Position Preview: Shortstop

On to shortstop! This year, clearly the more shallow of the middle infield positions. There is a good top-5, but after that… ouch. Things really start falling off. We have some solid upside picks but no one really stands out. This is the year to draft a shortstop early.

Something of interest: My ranking of the top-5 mirrors position ADPs, so I also included overall ADP. Keep in mind that Reyes, Tulo, and Jroll are all going about the same spot, where as I have Reyes and Tulo in a tier of their own, and Rollins down a bit, around Jeter’s level. If you miss out on the top-3, don’t jump on Rollins too early. You can wait 20-30 spots and get Jeter. This is the power of the tier system of drafting.

Tier 1:

1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins (ADP: 1, 2)

Ramirez had a strange 2009 season. The lack of speed is not shocking. He’s 25 and still adding strength and power. The strange thing is the drop in homerun output. He hit 33 homers in 2008, but only 24 in ’09. I wouldn’t be too worried. He’s yet to hit his prime, and should return to the 30+ homer level in 2010. His batting average kept his value from dropping too much, and given his 2007 season, that BABIP is not completely unprecedented. This is the kind of guy that can compete for batting titles, although I’d set my expectations somewhere between 2008 and 2009.  He’s not going to steal 50 bases again, but speed shouldn’t completely go away either, and it’s not impossible it rebounds just a bit. Think Alex Rodriguez for his upside. He’s as talented as they get, and entering his prime, he could become a consistent 35 homer, 20 steal force, who hits over .300 with 100/100 in the run production categories. Top-3 pick in any format, number 1 in keeper/dynasty leagues.

Tier 2:

2. Troy Tulowitski, Colorado Rockies (ADP: 2, 18)

I was actually quite surprised to see this guy had an ADP of 2 at his position, but I believe he’s worth it. Sure, he wont hit .340 next year, like he did in the second half of 2009, but he’s a legit .290-.300 hitter. The power is real. According to hit tracker online, only a quarter of his homeruns last season were classified as “just enough,” which makes me think his jump in hr/fb isn’t just a bit of good luck. He also has a good amount of run production, and in 2009 some more speed emerged, as he stole 20 bases. Even more impressive is his age. He was just 24 last season. Don’t be afraid to bid “too much” for this guy. He’s 25 years old, and given his 30/20 season, good batting average, and sick second half, he’s worth it. Plus, as I said, SS is very shallow this year. You want a good one, and they don’t get much better than Tulo.

3. Jose Reyes, New York Mets (ADP: 3, 20)

Jose Reyes is arguably a bit undervalued in 2010, but the risk you take with him means you can’t project him for a full repeat of his 2006-2008 seasons just yet. This guys upside is ridiculous. He could easily steal 70+ bases, hit .290-.300, score 100 runs, and even hit 15-20 bombs. If he does that, he’s a top-5 pick, and he’s just reaching his peak years. But he has been plagued by leg injuries much of his career, and while he put up 4 straight 600 at bat season from 2005-2008, he sometimes dis-proved the statement that speed doesn’t slump. I personally wouldn’t project him at full playing time or speed output, but his upside means I’ll give him 550 at bats and 40-50 steals, and value him at that level. Very big risk/reward pick. He could go .310, 80, and 25 though.

Tier 3:

4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 4, 21)

Rollins started off with a brutal batting average in the first half of the season, but in the second half, he rebound quite a bit, hitting .272 with 14 homers and 16 steals. Rollins is still only 31 years old, and he’s only a couple years removed from hitting almost .300. I don’t think he’ll do it again, but he should hit in the .270-.280 range, and his power and speed are tremendous, as well as his run production in that Phillies lineup. That said, he’s going to be over valued. He’s not going to help you that much more than, say, Derek Jeter, and his first half shows significant downside. He’s not at Reyes’ or Tulo’s level in my opinion, so unless he falls, he probably wont be on any of my teams.

5. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees (ADP: 5, 52)

The Captain bounced back from a less than spectacular 2008 season to assert his positions as one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball (his defense wasn’t too bad either). He is 35, but the improvement is explainable. Why did his power go up? The new stadium, as he hit 13 of his 18 homers at home. Why did he steal 30 bags? He moved to the leadoff role, and Girardi is a semi-aggressive manager. There’s nothing that jumps out as fluky. Expect a BA well over .300, 15+ homers, 20+ steals, and tons of runs.

Tier 4:

6.  Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 7, 106)

Bartlett’s breakout season may not be entirely for real, but it’s certainly understandable. Basically, he stopped hitting the ball on the ground so much, and his increased LD% + power led to a higher batting average and more homers. Given a bit more at bats, this it he kind of guy that could steal 30-40 bases, and hit .300, with double digit homers. Don’t expect a full repeat of 2009, but if people think he’s going to collapse, he could be a good value play.

7.  Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers (ADP: 13, 176)

Andrus had a nice start to his MLB career, hitting .267 with 33 steals, and scoring 72 runs. Those numbers are good, but when you consider he was only 20 years old last year, you realize just how special he could become. Elvis makes a ton of contact and has the speed to beat out infield hits. He hits a lot of groundballs and liners, so he has a good amount of batting average upside, although his power wont develop until he hits the ball in the air a bit more. Still, he was 20. Most guys his age were at A ball. So power could show up. Elvis is more known for his glove, but he’s a guy worth owning in your fantasy league. Should hit .275-.280 at least, and 40+ steals is a legitimate possibility given increased playing time. This guy is dynasty league GOLD. One of my few breakout picks at the SS position.

8. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves (ADP: 11, 151)

Escobar is a proven batting average asset and he’s only getting better. In 2009, his K rate dropped for the third time in three years, and his ISO continues to improve. He’s 27 and entering just his third full season as a starter, so there is a good amount of upside here. He probably hits a bit too many ground balls given his lack of speed, and if he can up his LD% and FB%, we’re looking at a potential .310/20/90/100/5 guy. Don’t pay for that line, but .300/15/80/70/5 is likely.

9. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians (ADP: 12, 159)

I remember Cabrera as the young second baseman on the 2007 Indians, who knocked the Yankees out of the playoffs in round 1 and probably cost Joe Tore his job. So it’s hard to believe, but he will only be 24 going into next season. He’s not going to put up crazy numbers, but he does have more upside, and you’re looking at a .290+ batting average, 15-20 steals, and a good number of runs. Growth is very likely at this point, although 2009 BABIP means it probably wont be as noticeable.

Tier 5:

10. Marco Scutaro, Boston Red Sox (ADP: 16, 187)

Scutaro’s 2009 breakout is very believable, but his fantasy upside is limited. The big improvement came in his BB rate, which helped him score a lot more runs, but otherwise, you’re looking at a very similar player, with just a bit more power and speed. He’ll score a lot of runs if he hits near the top of the Boston lineup, but expect .275-.280, double digit HR and SB, and maybe 60-70 RBIs.

11. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 6, 104)

Ramirez had a somewhat disappointing 2009 season, but I expect him to rebound in 2010. He makes enough contact that he should be able to hit .280-.290, but his power and speed are just solid, and while he does have 20-20 upside, he’s not exactly young and I don’t know how much his power and speed will get better. So while a bit of a rebound is likely, a breakout is not.

12. Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 20, 281)

The Brewers traded away JJ Hardy this off-season to make room for Alcides Escobar, and while he is better know for his glove, he does have decent speed, and could hit for a solid batting average. Plus, hitting high in a lineup that includes Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun is never a bad thing. 40 steal, .300 batting average, 100 run upside (someday), although .275, 30, and 70 is still going to help you out quite a bit.

13. Miguel Tejada, FA (ADP: 10, 134)

Tejada changes his approach a bit in 2009, making even more contact than the past couple of years and his batting average shot up. His BABIP has always been high, but I don’t see him replicating his 2009 level in 2010. He can probably hit .300 with some solid supporting numbers, so you could do worse, especially in an NL only league, but the power is gone and the batting average will drop. At 36, don’t expect a full repeat of 2009.

14. Ryan Theriot, Chicago Cubs (ADP: 19, 249)

Hard to believe he’s going this late. Theriot gives you a solid batting average and 20+ steals from the shortstop position. Speed has gone down just a bit the past couple of season, but don’t worry too much. Still in his prime, and solid as they get.

15. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels (ADP: 15, 186)

Can we buy his 2009 breakout? Yeah, sort of. He was 25, and for the first time in his career, he was actually starting full time. Improving LD%, ISO, and K rate led to the increased average, and while he may not hit .312 next year, he could hit .290-.300. With Chone Figgins gone, he could hit leadoff next season, which could help his R and SB totals. If he does, he moves up, as 20 steals and 100 runs would be very possible. If not, he’s still a good bet for 15, and 75, and growth continues to be a possibility.

Biggest sleeper: Probably Andrus. I mean, people know about his speed, but he was 20 last year! Anyone that thinks this is a .270 hitter with no power for his career is nuts. His upside is still Reyes-esque, although I don’t see him stealing 70 bags. But .300, 50, 100 is in his future.

Biggest bust: Rafael Furcal. His value is probably a bit down after his 2009 season, but it’s tough for me to see him being a top-10 SS. His skills are in decline, and besides a tremendous (but small-sample sized) 2008, he looks like a .270 hitter of late. Honorable mention goes to someone in a similar spot, Stephen Drew, who I just don’t see bouncing back too much. Both are solid, and have upside, but just going too high.

Deeeeeep sleeper: Escobar is going 20th among SS in mixed leagues. The Brewers clearly have faith in him, given that they were willing to trade JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez, and his steals will be there with playing time.