The Craziness of Ubaldo Jimenez

Yesterday, Ubaldo Jimenez struck out 9, walking none, in a complete game shutout. Jimenez hasn’t allowed a run in his last 27 1/3 innings. It’s June 1st, and his ERA stands at .78. He’s 10-1, and he also has a no-hitter. So yeah, he’s having kind of a good season. But is he the best pitcher in baseball? Has he even been baseball’s best so far this season?

Ubaldo is certainly one of the best pitchers in the league, and he has been for quite some time. No one wanted to pay attention until now. In 2008, Ublado threw 198.2 innings. His ERA was 3.99, and his FIP was 3.83. His control was a major issue, as he walked 4.7/9. But he had great stuff, could strike batters out, and could keep the ball on the ground. He took his next leap forward last season, surpassing 200 innings for the first time in his career. His walk rate dropped to 3.5, and his ERA to 3.47. He had a 3.36 FIP, and a 3.63 xFIP.

What has changed for Ubaldo since last season? His strikeout rate is down, but only slightly, and it’s still at a high level. His walk rate is also down bellow three, to 2.91. His groundball rate is up just a bit, over 54%. Ubaldo is probably the hardest thrower among baseballs starting pitchers (at least until Stephen Strasburg starts on June 8th) and the movement he gets on that pitch allows him to keep the ball on the ground, and post lower than normal HR/FB rates. But his improved control has seemingly allowed him to take the next step.

The HR/FB rate is an issue. His HR/FB rate, at the moment, stands at 1.6%. The league average is around 10, and most pitchers are in that general vicinity. I’m willing to believe Ubaldo, because of his tremendous stuff, can sustain a bellow league average HR/FB rate, as he’s done the past two seasons. His xFIP, which is around 3.50, is probably not an accurate indication of his ability. But 1.6% is simply unsustainable. He’s given up a single home run this season, and if his HR/FB rate were at the league average, he’d have given up about 7-8. In all likelihood, if we throw luck out the window, Ubaldo would be somewhere in 3-5 home run range on the year.

Jimenez is not 0.78 ERA good. No one is, no one has ever been. The lowest ERA in baseball since 2000 was the 1.74 that Pedro put up in 2000. Compare Ubaldo this year to Pedro that year. Ubaldo has a 7.84 K/9, Pedro had an 11.8 K/9. Ubaldo has a 2.91 BB/9, Pedro was at 1.2. Ubaldo has pitched very well, but he’s not having a historic season like Pedro in 2000, or Randy Johnson earlier this decade. He’s not pitching as well as Johan Santana did in his prime, and he’s probably not even pitching as well as Zack Grienke was through two months last season. Like Greinke, he will likely finish the year with an ERA in the low 2′s.

The real question is whether Ubaldo has been the best pitcher in baseball so far this season. Ubaldo leads the league in ERA and wins, but let’s look a bit further than that. He has a 2.62 FIP, which ranks third in baseball, behind Roy Halladay and Francisco Liriano. Why is it so much higher than his ERA? Ubaldo’s BABIP stands at .223, a completely unsustainable level. He’s also stranding 92.4% of baserunners. The league averages for those two numbers are around .300, and 70%. Ubaldo should have a slightly higher strand rate, because he’s a better pitcher than the league average. He’ll pitch better without guys on base, and he’ll pitch better with guys on base. The BABIP is also going to regress, and regress quite a bit. Ubaldo has had a slightly bellow average BABIP for most of his career, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see it around .280-.290. A .280 BABIP, to me, would show he was getting a bit lucky. But a guy with his kind of stuff could, potentially, be one of the exceptions. So far over his career, he’s shown that to be the case. His BABIP wont stay in the .220s, but a .285 BABIP wouldn’t be shocking. Bottom line, Ubaldo’s been lucky, but his FIP and xFIP don’t tell the whole story.

Jimenez has no doubt been among the best pitchers in baseball this season. I don’t think his 3.51 xFIP is a fair picture of his ability – I think he’s closer to his 2.62 FIP. He’s going to have a great year, and if he finishes the season with an ERA in the low-2s, and wins the Cy Young award, I wont complain. But I think Roy Halladay has been better. I think Hallady will be better going forward, and the two will finish the year with comparable across numbers in the W-L and ERA columns. I see Ubaldo as a 2.5-3.0 ERA pitcher the rest of the way, finishing the year just a bit behind where Zack Greinke was in 2009.

Jimenez has been great this season. No, he’s not baseball’s best pitcher. That would be either Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum. No, he probably hasn’t been baseball’s best so far. Halladay has pitched better in my opinion, and Ubaldo’s ERA is deflated by a fortunate HR/FB rate and BABIP. But it’s been fun to watch one of the best pitchers in baseball start of the season in historic fashion, and it will be fun to see where he ends the season.