Johan Santana worth the risk?

Is Johan Santana on the decline? Many seem to think so, including ESPN.com’s Tristan Cockcroft, who today questioned whether Johan would end 2010 among the top-100 players in fantasy baseball. While Johan certainly carries some risk, I really don’t believe the two time Cy Young award winner is done pitching at an elite level just yet.

Going into last season, I very clearly stated I thought Johan Santana was on the decline. On the surface, his 2008 season looked like vintage Johan. A 2.53 ERA was a career low for the two time Cy Young award winner, and although he got a bit unlucky with the wins – 16 – he finished the season with over 200 strikeouts and a WHIP well under 1.20. But vintage Johan? Not quite. His strikeout rate fell bellow 9 for the first time since 2001, and his FIP was more than 100 points higher than his ERA. His velocity was way down, he wasn’t missing nearly as many bats, he wasn’t the same Johan.

Looking at last season as a whole, it would appear as though Santana was basically the same pitcher he was in 2008, with worse luck and a few more flyballs. His K rate stayed bellow 8, and his FIP of 3.79 was not ace caliber in the slightest. Throw in a late season surgery, and decline might be the appropriate term. The problem is that surgery. Those who downgrade Johan for his injury fail to realize how much it effected him for the final few months of the season. It clearly effected him significantly.

Let’s go back to June 1st, three months before Johan went under the knife. How did his numbers look at that point? Pretty freaking good. A couple of months into the year, he might just have been the Cy Young favorite, with a 7-3 record and 1.77 ERA in 66 innings. His underlying numbers were even more encouraging. His strikeout rate was through the roof at 11.72, and although his walk rate was a bit up, his K/BB rate was still an impressive 4.3.  Watching Johan in the first couple of months of the season, it was clear that he was pitching at a higher level than almost anyone else in baseball. Hitters just couldn’t touch him.

Then on June 2nd, Johan took the mound against Pittsburgh. He did manage a quality start, but for the first time all season, he struck out fewer than six batters. Then the wheels fell off. Against Philly on June 9th, he gave up 4 homers, and 5 ER, managing only 2 strikeouts. His next start, against the Yankees, he gave up a career high 9 ER, and again struck out only 3 batters. Something was wrong. During the first two months of the season, he struck out 7+ batters in 90% of his starts. He would do that only once in the next 3 months. On August 25th, Johan went on the DL, and on September 1st, he underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow.

Looking at that season, I can’t help but guess that Santana was hurt for much of the season. Early in the year, when healthy, he was possibly the best pitcher in the NL. He was dominating at a level we hadn’t seen from him since he joined the Mets. The wheels came off in early June, and he clearly wasn’t the same pitcher. Overall, I think there are two major factors working in opposite directions here. On one hand, Johan Santana is 31 years old and coming off fairly major surgery (albeit a surgery he had in 2003, the year before he won his first Cy Young award). On the other hand, when he was 100% last season, Johan was arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball. I think you have to give him a bit of a bump down given his injury, and his low K rate in 2008, as well as the drop in velocity he has experienced the past couple of seasons. But the first two months of 2009, to me, prove that he can still be the best, or near the best pitcher in baseball when he’s on. Basically, he’s worth taking a sizable risk.