The American League Cy Young Race

With a little over a month to go in the 2010 Major League season, the Cy Young race in the American League is still wide open. We have a least as many candidates as we did in May, probably more, and while there is still time for someone to step things up and lay claim to the most prestigious pitching award in baseball, that player has yet to come forward.

A year ago today, we would not be having this conversation. Zack Greinke, who ran away with the award in April and May, was still as sharp as ever late in the season and while there was some concern that his lack of wins would cost him votes, it seemed ridiculous to suggest anyone else would win. Greinke was having a legendary season. His ERA of 2.16 was 105% better than the league average, giving him an ERA+ of 205, one of the highest figures in the games history. He was striking out well over a batter per inning, rarely walking anyone, and surrendering a league-leading 0.4 home runs per nine innings.

The 2010 race is as murky as the 2009 race was clear. We don’t have a Greinke. But someone will win the award, that much we know. Who will it be? Let’s look at a few of the leading contenders.

Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill

Why they could win:

If the vote were held today, Buchholz would likely get some serious consideration. Buchholz is second in the league in wins, with a 15-5 record. He also leads the American League in ERA, with a 2.26 mark. His 194 ERA+ is almost Greinke-esque. Similarly, Cahill is 14-5 with the second best ERA in the American League, 2.43. He’s also a young, hard throwing righty who was once a highly-touted prospect and struggled initially in the big leagues only to break out this season.

Why they might not:

The biggest problem facing both Buchholz is his severe lack of innings pitched. Buchholz missed a month in the middle of the season, and right now stands at 139 1/3 innings pitched. Cahill didn’t make his first start of the season until April 30th, and (in one more start than Buchholz) has thrown 155 2/3 innings this season. Not quite as big of a deal, but still something to consider.

As good as their statistics appear, both have been aided by some great luck and tremendous defensive play. Buchholz’s .265 BABIP is 38 points bellow the league average, despite a high percentage of groundballs. He’s also stranded nearly 80% of baserunners this season. If he were Randy Johnson, that figure might not be shocking. But he’s struck out only 96 batters this season, less than 6.5 per nine innings. Coupled wit his still developing control, Buchholz seems more lucky than good. Cahill’s case is even more extreme, with a .217 BABIP, by far the lowest in the league, coupled with a strikeout rate well under six per nine.

The verdict:

I don’t think either of these pitchers should win the award. While they have both had nice seasons, it’s clear to me that neither has been the best pitcher in the American League, and that their low ERAs and strong W-L records have a lot too do with good luck, and strong defensive play.

As to whether they will win, I think their lack of innings and low strikeout numbers will really hurt their cases in the eyes of some voters. If one of them has a strong stretch run, wins a few more games, and runs away with the ERA title, they could grab the award. But at the moment, I think they are long shots.

David Price

Why he could win:

A couple of months ago, David Price seemed to be running away with the Cy Young award, leading the American League in wins and ERA at one point, and starting the All-Star game in July. But, as with Ubaldo Jimenez in the National League, Price’s low BABIP has regressed just a bit and his ERA has come back to the pack.

Price still has a very nice ERA (2.97) and W-L record (15-5). His innings pitched total is also low, but not quite as low as Buchholz. Unlike the two pitchers previously discussed, Price has been healthy all season.

Why he might not:

Like with Cahill, Price’s innings count might not prevent him from winning the award, but it certainly wont help. He’s made a couple fewer starts than most of the contenders, and has only averaged a little over six innings a start. His still shaky control obviously hasn’t helped.

Price is another candidate the stat geeks wont love. His strikeout numbers are good, but his control has been lackluster, and if not for a very fortunate HR/FB rate, his flyball tendency would likely have hurt just a bit.

The verdict:

He’s been at the forefront of this discussion all season, and his surface stats are very good, but he no longer leads the league in ERA or wins, and any voter who is at all sabermetrically inclined will be hesitant to cast their vote for a guy with a K/BB rate of just 2.25. He has a chance, like Cahill and Buchholz, but shouldn’t and most likely wont win the award in the end.

Felix Hernandez

Why he could win:

Of all the pitchers listed here, Felix has the most balanced case. His surface stats indicate a durable ace. He leads the league in innings pitched and strikeouts, and also has the third best ERA in the AL, behind Cahill and Buchholz.

While Felix might not be the sabermetric favorite, he does rank third in the American League in FIP and second in expected FIP. He’s also third in the American League in pitching wins above replacement.

Hernandez has a 10-10 record, bu he also pitches for among the worst teams in baseball and voters have shown in the past (Greinke, Lincecum) that they can overlook a mediocre W-L when a pitchers true production indicates he’s worthy of recognition.

Why he might not:

The 10-10 record is going to be difficult to overcome.The more enlightened voters may overlook it, but those voters may also flock to his former teammate who will be discussed latter on. Felix has a well rounded case, but I doubt, as of now, that many consider him the best choice.

The verdict:

If he leads the league in ERA, innings, and strikeouts, he’s got a very good shot, even with the poor W-L record. As to whether he deserves to win, that’s a tough question. He’d probably be my second or third choice.

CC Sabathia

Why he could win:

It seems like just yesterday CC Sabathia had an ERA over four and Yankees fans were nearing a revolt. Yet his ERA for the months of June, July, and August have been under 2.50, and he’s 13-2 over his last 16 starts.

We’ve seen before how important win totals are to voters, and CC leads the way with 17 on the season. He has a legitimate shot to reach 20 wins, which would likely make him the only 20-game winner in the American League this season.

He pitches for the highest profile team in baseball, which always helps, and his ERA of 3.02 puts him right there with David Price, and given his tendency to improve as the season progresses, he could finish in the mid to high 2′s.

Why he might not:

While his ERA and W-L record are impressive, his K/BB rate has declined for the third straight season, and he clearly isn’t the pitcher he once was. He’s been quite fortunate this season to end up with the ERA and W-L record he has, and if that luck runs out down the stretch, he could fall short of 20 wins and see his ERA rise.

The verdict:

I don’t think CC has been the best pitcher in baseball this season, and I don’t think he deserves the award. However, if he finishes with an ERA in the mid to high 2′s, and wins 20 games, I think he’ll be the favorite come November. At the end of the day, I think he’ll win the award.

Cliff Lee

Why he could win:

To put it simply, because he deserves to win. Cliff Lee has been the best pitcher in the American League this season, and despite some inconsistent results with Texas, there’s no doubt in my mind that he deserves to win the award.

His 10-7 record doesn’t help his case, but his 3.09 ERA puts him near the top of the league, and his 0.98 WHIP is the best in the AL. Cliff also leads the American League in FIP, with a 2.55 mark, is third in xFIP, and leads by a large margin in K/BB rate. His 13.73 ratio would shatter the all-time record among ERA qualifiers.

Despite missing the first month of the season, Lee should finish easily above 200 innings pitched. He also leads American League pitchers in wins above replacement, despite making fewer starts than Buchholz and Cahill.

Why he might not:

He has a pedestrian record, and his ERA has risen to the point that he no longer has a shot to lead the league in that category. Many voters wont pay attention to his K/BB rate, even should he break the all-time record.

The verdict:

If you haven’t figured it out yet, I think Cliff should win the award. He pitches eight innings a start, and strikes out more than 13 times as many batters as he walks.

If he does break the K/BB record, and I think he will, that might factor into things just a bit. It should get him some good publicity. There is going to be some support for Lee, and while I think Sabathia will pull this out in the end, Lee has a shot.

A few other contenders…

Francisco Liriano might get some support in the sabermetric community. He leads the American League in both FIP and xFIP and has the second best WAR. I’d place him second or third on my ballot, but his mid-3s ERA and poor record will likely take him out of contention.

CJ Wilson, like Price and Sabathia, has a good record and an ERA around 3.00. He’s unlikely to win the award, but will capture some votes.

Jon Lester and Jered Weaver have also had very good seasons, but their ERA and W-L records, while solid, likely aren’t good enough to garner serious first place consideration from voters.