Last June the Pittsburgh Pirates traded Eric Hinske to the New York Yankees. In order to fill his roster spot, Neal Huntington called up a 28 year old career minor leaguer by the name of Garrett Jones. Jones was a career .252 hitter in the minor leagues, but his .307/.348/.502 line at AAA earned him a chance at a big league job. Over the next 82 games – basically, half a season – Jones hit .293 with 21 homers and 10 steals.
That’s a pretty impressive performance, and if he could continue performing at that rate, Jones would be a first round pick. But no one believed he could, and so he slipped to the late rounds in almost every league. But a couple games into the season, Jones leads Major League Baseball with three home runs, including a monster shot into Allegheny River. Jones is clearly not going to hit 243 homers, and drive in 486 runs, but can he continue to produce elite fantasy numbers, or is now the time to sell high?
The first thing worth taking a look at is his minor league line. Jones has always possessed moderate power, with ISO’s of .192, .193, .205, and .195 in his last four AAA seasons. On four occasions, Jones had hit 20+ home runs in a season, peaking with 31 in 2004, when he was a 23 year old playing in A+ and AA for the Twins. His main problem is that batting average. Between 2004 and 2006, Jones struck out 100+ times, and hit under .245 in two of those seasons, with a K rate around 23%. A 23% K rate is not the end of the world, but when you’re BABIP is as low as Jones’ was, it’s going to cause you problems. In 2007, 2008, and 2009 though, his K rate dropped and his BABIP reached the .300+ mark. Jones hit .279, .280, and .307 at AAA. And what about the speed? He stole 24 bases at two levels last year, and that improved batting average may have helped somewhat, but he never showed that speed in the minor leagues, and his speed score of 4.4 was well bellow league average.
Jones’ minor league stat line does lead me to believe he can be a relevant fantasy player. The speed he flashed last year was probably not real, and he’s unlikely to hit .293 again. His .274 ISO was also out of whack with his minor league level of performance, so he’s unlikely to stay atop the Major League HR leaderboard for long. He’s just a solid player who could hit .270 with 20-25 homers, and maybe double digit steals. At this point, you’ve gotta sell high. Someone out there see’s his 2009 numbers, and see’s his quick start to 2010, and think he’s going to hit 40 homers, steal 20 bases, and hit .300. That’s not going to happen.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
