Closer Watch: Week 1

Less than a week into the season and we already have a few closers on the hot seat. Already, 22 pitchers have a blown save, and two have multiple blown saves. So who’s going to turn it around? Who isn’t? Who’s going to take their jobs?

We have to start with Baltimore’s Mike Gonzalez. Gonzalez, who was signed this off-season to stabilize the Orioles bullpen, has not made a great first impression, blowing 2 of his first 3 saves. We shouldn’t look into this 2 IP sample size too much (at all) but will the Orioles? Gonzalez did lose the job to Rafael Soriano last year, despite ending the season with a 2.42 ERA and 90 Ks in 74.1 innings. The fact that he was signed to close this off-season, and that the Orioles don’t have a dominant setup guy to take over, might give Gonzalez a longer leash. But if he blows his next save or two that could be it. Jim Johnson would likely be the next in line for the closers role, where he had moderate success last season. Johnson is a big, hard throwing pitcher who induces a lot of groundballs, but probably doesn’t strike out enough batters to be a successful closer long term. Kam Mickolio is even bigger (he’s 6-9), throws even harder, and strikes out more than a batter an inning. He’s in the minors to start the season, but if you want a long shot saves guy, Mickolio isn’t a bad bet.

As bad as Mike Gonzalez has been, the Marlins bullpen has been worse. Though Leo Nunez has yet to allow a run, he blew his first save opportunity of the year, and has been extremely wild thus far. Nunez and former teammate Matt Lindstrom probably share the title of “worst closer in baseball,” so don’t be surprised if Nunez blows a few more. That being said, Nunez might just be the Marlins best reliever at the moment. That bullpen is a complete mess. The two options that stick out are Dan Meyer and Burke Badenhop. Meyer, a former top prospect who revived his career as a reliever last year, finished the season with a 3.87 FIP and 4.11 xFIP, striking out nearly a batter an inning. Badenhop is a groundball pitcher with good control who posted a very solid 7.00 K/9 last year, but his lack of velocity and history as a starter could keep him from getting many save chances. The longshot here might just be former #1 pick Andrew Miller. Everyone knows Miller has great stuff, but his horrendous control has derailed his career. He fits the profile of a closer, and if the Marlins can’t find anyone else to get 3 outs in the 9th, they might consider putting Miller in the bullpen. At the moment, you probably want to pick up Dan Meyer.

The Toronto bullpen, while not lacking in options, is still a bit of a mystery. Jason Frasor is a very good closer, but blew his first save of the year, and lacks the job security of other top-tier options. When your share a bullpen with two former closers, that can kill you. While Scott Downs would appear to be the Blue Jays next options should Frasor fail, Kevin Gregg came into the game on Friday with Frasor getting the day off. For now, Frasor’s job is safe. If he should lose it, Kevin Gregg, not Downs, may be the next guy in line. He’s a right hander, and he has more experience as a closer. Downs is the much better reliever though, and while Gregg does have a decent enough skill set to hold onto the job, he’s shaky at best. In deep leagues, Gregg is worth a flier, as is Downs, though Frasor should rebound enough to keep his job.

Frank Francisco has had a rough start to the season. After picking up his first save Monday, he imploded against the Blue Jays on Thursday, giving up 3 runs in two thirds of an inning. He’s got two years worth of performance indicating that he can be a solid closer, so don’t be too worried. Neftali Feliz is likely next in line for saves. Finally, Billy Wagner blew his first save of the year Friday night. Don’t be worried. Wagner is still an elite closer, and stuck out five of the first seven guys he faced this year.