Suprise Performances: Silva, Millwood, and Livan.

Who would have guessed that on April 20th, Livan Herandnez and Carlos Silva would be first and second in the Major Leagues in ERA. Early season surprises are to be expected. But we are now at the point where most starters have made their third start of the season. While three starts is not a reasonable sample size to judge a pitcher by, some are performing at such a high level that we need to take a closer look at their lines. Carlos Silva, Kevin Millwood, and Livan Hernandez are widely considered three of baseball’s worst pitchers. All were good at one point, and Millwood even put up a nice ERA in 2009, but coming into the season, very few teams were willing to give them a look. Silva was acquired by the Cubs for one reason; to balance out Milton Bradley’s salary. Bradley is a talented player, but the Cubs felt they had to get rid of him and his impact on the clubhouse. Livan Hernandez didn’t have a job when the season started, and is now a member of baseballs worst pitching staff, the Washington Nationals. And Kevin Millwood was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles for former-closer/average middle reliever Chris Ray. Any team that wanted one of these pitchers could have had them, essentially for free.

If, back in March, I told you Livan Hernandez was leading the league with a 0.00 ERA on April 20th, you’d probably have responded with something along the lines of “Yeah, who’s gonna give him a job?” The fact is, Livan has logged 16 innings, two starts, without giving up a single run. In his first stint with the Nationals/Expos, Livan was actually a pretty solid pitcher, with ERA’s of 3.20, 3.60, and 3.98 and at least 230 innings in each of his three season with the club. But in 2006, he was traded to Arizona, and his career fell apart. Since then, his ERA has gone from 4.83, to 4.93, to 6.05, to 5.44. In his prime, Hernandez was an innings eater. He threw strikes, induced a decent number of groundballs, and had at least a serviceable strikeout rate. He was pretty average, but you could do worse. Livan Hernandez is not about to have a Cliff Lee like turnaround though. For one, he’s 35 years old and he throws about 84 MPH. And even with his shiny 0.00 ERA, Hernandez has just 4 strikeouts in 16 innings, with 5 walks. His xFIP is still well over 5, and without his .180 BABIP, 100% LOB%, and 0.0 HR/FB rate, Livan would look like what he is – one of the worst pitchers in baseball. If you have Livan, trade him. Not only should we not buy into 2 good starts, they haven’t really been all that good. If you grabbed Livan (why?) see what you can get for him. Even if you aren’t selling all that high, it’s better than waiting for him to blow up, kill your ERA and WHIP, and end up without a Major League job.

Second in the league in ERA? Carlos Silva. Again, Silva was pretty good at one point. In 2005, Silva had an ERA well under 4. So was his K rate, but the fact that he walked just 9 batters in 188 1/3 innings, and kept the ball on the ground when it was in play, limited the damage of his low K rate and made him a serviceable starter. The next few years, while Silva still demonstrated solid control, it was no longer at a high enough level to balance out the fact that he couldn’t miss bats. And as his GB% slipped, he started giving up a huge number of home runs. But in 2007, a lucky HR/FB rate kept his ERA around 4, and Bill Bavasi was fooled into giving him a 4 year, $48 million contract. His luck reverted, and Silva started to suck again in 2008. In 2009, he gave up nearly a run an inning. Now if Silva can’t keep his ERA under 8 in front of the best defense in baseball, how is he going to fare in Wrigley field, in front of a pretty mediocre cubs defense? So far, so good. In 13 innings, Silva has 8 strikeouts, and has yet to walk a batter. His control is back to pre-Seattle form, and batters, who usually make contact with Silva about 90% of the time, are under 80% so far. This is a very small sample size, so take these numbers with a several hundred grains of salt. But Silva is the kind of pitcher who could be very solid if he only struck out 5-6 guys per 9 innings, something he hasn’t come close to since his days in Philadelphia as a reliever. Moving to the NL, where he can face a pitcher ever other inning might just do the trick. Furthermore, Silva, who usually throws his fastball upwards of 80% of the time, is now throwing it under 60% of the time, mixing in significantly more changeups and sliders. Let me be clear, I still wouldn’t touch this guy with a 10 foot pole and one of those suits from The Hurt Locker. He has little upside, and his downside could kill your ERA and WHIP. A contact, flyball pitcher, in a hitters park? Ouch. But if you’re desperate in an NL-Only league, I think Silva is the kind of guy that, with his new pitch selection and league, could be solid. Get you a few wins, and as many Ks as a middle reliever, while not killing you elsewhere.

Of all the pitchers on this list, Kevin Millwood was clearly the best at his best. Even going into last year, I suggested he might be a good fantasy sleeper. While he did post a very solid ERA, Millwood’s skill set took a major step down, and coming into this season, nobody wanted him. But after three starts, Millwood’s ERA is under 3. Now, it’s three starts. And “under 3″ isn’t exactly shocking.. plenty of pitchers have three quality starts in a row. What’s really surprising is his K/BB rate. Millwood always had solid control and an OK K rate, but through 18 2/3 innings, Millwood now has 20 strikeouts and just 1 walk. Those numbers jump off the page, and his xFIP stands at 2.77. Again, really small sample size. But not ignorable. After all, back in 2008, he did have a 4.02 FIP and 4.20 xFIP. He had a solid K rate, a solid BB rate, and a solid GB rate. And given his 2002-2006 skill set, it’s not impossible to imagine him as a good pitcher. Millwood’s 2009, which most see as a fluky good year, could, from a skill set stand point, simply be a fluky bad year. If you’re in an AL only league, and the Millwood owner is looking to sell high, he might be worth picking up. Don’t expect a 2.89 ERA all year, but if he posted another sub-4 ERA, struck out a decent number of batters, and had a solid WHIP, with maybe 10-15 wins, you’re looking at a very solid pitcher. And it wouldn’t shock me.