Rick Ankiel, Fantasy Sleeper?

Can Rick Ankiel provide some fantasy value? That’s a question AL only owners like myself are going to have to examine going in 2010, as the former Cardinals outfielder (and former Cardinals pitching phenom) signed with the Kansas City Royals on Thursday.

Ankiel’s story is well known to most baseball fans. A highly touted high school pitcher, he was drafted by the Cardinals in 1997, and by 1999 he was considered one of the top prospects in all of Baseball, Baseball America’s minor league player of the year. Injuries destroyed his career as a pitcher, but in 2005, he transitioned to the outfield and began to hit. In 2007, Ankiel hit 32 homers in AAA before a promotion to the Majors, were he hit .285 with 11 homers in only 47 games. In 2008, he would again produce good power numbers. Although he only hit .264, his 25 homers and .242 ISO provided significant value.

Last year was a bit of a disaster though. Injured on May 4th, he spent a few weeks on the DL. He return to play a career high 122 games, but he clearly wasn’t himself. He hit .231 with just 11 homers, as his ISO dipped to just .156. This can be partly attributed to the injury. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs believes this to a be a good signing for the Royals (is that even possible?) and think he will fill a major hole in right field. If he is to start, there is some fantasy value here. He will hurt your average, and he’s not worth a gamble in mixed leagues, but there is plenty of power upside.

But I’m not sure I can pin this squarely on the injury. Pre-injury, he was hitting under .250 and his power numbers were just as bad (2 homers and a .148 ISO). When he came back from the injury, in June and July, he was actually hitting ok. He wasn’t himself, but he wasn’t much worse than pre-injury Ankiel. It was really his last couple of months that killed his season. It’s hard to pick out any point in which he was playing at a high level. April was ok – a .265 average and a .772 OPS – but he only hit 2 home runs.

Ankiel is worth some risk. He was clearly hurt last season, and his upside is in the 25-30 homer range. He wont help your average, but if you can get him cheap, go for it. But if your league mates are expecting a full bounce back, or close to it, stay away. Ankiel’s 2009 season was a major failure and there isn’t much hope to be found in his numbers. Maybe he can bounce back, or maybe not. I’m betting he doesn’t.