An NL-Only Auction

Last week I went over my AL-Only team, so today I’ll take a look at my NL-only roster. The auction was last night. This is an 11-team, 5×5 roto league.

My strategy going in was to spend most of my budget on hitters. I wanted to come out of the draft with at least one top-tier starting pitcher (Ricky Nolasco was my main target) and at least one solid closer, if not two. I ended up spending a bit more on pitching, but given the quality of $1 arms out there, it worked out ok. I love my offense. It’s an old team, which means there’s a bit more injury risk, but also a lot less performance risk. You’ll see a lot of “dependable value picks” in there, as a lot of the older, lower-upside players went really cheap. This is probably the best draft I’ve had this year (and, sadly, my final one) and I really think I have a good shot to compete for the championship. Pretty good for a first time NL’er at least.

Offense:

C – Geovany Soto ($14) - Injuries derailed his 2009 season, but he’s a couple of years removed from a .285/23/86 season, and only 27. Filling up a catcher’s spot with this kind of upside is great, and there are still a couple of solid backups out there.

C – Bengie Molina ($8) – Not the biggest fan of Molina in the world, but you know what you’re going to get from him. A solid batting average and 15-20 homers. Looking back, I probably could have had a better option late in the draft at this price, but until Posey comes up I like Molina as my second catcher.

Laroche is money in the bank, and good value at $14.

1B – Adam Laroche ($14) - I had Laroche valued at $22 coming in, so I couldn’t believe it when the bidding stopped at $14. This is a guy with two straight .270/25 seasons. He’s moving into a great hitters park, and should get plenty of RBI opportunities hitting right behind Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, and Justin Upton.

2B – Luis Castillo ($8) - Desperately looking for some speed in the end-game, I settled on Castillo. I don’t like to look for speed from a 35 year old, but if he can me 20 steals I’ll be happy at this price.

SS – Orlando Cabrera ($7) - Another old guy that I don’t love, but will settle for in the single digits. He gives me a solid batting average, decent power, and potentially double digit steals. I’ll take it.

3B – David Wright ($34) - I think David Wright is going to rebound. He’s 27, and 27 year old’s don’t just hitting for power, even on the Mets. He’s hit 6 homers this spring, and if he rebounds, $34 is a reasonable price, if not a bargain.

CI – Daniel Murphy ($2) – Before the injury I had him in the low-teens. He was a young player with a full time role, a solid batting average, and some power upside. Even if he misses the first month of the season, Mike Jacobs sucks. Unless Ike Davis tears up the minor leagues – and given his K rate last year I don’t think he will – Murphy gets his job back on May first, and he’s a decent bargain. If Davis or Jacobs does take the job, I lose $2. Oh well.

MI – Aki Iwamura ($4) – See Orlando Cabrera. I’ve never been an Iwamura fan… but he’s solid and proven. And at $4, I couldn’t resist. He went for $11 in NL Tout. Plus, he’s shown some crazy speed before (early last year) so who knows?

OF – Ryan Braun ($41) - I usually don’t like to go over $40 for anyone, but for Ryan Braun, I made an exception. Braun was the first player I bought, and if I had had a $34 David Wright, I might not have gone in this direction. But I’m not complaining. Braun was my second highest rated player, and gives me tremendous 5-category production.

OF – Manny Ramirez ($25) - Did I overpay for Manny? Maybe. But I’m a believer. He wasn’t great in the second half of last season, but he wasn’t bad either, and when Manny wants to hit, he hits. With his contract expiring at the end of the year, I have a feeling Manny has another great year.

OF – Raul Ibanez ($16) – This was another one of those aging, somewhat dependable, value picks. I had Ibanez in the 20s, so I had to go to $16. He’s 37 and I’d have liked to handcuff him with Ben Francisco in the reserve round, but he also hit 34 homers and drove in 94 runs last year. This kind of power hitter, in that ballpark, and in that lineup, is well worth $16.

OF – Scott Hairston ($1) - He’s not the Padres outfield I wanted (Will Venable) but he’s a potentially solid speed source for a buck in the end-game. If Gwynn or Venable struggles, Hairston gets a full time job. He’s got some speed, and the Padres plan on being extremely aggressive on the base paths this year, so there’s a lot of upside here.

OF – John Bowker ($1) - May or may not have played himself into a starting job with a very good spring. Either way, between RF and 1B, Bowker will get enough at bats to earn back the $1 I paid for him, and there’s a lot of upside here should he get full time, or nearly full time at bats.

U – Felipe Lopez ($3) - Lopez is another “value” pick at $3. The Cardinals infield, apart from Albert Pujols, is very shaky, and given how Lopez performed last season and how much LaRusa likes to mix up his lineups, he should be able to pick up a lot of at bats in 2010. Plus, there’s some speed upside here, and at 29, he’s not too old to start stealing bases again. Fingers crossed.

Pitching:

P – Wandy Rodriguez ($16) – This was too good of a price to pass up. I know Wandy is a bit of an injury risk, but his 2009 performance border on ace-caliber. I’ll just hold my breath all year and hope he doesn’t land on the DL.

P – Ricky Nolasco ($20) - Nolasco should help in the invent that Wandy blows out his arm. He really is an ace caliber pitcher, and his 21 strikeout, 1 walk performance in the Grapefruit League adds too my confidence. Even with an ERA north of 5 last year, he’s one of the safest starting pitching investments out there.

P – Billy Wagner ($19) – Wagner is still an elite closer. He still throws in the mid-90s, and last season, he struck out almost 15 batters per 9 innings.

P – Chad Qualls ($17) - I don’t think many realize how good Chad Qualls was last year, but when you couple a 6.43 K/BB rate with a 56.8% GB rate, that’s going to work out well. Two straight seasons of sub-3 xFIPs make him worth the $17 investment. Having two closers in an NL-Only league doesn’t hurt either.

P – Aaron Harang ($6) - Harang is as solid as they come, with a K/BB rate over 3 each of the last five seasons. His FB tendencies could hurt him in that ballpark, but he’s a good bet for an ERA around 4, and a good number of strikeouts. If he can pitch another 200 innings in 2010, he’s a steal at $6.

P – Aaron Cook ($1) – Do I love Aaron Cook? Of course not. A K rate of 5 isn’t all that exciting. But double digit wins, and an ERA around 4? I love that if I can have it for $1.

P – Felipe Paulino ($1) - Paulino’s flying way under the radar, but the 26 year old has some serious upside. His stuff is off the charts, with a fastball that sits around 95 MPH. His 2009 numbers (8.97 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 2.46 K/BB, 4.10 xFIP in 98 innings) are good enough to be worth a $1 pickup. At the very least, it will be fun to watch him pitch.

P – Garret Mock ($1) – I was hoping Scott Olsen would win the fifth starters spot in Washington, but Mock is a solid option as well. His minor league numbers say he can improve his control, and in 91 innings last year he flashed the ability to miss bats, and induce ground balls at an elite rate.

P – Jenrry Mejia ($1) - Upside. I love Mejia’s long term future, and his stuff really is good enough to absolutely dominate the 8th inning, where he will likely start the year (he’s already made the team). K-Rod is shaky, both from a performance and injury standpoint, and if he goes down, I’m willing to be it’s Mejia who grabs the job.