Five Breakout Pitchers for 2010.

With the 2009 season almost over, I thought it would be a good idea to kick off our 2010 coverage with an article on several breakout pitchers for 2010. Guys you might want to go out and target in keeper leagues, or late in your draft next season.

The first guy I’m going to bring up is Jason Hammel. He’s got a 4.54 ERA, he pitches in Coors, I get that. But look at his underlying numbers. Hammel has a 3.73 FIP, a 2.81 K/BB rate, and a 0.79 HR/9. His biggest problem? A BABIP of .355. Hamel is still young enough, at 28, to improve, and he’s already got a nice skill set, with the groundball profile to succeed in this league, and tremendous control, as well as a nice fastball and an acceptable K rate. Don’t expect him to be a stud in the near future, but he could easily give you a solid ERA and a few wins on a decent Rockies team. He’s one of a few Colorado pitchers worth owning next season.

Scherzer could make the jump to fantasy ace level next season.

Hammel is more of a sleeper than a breakout, but if your looking for more of a breakout than a sleeper, look no further than Max Scherzer. It’s to early to tell what Scherzer’s market value will be next season, although I’m betting some people will catch on, given his 4.12 ERA and high K numbers. Still, much like Chad Billingsley a couple of years ago, it will be worth it to over pay. Scherzer will turn 25 this offseason, and his skill set suggest his ERA should be far bellow 4. He has a K rate this season of 9.59, good for  fourth in the NL. In fact, compare Scherzer to Clayton Kershaw. He has a higher K rate, a lower BB rate (by a lot), and a better GB% rate. Scherzer’s FIP stands at 3.43. He’s just been unlucky this year, with a BABIP of .346, even with his fairly low LD%. Expect a huge season from Scherzer.

Much like Scherzer, Brett Anderson is likely to be atop many breakout lists next season. That said, it will be worth it to over pay. Anderson’s ERA this season sits a 4.54, but looking at his skill set, we see a future ace. He has a healthy 7.34 K rate, a BB rate under 3, and a GB% approaching 50%. He truly has every skill you look for.

(Note on both Scherzer and Anderson: Watch their innings the rest of the season. They are both pretty close to what I’d say is their innings limit, but if their clubs let them pitching another 20-30 innings this season, I’d be a bit worried. Still huge breakouts, just keep that in mind.)

Scott Baker was my big fantasy sleeper for the 2009 season, and let’s just say it didn’t go so well. Baker has a 4.6 ERA through Monday. That said, he’s still a breakout/sleeper candidate for the same reasons; mainly, that he strikes out a lot of batters and almost never issues a walk. This season, his K/BB numbers have gotten even better. His K rate is up, and as I predicted, his BB rate has dipped under 2. He’s still an extreme flyball pitcher, but if he can keep his HR rate around 1, like he did last season, he could easily post a 3.5-3.75 ERA, instead of a 4.6. K/BB rates over 4 are hard to ignore.

Finally, if you’re looking for next years Zack Greinke – someone who we know is good, but is still underapreciated and could take it to the next level next season – look no further than Jon Lester. His K rate shot up in 09 from 6.5 to over 10. He’s also kept his fantastic control, giving him a 3.55 K/BB rate and a 3.06 FIP. Lester will be 26 next season, so he is just entering his prime, and while his ERA declined this season, all his skills are getting much better, from his K rate, to his K/BB rate, to his GB%, FIP, tRA, and so on. You want to target Lester next season. A sub-3 ERA is quite possible, as well as a ton of wins, and a ton of strikeouts. He will be a legitimate fantasy ace.