2010 Bullpen Preview: AL Central

It’s been a while since I previewed the AL East bullpen situations, but today we continue with the AL Central. Joakim Soria and Joe Nathan are among the best in the business, but the other three bullpens could be up for grabs.

Minnesota Twins:

Closer - Joe Nathan.
Setup – Matt Guerrier.
Best pitcher - Nathan.

Nathan is still an elite closer and has shown very little reason to doubt him in 2010. 2009 was one of Nathan’s best seasons (although we could say that any year). He struck out almost 12 batters per 9 after a couple of seasons with a sub-10 K rate, and his FIP was again under 3. An upswing in FB% led to a few more homeruns, but don’t worry. He’s going to give you and elite ERA, tons of Ks, and 30-50 saves. Ever year. Past that, I don’t really see any great options in this bullpen. There are several arms but no one I love. Guerrier will probably start as the primary setup guy, although Jon Rauch probably has the most intriguing skill set of the group. Still, especially with Nathan being as consistent as he is, I’d stay away from the rest of that ‘pen.

Detroit Tigers:

Closer - Jose Valverde.
Setup – Joel Zumaya.
Best pitcher – Valverde.

Valverde enters 2010 as the Tigers closer, and his fairly solid skill set and experience make him a pretty safe bet to post another good season. There are some red flags here. His K rate dropped from 10.38 to 9.33, and his BB rate returned to pre-2008 levels. Still, there isn’t much behind him in that bullpen, so as long as he remains serviceable, he’s in no danger of losing his job. Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, and Daniel Schlereth all posses above average stuff and closer level upside, but their control and recent major league performance should keep everyone’s expectations in check. If Valverde goes down though, you want to own Perry.

Chicago White Sox:

Closer - Bobby Jenks.
Setup - Matt Thornton.
Best pitcher - Thornton.

This bullpen situation could have huge implications, as two highly skilled relievers reside in the South Side of Chicago. Bobby Jenks, the incumbent closer, had some issues with the team this past off-season, but he’s come into camp 20 pounds lighter, and his skill set from last season showed no signs of decline. It’s his job to lose, and in all likelihood, he wont. That said, Matt Thornton is one of the best setup men in baseball. If Jenks runs into trouble, or ends up somewhere else at the All Star break, Thornton immediately becomes one of the top closers in the AL, so keep a close eye on this situation.

Kansas City Royals:

Closer - Joakim Soria.
Setup - Juan Cruz.
Best pitcher - Soria.

Not much to say here, as Soria is among the best closers in baseball, young, and still getting better. Behind him, there are several intriguing arms. Kyle Farnsworth could start 2010 in the rotation, which would leave Juan Cruz as the Royals’ main setup guy. Cruz was atrocious last season. After two straight years of 12+ K rates, he failed to strikeout 7 guys per 9 and his ERA jumped from 3.61 to 5.73. He still has poor control, and gives up too many homers, so you probably should just stay away. Aaron Crow, the Royals first round pick in the 2009 draft, is more than a year removed from college, and should be ready for the big leagues right away, so if he doesn’t make the starting rotation, there is some reason to believe he could land in the bullpen. His power stuff and dangerous mechanics draw BJ Ryan comparisons. He might be worth a small bid in AL only leagues, but Soria’s job is obviously safe, assuming he stays healthy.

Cleveland Indians:

Closer - Kerry Wood.
Setup – Chris Perez.
Best pitcher - Wood?

The Indians bullpen is fantasy hell. Two years ago, Rafael Betancourt was the best middle reliever in baseball, only to suffer a major collapse in 2008. A year ago, Rafael Perez might have held that title. He completely collapsed as well. Kerry Wood entered last year as a borderline elite closer, and nearly lost his job. But we still have to talk about it. Kerry Wood has the skill set to be a competent closer, all be it an inconsistent one. Behind him, Rafael Perez is still a year removed from elite-MR status, and Chris Perez a year removed from being the Daniel Bard of 2008. Given Wood’s inconsistency, I’d give both a look, but don’t expect Wood to give up his job easily. He still possess 80 strikeout, 35 save potential, and is worth a look as a cheap save source in all formats.