we’re hoping this is just a minor injury, even if it does cause him to miss a couple of weeks, but right now we just don’t know.

So, who should you look at to replace these guys in mixed leagues? There aren’t many great middle infielders out there. Luis Valbuena, who was one of my favorite pre-season sleepers, is owned in just 1.6% of ESPN standard mixed leagues. While he has started off the season a bit slowly, he is plenty capable of hitting for solid average with moderate pop. Orlando Hudson is owned in just over 12% of ESPN leagues, and while he’s not great, he could give you solid production and guaranteed playing time. Skip Schumaker is another solid option. At short stop, Orlando Cabrera is owned in under 20% of leagues. He’s another not-so-great option, but should provide solid across the board production. Valbuena, Ian Desmond, and Johnny Peralta are other solid options.