The dangerous world of speculating: Albert Pujols

Remember back to March when everyone was avoiding Albert Pujols in fantasy baseball draft? Remember why? It was because of speculation that he would need Tommy John Surgery and miss the season. Not only has he played most of this season so far, it has been his best season since 2003.

Pujols has flat out raked all year. With a .349 batting average, 26 home runs, .459 OBP, and .621 SLG Pujols is easily the most valuable player in major league baseball. He has his highest average, OBP, and OPS+ since his 2003 season, as well as his highest offensive winning percentage (.828) since then (.832).

This season is showing people the dangerous world of speculating injuries. If you had drafted him and he had been out all year you would have looked like an idiot. If you pass him up and he hits like he has this season you feel stupid. So what should a fantasy owner do? Its a delicate balance, but at least in the case of Pujols people needed to remember one thing. This is Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and for now hes fine.

I think everyone needs to do more research before writing a guy off. If they had looked into it they would have found out that Pujols had played with this injury most of his career, and played at a high level. The reason everyone was making a big deal out of it was that it was POSSIBLE that the Cardinals MIGHT shut him down in August or September if they were out of it, and he would have surgery. How can you pass up on Albert Pujols on pure speculation? How can you just assume the Cardinals will be out of it? Do the research, think about it, really what the risk? Pujols plays from April to September at a high level, then he gets shut down.

So whats the lesson here? Don’t operate you team on assumptions or speculation. Look at the numbers, look at the real information, and make you decision.