Position Preview: Second Base

With the chaos around the Halladay-Lee trade yesterday, I had to put off my second base rankings for a day, but here they are. For the first time in recent memory, the second base position is actually pretty loaded. It’s probably the stronger of the middle infield position, and features a few options that could be off the board in the first couple of rounds of your draft. That said, a few of the position staples are getting older, and a few good young players are emerging.

In AL and NL only leagues you’ll see a big difference. The AL holds 7 of my top 10 spots (5 of them are in the AL East!) with Rickie Weeks checking in as the fourth best in the NL.

As with first base, we are going to post the players in tiers, and also include their ADP at second on Mock Draft Central. Our catcher rankings can be found here. We’ll get a rankings page linked to in the nav-bar so it’ll be easier to find.

Tier 1:

1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 1)

Utley is a great player, and the top second baseman on our board, but don’t get your expectations too high. Utley was never going to repeat his 2007 batting average, and hasn’t hit .300 the past couple of seasons. He may have another .300 year left in him, but .290 is more in line with his skill set (ok I’m nitpicking). We can consider his drop in LD% and BABIP last year bad luck, so don’t worry about a decline just yet. I also wouldn’t bet on him repeating his stolen base numbers from last season, although he should certainly hit another 30 homers, steal 15 bags, as well as adding in 100/100 production. He does have a bit more upside over that, and at 31, he’s still in his prime. But I think we know what we are getting from Utley, and it’s just about what he has done the past couple of years. That makes him an elite player though, so don’t be afraid to pay an elite price to get him. First round pick.

2. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers (ADP: 2)

Kinsler’s 2009 season, although puzzling at first glance, isn’t too hard to explain. For whatever reason, a good chunk of Kinsler’s line drives became flyballs. This obviously had a positive effect on his homerun total, and a negative effect on his batting average. Add to that a large amount of bad luck, and you can explain what happened. Even though his K% dropped and his BB% went up, Kinsler’s BA dropped 75 points. This was due to a ridiculous batting average on balls in play of .245. Better luck, and a more normal LD/FB split, and Kinsler is at the very least a .280 hitter at the big league level. On the flip side of things, a few less flyballs will mean a few less homeruns, but don’t worry. He should still hit between 25-30 bombs, steal well over 30 bases, and score a ton of runs. Expect a return to elite status in 2010. The gap between him and Utley is smaller than it appears.

Tier 2:

3. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees (ADP: 6)

2009 could certainly be categorized as Cano’s breakout year, coming on the heels of a very disappointing ’08 season. 2010 could be even better. At only 27, Cano may not have his power peak quite yet, and while 25 homers in 2009 seems like a big jump, he did hit 19 in 2007, and his HR/F last year was in line with his 06 and 07 seasons. Hit Tracker Online has his JE% at around 36%, a bit lucky, but only a couple homers off his 2009 total. He has 30 home run upside, and 20-25 seems like a safe bet. Even better, Cano’s role in the Yankees lineup should increase next season, with Hideki Matsui and possibly Johnny Damon gone. Cano could end up hitting 5th, right behind the best 1-4 in baseball (Jeter, Granderson, Tex, Arod). He drove in 85 runs last season, and I could see that going up into the 95-100 range next year. The bottom line is that you have a 27 year old, who is a near lock to hit .300+, with emerging 20-30 homer power, hitting right in the middle of the best lineup in baseball. He could be on the verge of moving into the elite category.

4. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox (ADP: 4)

Don’t worry about Pedroia. His 2009 season wasn’t much different from 2008. He actually struck out less, and walked more, and while his power was down a bit in the first half, 11 homers and a .183 ISO in the second half could mean a 20 homer season isn’t far away. He should hit well over .300, and a 15 homer/20 steal season looks like a good bet. There is some 20/20 upside lurking, and he’s always going to give you a ton of runs hitting near the top of that Boston lineup. He was probably a bit overrated last year, but he’s just entering his prime, and much like Cano, he could again be considered among the elite going into 2011.

5. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 3)

Phillips is a very solid option, who will give you a decent batting average, and is almost a lock to go 20-20 at this point. While he may never return to his 2007 levels, he’s right in his prime at 29, and he certainly has some across the board upside. His batting average keeps him out of the top-4, but assuming the Reds lineup has a bit of a bounce back year next season, he’s certainly right there in tier 2, and a 25-25 or even 30-30 season is not impossible.

Tier 3:

6.  Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP: 7)

Aaron Hill is a good young second baseman, and a bounce back year from injury was expected. But not 36 homers. Nor do I believe that’s his new baseline. There just isn’t enough in his prior stats to support a HR/FB jump that significant. Still, his distance numbers don’t appear to be that far off, and given his age, we wont dismiss the output. I’ll say pay for 30 homers, a .290 batting average, and 85 RBIs. If Hill takes the next step, or even repeats his 2009 numbers, you’ll have a huge profit, and even if he only hits 25 bombs, it’s not going to kill you – he’d still be a top-10 second baseman. It only takes one owner looking at 36 and 108 to price you out, but if you’re league is skeptical, scoop him up, because this power increase does look real.

7. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 10)

Lopez had his breakout year in 2009, but at 26, don’t expect him to stop getting better by any means. His batting average was a bit deflated last season, and could bounce back to 2008 levels. After all, his K% has hovered between 10-12% the last few seasons, and he certainly has good power. The Mariners have improved the top of their lineup, and hitting third behind Ichiro and Chone Figgins could mean a 100 RBI season. Add to that his 30 homer upside, and .297 batting average from 2008, and you could be looking at a second breakout season. If everything goes right, given his age and skill set, he could join the ranks of the elite fantasy second baseman, although for now, he stays as a tier-3 value pick.

8. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 5)

Roberts is still a viable option in mixed leagues, but be warned; he is a player in decline. His batting average drop last year was for real, but much more disturbing is his recent SB trend. 50 in ’07, 40 in ’08, and only 30 in ’09. He’ll still hit for a solid average and steal a good number of bases, but 2010 could be worse than 2009, and he’s not a top-5 second baseman anymore. Probably best to stay away.

9. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 8)

We should have seen Zobrist’s 2009 coming. No, I don’t mean him leading the world in WAR, but we should have seen the tremendous progress he made in the second half of 2008. Small sample size killed us, but now it’s clear, he’s not the same player. That said, his second half means we can’t expect a full repeat. I’m willing to bet on a .285 batting average and a 20/15 season, but I wouldn’t pay for much more. He could still get better, after all he’s only been a full time player for less than one season, but his ADP looks about right.

10. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins (ADP: 9)

Another ADP right on the mark. You should expect his batting average to bounce back a bit next season, although it’s going to hurt some. Still, not many players who can give you 30 homers and 90 RBIs consistently at this position. He could benefit from a move out of Florida, although San Fran would probably be worse.

Tier 4:

11. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 13)

Here is where the big drop off starts. Weeks missed much of last season with an injury, but his pre-injury HR numbers show a lot of upside. He has yet to put together a 500 at bat season, so we are going to be a bit cautious when projecting him, but still, he’ll only be 27 next year, and he’s got clear 20-20 upside. Batting average will kill you though, and he wont drive in many runs.

12. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels (ADP: 11)

Kendrick saved his 2009 season by batting .358 in the second half, but his first half issues and loss of playing time have to be concerns. He’s proved he can hit .300 at the big league level, and will give you a solid number of steals. The batting average upside is still immense, especially considering he’s only 26, but there’s some downside too, and don’t expect much production elsewhere.

13. Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves (ADP: 20)

If Prado can keep the second base job in Atlanta, he could be an excellent value pick given that ADP as the 20th 2B off the board. Pay attention in NL leagues. This is a guy who’s still young, and has already shown the ability to hit for an excellent average. There might be some power upside here too, as his ISO last year was way up, and he’s still only 25. Good sleeper pick.

14. Kelly Johnson, FA (ADP: 27)

Depending on where he lands he could move up or down this board. His 2009 batting average was a bit deflated, and he still has power/speed upside. Assuming he lands a starting job, he could be a very good pickup in NL only leagues.

15. Orlando Hudson, FA (ADP: 12)

Hudson could get a bit overrated because of his early numbers last season. He’s going to hit for a solid batting average, but his power and speed numbers will never be great and we don’t know where he will end up.

Biggest sleeper: Jose Lopez, Seattle.

Biggest bust: Brian Roberts, Balitmore.

Deeeeeep sleeper: Gotta go with someone in the NL, and I’ll say Clint Barmes. He may not hit for a high average, but should improve over 2009, and his power/speed combo is great for a second baseman.