Time To Make a Move

It’s May 16th. The baseball season is nearly a fourth of the way over. And if you’re like me, the seasons hasn’t been too kind so far. I was doing fine in my AL league, until Nelson Cruz and Brett Anderson went on the DL. I lost a dozen points, and now I’m in the middle of the pack. I was doing fine in my NFBC league, until my pitching staff came back to earth. Now I’m last in wins, in 9th place overall. I was doing great in my NL league up until this past week, a week in which I lost a ridiculous 13.5 points.

Translations: It’s time to make a move. When you’re team’s in first place, fantasy baseball isn’t easy. You’re the target. Everyone is trying to pass you. When you’re in the middle of the pack, it’s impossibly frustrating. Today, you’re team hits 5 homers, Homer Bailey pitches a CGSO, and you move into a tie for fifth. Tomorrow, you’re team hits .170, you blow a couple of saves, and you’re back in ninth. You can’t control how your players perform, but you can control one thing; your roster.

We’re a fourth of the way into the season. We’re at a point where owners have made up their minds on a great deal of their players. Justin Morneau is an MVP, Alex Rodriguez is finished, and so on. But it’s still only six weeks. There’s still a lot of baseball left to play. And it’s at this time that championship caliber teams need to make a move. They need to exploit league perception.

So who do you target? Well, here are a few names:

Harang should see his ERA improve in the near future.

Aaron Harang - I’m an Aaron Harang owner. A very, very frustrated owner. The truth is, Aaron Harang has been terrible so far this season, from a fantasy perspective, with a 6.02 ERA to go along with his 2-5 record. But he’s not pitching poorly. Through 46.1 innings, Harang has 41 Ks to only 10 BBs. He’s been the victim of a horrible BABIP (.358) and HR/FB rate (18.4%) that are going to return to normal levels. Now’s the time to buy.

Raul Ibanez – Another player I own, another frustrating start to the season. But there’s hope. He’s currently striking out at a lower rate than he did last season, and walking at a higher rate. He only has 3 homers, but his .175 ISO is not that far behind his Seattle numbers. The real reason for his slow start? A BABIP of .260.

Dan Haren - It’s crazy how Haren can have the second best xFIP in baseball and an ERA over 4. Acquiring him at this point is a risk, as he struggles down the stretch historically, but he’s pitching like the ace he is thus far. The ERA will come around.

Scott Baker – A 4.93 ERA makes this look like another poor start for Baker. But K/BB is now higher than it was the past two seasons. Even better, Baker’s GB% is the highest it’s been since he came into the league. If he can keep it in the high-30s, an ERA in the mid-3′s is not just possible, it’s likely.

Travis Snider - Snider is only hitting .247 with 6 homers on the season, but he’s been coming around of late. His batting eye is up 11 points from last season, due mostly to a K rate decrease from 32.4% to 25.0%. And while 6 homers may not seem like a lot, his ISO is up to .241. He’s clearly seeing the ball better,  and if he can make contact at a higher rate, we could see the Travis Snider who was ranked as one of the top prospects in baseball a year ago.