Who would go in my first round?

 

Every year there is a group of 10-15 guys that are considered first round players in mixed 12 team leagues. Some guys are always on that list, for example Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. Some guys make that list, have a bad year, and drop back down like Jason Bay. Usually the guys you draft in the first round will be pretty solid, but it always helps to grab those MVP stats. If I had my way, these 12 guys would be first round picks.

1. Albert Pujols – While Pujols put up a career high OPS, and finished a couple points below his career high wOBA, last year was not his best fantasy season. He still however put up a .357 batting average and 37 homers. Because he hasn’t reached 40 homers the last two years and he doesn’t chip in much in steals like a Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez he might not be the consensus #1 but he should be. Pitchers were lucky to keep him in the park as much as they did last year and with his elbow finally healthy for the first time in years, he could hit 45 home runs. As always a .330-.360 BA is almost guaranteed. While you might like to grab some steals here, this is the right pick. Pujols is the best hitter in baseball and has been since Barry Bonds retired. You can’t pass him up. 

2. Hanley Ramirez – Ramirez is the second of the big three that should lead off every fantasy draft. His amazing power and speed combo could get him drafted as high as #1 overall. 30-30 is pretty much guaranteed, 40-40 isn’t that far away. A couple of 50 steal seasons showed us his speed, however his power has been steadily growing. .300 average is legit, as is 120 runs. Alex Rodriguez comparisons are a bit off, Ramirez doesn’t have the batting average or quite as much power, but by 2010 he’s probably the better fantasy bet. Get this all at the SS position, and your golden. 

3. Alex Rodriguez – Sure, he did steroids, but whatever he’s been doing while not testing positive the past 5 years has certainly worked. Of course the every other year thing with Arod is worth mentioning – he’s won the MVP the last 3 odd seasons – however from a statistical standpoint this is pretty much a no brainer. He’s probably a lock for .300 with 35-40 bombs, and his ceiling as we no is a lot higher. He’s likely to put up between 20-25 steals, and in New York his R/RBI total is going to be ridiculous. 

4. Miguel Cabrera - This guy gets underrated by everyone, and he is going to surprise. A first half slump hurt his overall numbers but 26 second half homers reminded us how much of a force he could be. He was my #1 guy last year, and I’m still keeping him in my top 5. His upside is insane, he could easily hit 40-50 homers with a .330 average, and his track-record is amazing at this age. He goes over Berkman and Howard 1000/1000 times for me. It’s not even close. 

5. Grady Sizemore – Last year this is what I wrote about Grady Sizemore: 

Grady Sizemore, .275, 34Hr, 87RBI, 36SB: Every one loved Sizemore last year. I really didn’t but this year I am thinking big rebound. He continues to develop power and his base-running ability’s are also improving (as you can see by his jump from 22 steals to 33). He still will not give you the batting average that you want from a top tier outfielder but his 30+ home run potential puts him over guys like Ichiro and his 30+ steals potential put him over guys like Vlady.

Sizemore hit .268 with 33Hr, 90RBI, and 38SB. Yep, that’s pretty beastly (on my part). This is still my opinion of him. He’s going to hit in the .270-.280 range, and a 30-30 season is pretty much guaranteed. He’s still 26, entering his prime, so that HR total could spike, and he has a chance at 40-40. Still .280 is the highest his BA will go, so I wouldn’t take him over any of the top 4. I would be just a little worried if I let this guy slip to one of my league mates. At 26 we could have Carlos Beltran 2.0 on our hands. 

6. Jose Reyes – Reyes worries me a lot. His OBP has never been as high as I would like and he’s an injury risk. Those hammy problems hurt him in 08, but a huge speed rebound in the second half show that he’s still a lock for 60-70 barring another injury. He’s 25 and with a SLG% rebound and a ridiculous LD% a big jump in homers is possible. He’s a legit .300 hitter with tons of speed and power upside, so I’d take him here. 

7. Ian Kinsler – .300 hitter with 30-30 upside hitting in that Texas lineup playing second base at the age of 26? Yeah, I’ll take it. It’s between him and Utley for that top second basemen spot, but he’s heading into his prime while Utley is moving out and his injury concerns appear to be less than Utley’s. He could be a top 5 guy by next season. 

8. Ryan Bruan - Yes, I want Braun over David Wright. Wright has him beat in batting average, they’re about even in steals, but Braun will hit more homers. His hr/f rate dropped drastically, that should move up and help his HR total. While some say Wright has the advantage because of third base eligibility, I disagree. You need 5 outfielders, you need 1 thirdbasemen. In a 12 team league that 1 thirdbasemen will probably be easier to find. Still very close, just depends on who takes the big step forward in power. I’m betting on Braun. 

9. David Wright - Wright is still a very good fantasy option. He will hit over .300 with 30 homers, and in a good Mets lineup his RBIs/Rs will help you out. He’s not likely to go back to stealing 30 bases, but 20 doesn’t hurt. Upward trends in SLG and less ground-balls look good for his future. Legit 40 homer threat, maybe not next season though. 

10. Manny Ramirez – This is a risky pick, but his upside is higher than anyone except maybe Hanram and Albert. If he signs that 1 year contract with the Dodgers watch out. This guy won’t be happy, but he’ll again be playing for a contract and we know what that means. A couple good but not great seasons in Boston hurt his value, but once he got out he was the best hitter in baseball. .382/.479/.688 in the second half are not flukes, and neither is his 2o homers. A LD% of 28 is unreal, and helped fuel that batting average and those RBIs. .320/40/130 are possible.

11. CC Sabathia – The first pitcher always goes around here, and CC is the best pitcher in fantasy baseball. While some would attribute his monster 2008 to a move to the NL, he won the AL Cy Young the year before. He’s always pitched well in Yankee stadium, and with that offense he will win 20 games. His ERA could be around where it was last year assuming he doesn’t have another terrible April, and he will put up enough innings to strike a ton of guys out. I’m a little worried with his weight/innings total, however he didn’t make a major spike last season. He’s always thrown a ton of innings at close to 300 pounds. He’s a freak, and the definition of ace pitcher.

12.Chase Utley – I’ve seen him dropping to late round 2 but I don’t know why. He was a monster last year in the first half hitting 23 homers with an xBA of .323. His bad second half was most likely do to a wrist injury which has since been surgically re pared. If he’s ready for spring he jumps into the top 5 most likely, but at most he misses a month which isn’t too bad. His upside is .320 with 40 bombs. Getting that from a second basemen is unreal. 

So there you have it. A few guys I left off:

Ryan Howard – He kills your batting average and doesn’t steal bases. His 50 homers and 130 RBIs are nice. But that’s all he gives you, and his skill set has steadily gone down the past few years. The league has figured this guy out, he won’t hit .280 ever again. 

Lance Berkman – Legit stud in the first half, solid but not spectacular in the second half. He’s 33 and he’s losing a lot of his power. probably wont hit 30 bombs next year, and that speed came out of no where. .310, 25 homers is good. But that’s more second round numbers. He just doesn’t stand out anywhere. 

Tim Lincecum – He’s an ace with a spectacular K rate, solid BB rate, solid GB rate. He could have cracked my top 12. But he’s a pitcher, and he wont win that many games. Plus a 50 innings pitched jump scares me. I’m not saying I don’t really like Lincecum, I just don’t think he’s a first round pick. 

Dustin Pedroia – Ummm 20-20, .300 average. Some runs and rbi. Ok.. Not a first rounder. 

Johan Santana – His K rate plummeted, and his ERA was EXTREMLY lucky. WARNING. He’s not Johan Santana anymore. I’m not saying he can’t get back his K rate, but he hasn’t yet. Until then, I’m not touching him pre 5th round, and even there that’s just because I know how good he can be. Upside is still 3.2 ERA, 220 Ks, 20 wins. But his downside is 4 ERA, 160 Ks, 15 wins. That’s just not going to cut it. 

Jimmy Rollins – Wont hit 30 homers again, 40 steals possible. .300 hitter. He just has no power and he’s not Jose Reyes so he’s not a first round pick.