Second Year Values – Pitching

On Saturday I went over some position players, coming off of their rookie season, that could provide good value as late round picks. It was a solid group, but not nearly as solid as the group of second year pitchers ready to make an impact in 2010. Tommy Hanson may get all the hype, and for good reason, but past him, there are several extremely promising young pitchers you want to watch next season.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays – Price came into last year as baseballs’ top pitching prospect, but struggled to pitch at a league average level. His minor league strikeout rate of 9.0 has yet to translate to the Major League level, and his control has always been fairly average. Price was no doubt rushed by the Rays, with barely over 100 pro innings before making his debut late in the 2008 season, so we should take his numbers with a grain of salt. Additionally, he was able to duplicate his 2008 minor league K rate in AAA last season, so in that respect, I wouldn’t be too worried. What does worry me is that Price’s groundball rate plummeted last season, from around 50% to the low-40s. Price’s slider, considered his best pitch coming out of college, was nearly 5 runs bellow replacement in 2009 at the MLB level. This is clearly the problem. Price is a mystery at this point, and if another owner wants to buy into his full potential, stay away. But if his stuff returns to pre-2009 levels, your looking at one of the best young pitchers in baseball. So he’s worth a reasonable risk.

Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics - Although he seems like a popular sleeper pick, few know exactly how good this guy is. A full season 3.33 K/BB rate and 51% GB rate, along with an xFIP of 3.61, indicate near ace-level skills. But consider this: Anderson entered last season with just 31 innings above advanced A ball. His K rate was under 6, and his K/BB rate under 2 in both April and May of last season. As he adjusted to the Majors, those numbers shot through the roof. His xFIPs in the last four months of the season: 3.61, 3.28, 3.63, 2.11. Brett Anderson is not going to become an ace, because he already is one. Given his Cy Young caliber skills, and great ballpark environment, Anderson could be one of the top starters in the American League, and a good value where he is being drafted.

Don't forget about Derek Holland.

Derek Holland, Texas Rangers – His 6.12 ERA as a rookie, as well as the ballpark he plays in, will keep Hollands price low this spring. While his xFIP of 4.38 last season was certainly not great, there is a lot to like here. Holland is a strikeout pitcher, with a career minor league strikeout rate of nearly 10. His control was almost equally as good during much of his minor league career. A 6.96 K rate, and 3.06 BB rate were both very solid, and provide a good base for any young pitcher. His performance in June and Jully was even more encouraging with an xFIP under 4 and a K rate of nearly 9. Holland still needs to induce a few more groundballs, and his K and BB rates need to move towards the levels he posted in the high minor leagues, but his 2008 numbers, coupled with solid rookie year debut make him a good deep sleeper, especially in AL only leagues.

Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs – Wells did not receive the hype of the previous 3 pitchers. At 26 years old going into last season, I don’t think anyone expected 12 wins and a 3.05 ERA. Wells isn’t that good of a pitcher, but many are dismissing him as a factor next season. A groundball pitcher with very good control, Wells needs to strike out more batters to be more than a roster filler, but his minor league numbers the past few seasons say his success is not a fluke, and there may be upside for a more solid strikeout rate.

Brad Bergesen, Baltimore Orioles - Much like Wells, and unheralded rookie pitcher with a high GB rate and a low strikeout rate. The key here for Bergesen is the 50%+ groudnballs. His control is solid, with 2.54 BB/9 last year, but his K rate of 4.74 is at a dangerously low level. If Bergesen’s price ends up having more to do with his 3.43 ERA than his name value, you might want to stay out of the bidding. His K rate is just not high enough to provide any kind of upside. But  as a $1 roster filler in an AL only league, Bergesen could provide a solid 4ish ERA, innings eater with some upside for wins.