Top 25 Prospects: 10-6.

Now that we’ve gotten down to the top-10 prospect things are going to get really interesting. All of these guys have super star upside, and none of them have huge flaws in their game that keep them from cracking this list.

Before we get there, just want to clarify something from the last prospect post. I ranked Jenrry Mejia in the top-15, comparing him to King Felix, which has been criticized a little on various Mets blogs/message boards. I understand Mejia isn’t as advanced as Felix was at 19, this goes without saying. He’s also quite a bit smaller (although, like Felix, he’s well built). My comparison was based on Mejia’s top-notch stuff, groundball inducing ability, and ace level upside. It doesn’t mean he will be King Felix, although he certainly could be among the top 10 pitchers in baseball at SOME point, right were Felix is, putting up a similar across the board stat line.

Now, onto #10-6. Top 5 tomorrow:

10. Jeremy Helickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays – I’m a lot higher on Jeremy Hellickson than some. The scouting report here is good – good enough for him to be a front line starter – but it’s his performance during his pro career that has me so excited. He’s a bit undersized, but he has good stuff and awesome command of all his pitches. His fastball sits in the low 90s, topping out at around 94, and he has greatly improved his command with this pitch over the past year. His best pitch is his plus changeup, and he also throws a curve that should be a good punch-out pitch at the big league level. This combination of skills has allowed him to absolutely destroy the minor leagues the past two seasons, shooting up the system and passing Wade Davis as the Rays top pitching prospect in the process. His minor league numbers are outstanding. In 2008, he started the season in A+, striking out 83 and walking only 5 in 76 2/3 innings, for a FIP of 2.57. His K/BB rate stayed high in AA (5.27) but he was plagued by the long ball, and his FIP shot up. His 2009 season was just as good, if not better. Between AA and AAA, Hellickson was 9-2 in 20 starts, with a 2.45 ERA, 10.42 K rate, 2.45 BB/9, and a 2.58 FIP. I see Hellickson developing into a front line starter for the Rays, and at this point, he has absolutely nothing to prove in the minor leagues. He’ll likely start 2010 in AAA, but should be in Tampa soon enough. MLB comparison: Scott Kazmir.

9. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants – Bumgarner is a difficult guy to rank, mostly because of a big drop in velocity and K rate in the second half of last season. Bumgarner’s fastball, at it’s best, sits in the mid-90s and is one of the best pitches in all of baseball. In 2008, he struck out over 10 guys per 9 innings, with a 2.13 FIP and 1.45 ERA. But in the second half of 2009, his velocity dropped to the high-80s, and his K rate plummeted to the mid-6s at AA. Aside from that fastball, Bumgarner also has a plus slider and solid change-up, but both pitches still need work. Even with the drop in velocity, Bumgarner pitched well as one of the youngest players in the AA Eastern League, with a 1.93 ERA and 3.56 FIP. Bumgarner started ‘09 in A+, and eventually skipped AAA to make his MLB debut late in the season. In 10 innings, he struck out 10 batters, walked 3, and posted a 58% GB rate and a 1.8 ERA. That GB% is nice, although likely not sustainable given his minor league levels. If Bumgarner can reclaim his lost velocity, the sky’s the limit, and with that command he could dominate right away in the big leagues. But the loss of velocity drops him in the rankings just a bit. MLB comparison: Josh Johnson.

8. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates - My favorite prospect in the 2008 MLB draft, Alvarez had a bit of a rough start to the 2009 season, but ended it on a great note. To start the season, in advanced A ball, Alvarez was certainly solid, but not the amazing prospect many of us were looking for. His .247 batting average was low, even considering his 28.8% K rate. The power was still there, with 14 homers and a .239 ISO, but his lack of contact, and even worse, 8% line drive rate were hurting his value. With a promotion to AA came more line drives. Way more line drives. His BABIP jumped over .400, and he hit .333 with a .444 wOBA. Alvarez is another slugger with light tower power. The main concern here is his strikeouts – 129 last season. That said, his K rate improved drastically throughout the season, from around 30% early in the year, to the low 20s in August. Alvarez does walk quite a bit, with a BB% over 13 in ‘09, and his power, along with the line drive stroke he showed late in the season, should keep his batting average solid. Alvarez’s defense was a topic of much debate going into the draft, with some calling him a very good third baseman, and others saying he would end up at first. His TotalZone in ‘09 came out at a dead even 0 runs, so maybe he can stay at third base, but either way, it’s hard to doubt his bat. MLB comparison: Prince Fielder.

Matusz, Baltimore's future ace.

7. Brian Matusz, RHP, Baltimore Oiroles – Matusz shot through Baltimore’s system in his first pro season, finishing the year in the Major Leagues. The top pitcher taken in the 2008 MLB draft, his combination of pure stuff, control, and intelligence will make him a top of the rotation workhorse at the big league level. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90s, with a changeup sitting in the low 80s, and a slider and curveball that both have plus potential. In A+ and AA last season, he posted a 9.5 K rate and 2.5 BB rate, as well as a 3.02 FIP. While he struggled with the long ball at the big league level, this wasn’t an issue in the minor leagues, with a near 50% groundball rate and a less than .6 HR/9. Matusz should start 2010 back in the big league rotation. His combination of upside and polish make him a special prospect. MLB comparison: Cole Hamels.

6. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants - Many people thought the Rays would be stupid to take Posey with the top pick in the 2008 draft, and while GM Andrew Friedman preferred the Florida State catcher, Tampa ended up taking shortstop Tim Beckham. Big mistake. Posey proved his 2008 Golden Spikes season to be anything but a fluke, hitting .325 with a .947 OPS on the season and 18 home runs in 422 at bats. Posey has a great all around skill set. A former shortstop, his athleticism is top-notch for a catcher, and he even stole 6 bases in 2009. His defense behind the plate isn’t perfect, but given his relatively short time at the position, he’s doing quite well, and his arm is terrific. Posey’s bat will make him an all-star, as he should be a perennial .300 hitter in the big leagues. In sharp contrast to most of the Giants major league roster, Posey is a very disciplined hitter, who walked almost as much as he struck out in his first pro-season. His power numbers look even more impressive when you realize he hit the ball into the dirt more than half the time in 2009. If he can learn to loft the ball a bit more, he could be a 25-30 home run hitter. Posey made it all the way to the majors in his first full pro season, and while he may not start ‘10 in the Giants lineup, it wont be too long. The only thing he needs to do is keep working on his defense, because at this point, his bat is ready for the big leagues. MLB comparison: Brian McCann.