Let’s face it, rookies can get over-hyped. Everyone was convinced Matt Wieters was going to be a star right off the bat, myself included. Same with David Price and Travis Snider (although I had my reservations about both). The fact remains that most rookies don’t provide serious fantasy production. But because of guys like Gordan Beckham and Tommy Hanson, they can get overrated. The simple fact that they haven’t failed in the Major Leagues makes them attractive options. The jump to real fantasy relevance usually doesn’t happen until a players second or third year. Here we are going to look at players who are not rookies, most of whom had substantial playing time in 2009, who are worth looking at late in your drafts, and can be obtained at good values.
Catcher – Lou Marson, Cleveland Indians - Marson is currently the favorite to start 2010 as the Indians catcher, with Carlos Santana likely headed to AAA. If he does, he’s the definition of a good #2 catcher. He makes solid contact, walks quite a bit, and has some power. He wont hurt you with the batting average, and his defense could keep him in the lineup. Not worth much of a look in mixed leagues though.
First Base – Matt Laporta, Cleveland Indians – Not really a first baseman, but no one else sticks out, and outfield has too many names. Laporta destroyed AAA pitching last season, with a 16.6% K rate, 10.7% BB rate, and .231 ISO in 93 games. He struggled a bit in limited Major League playing time, but still showed good power and average contact abilities. Assuming health and a full time role in 2010, he’s going to be a major value pick. He has an Adam Lind type skill set. There’s no reason he can’t hit .285 with 30+ home runs.
Second Base – Luis Valbuena, Cleveland Indians – Um, what the hell? Another Indian? I considered going with Chris Getz here, but I don’t think he’s nearly as “under the radar.” Valbuena should get full time at bats in 2010, and he really has a skill set worth looking at in AL only leagues. He only hit .250 last season, but his minor league track record suggests a higher-contact hitter than we’ve seen. He just turned 24, so I’d bet we see those K and BB rates start to move toward his minor league norms. He also has solid speed. While he didn’t run much last season, he stole 18 bases in 2008, 11 in 2007, and 21 in 2006. Also developing here is some serious power. In 2008, he posted an ISO of .179 in AA. After a promotion, his power vanished, but it returned at AAA to start 2009, with a .229 ISO in 22 games, and in the Major Leagues, with a .166 in 103 games. Basically, you have a young middle infielder who will get full time at bats, and could potentially help you across the board.
Third Base – Brandon Wood – Los Angeles Angels – Not sure he counts as a second year player, as much as the Angels yank him around, but he sort of applies here. Like Laporta, his AAA numbers were superb. In 99 games he hit 22 homers, with an ISO of .264. No one ever questioned the power, but the batting average should no longer be a big issue either. Wood was once one of the big strikeout guys in all of the minors, but his K rate has continued to improve, dropping from 26.3% in 2008 to just 20.7% in 2009. Wood just turned 25, and with Figgins out of the way, it’ll be hard for the Angels not to give the guy an opportunity. Tremendous upside. I want him on my team in 2010.
Shortstop – Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers - Andrus had a very solid rookie season, but there is still significant growth to be had here. The guy was 20 years old, A ball age. Basically everything he does now, he will likely improve on going forward. His K rate was at a career professional low last season, as his walks stayed relatively stable with his AA level. His power was also at an all time high, with an ISO over .100 for the first time as a pro, as well as 6 home runs. With full time at bats next season, Andrus will likely steal 40-50 bases, and as his plate discipline improves, that number could go up. His .267 batting average should improve, potentially quite a bit. And given his power growth last season, and his age, double digit homers may not be out of reach. This guys upside is through the roof, both for 2010 and beyond.
Outfield – Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rookies – Fowler struggled a bit making the jump from AA to the Majors, but the pieces are there, as is the upside. His skill set is similar to that of BJ Upton. He walks quite a bit, 12.9% of the time last year, and has very good speed, stealing 27 bases in only 433 at bats. But he also struck out more than 25% of the time. His minor league numbers indicate a more solid contact hitter, and if he can get that strikeout rate down just a bit, his .266 average should rise. The speed is real, but what about the power? It’s always been expected Fowler would hit for power as he matured, and I’d have to agree. In 2008, at AA, he posted a .181 ISO. Although he only hit 9 home runs, did hit 31 doubles and 9 triples, and his .141 ISO from last season is just about average. Fowler does a good job of distributing the flyballs, groundballs, and line drives so that he can hit for a solid average without limiting the power, and that 3.6% HR/FB rate could easily rise. A lot of upside here.
Carlos Gonzalez has Matt Kemp type upside.
Outfield – Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rookies - Fowler’s teammate, and in my opinion, the better of the two by a lot. He’s been waiting for a full time role since 2007, and could get one next season. His AAA numbers last year were off the charts, with an ISO of almost .300 and a K rate around 16%. After promotion to the Majors, Gonzalez struck out a bit more often, but still stole 16 bases, and posted an ISO over .240. The power-speed here is real, and considering he hit .330 in AAA last season, the batting average should be there soon. If you want my deepest sleeper to move into the upper echelon, top couple of round, elite territory next year, it’s Carlos Gonzalez.
Outfield – Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins – Being forgotten far too quickly, Maybin was still a top-5 prospect going into last season, and he wont turn 23 until April. Last season was a disappointment. Maybin didn’t steal bases like in years past; After 27, 30, and 25 steals the past few seasons (in under/around 400 at bats each year) he only stole 9 last season. His speed was still there though, as evident by his 10 triples, so I wouldn’t be too worried. While he struggled in the big leagues, his AAA numbers give some hope he may be turning things around with the bat. He hit .319, and his K rate dropped under 20%. He also walked 11% of the time. He again showed some solid power, although he has yet to really breakout here. Maybin was clearly rushed, but the talent that made him such a highly regarded prospect is still here.
Matt Wieters and Travis Snider were both huge prospects going into last season, and both underperformed. But they aren’t on the list above. That doesn’t mean I don’t think they have bright futures, and Snider isn’t being taken all that early. I just don’t think they represent huge value. Wieters is the consensus #4 catcher, and while he may very well be the 4th best catcher in fantasy baseball, he just isn’t good value there. I was never all that high on Snider in the short term. I think, long term, there is huge upside here. But for 2010, I’d keep my expectations in check.
Some other names to consider: Kyle Blanks, Chris Getz, Matt Gamel, Colby Rasmus, Jordan Schafer.
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