Most people know not to trust ESPN for fantasy baseball. Ever. I actually don’t hate Matthew Berry at all. Contrary to popular opinion, he’s pretty smart and he obviously relies on numbers, not his gut instincts. However the numbers that the relies on aren’t necessarily the most advanced, and Bill James only knows how to fix the rest of his ESPN colleagues(minus Rob Neyer, he’s cool.) People will always go to ESPN (including me, they have really good free commissioner services), but the problem is when they read the fantasy advice and ratings. My job at Fantasy Bullpen is to save the world from ESPN, one owner at a time. So when I checked in on ESPN fantasy baseball’s homepage today, I saw an article considering early rankings for next seasons pitchers. The other is Jason Grey. Now I don’t have anything personal against Jason Grey, but he works for a company called Scouts Inc. so its really hard for me to like him. He didn’t screw up too bad with his top pick, Tim Lincecum is a great choice, but a little lower in the top ten we start to see why he’s a scout and not respectable sabermetrics expert.
The first major problem I see is that Roy Oswalt is in the top 10. He was not bad in 2008, at all, in fact he was pretty much the same as he was in 2007 if not a little better. But he wasn’t as good as his 2.10 second half ERA might have made people think. Over the full season he was able to get his strikeouts back (even better in the second half, this is a really good sign) and keep his tRA just under 4. He might still be a good option in fantasy leagues, but there are much better options that were put bellow him on the list.
Dan Haren. In my opinion, Haren should be in the top 2 or 3, on Grey’s list he is behind Oswalt all the way down at 9. Haren has a 3.29 tRA, less than a home run per nine innings, and almost five times as many strikeouts as walks. He is easily a top 3 guy, I might even like him better than Lincecum. He should not ever be behind Oswalt on any list.
Then there is by far my biggest problem. Chad Billingsley. Billingsley made huge strides in 2008, throwing himself into Cy Young contention in only his third major league season. He strikes out a ton of guys, doesn’t give up to many home runs, however his walk rate still needs work. I don’t think he should be i the category of a Lincecum or Haren, but you won’t believe where Grey put him. 24. He also put Rich Harden 21, and Ben Sheets 19. Grey seems to have no concept of the power of strikeouts, and actually getting outs. He is putting together a list of second tier aces of the past with good control and some poor strikeout numbers, then highlighting it with the sexy Lincecum pick.
I’ll take a look at the hitters list tomorrow, trust me, it won’t be pretty. Just remember, never trust ESPN.
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