Future Ace: Scott Baker

Last year I told everyone in sight to go out and get Chad Billingsley no matter what the cost. I pointed to his sick K rate, good GB%, and solid control and called him a future Cy Young winner. Well he didn’t win a Cy Young award, but he did win 16 games with 201 Ks and a 3.14 ERA. The point is that not only was he under the radar, but his skill set was so insanely good and he had such a good opportunity that he was worth overpaying for in a big way.

Well this year there are a few options. I love Joba Chamberlain, but he’s a big risk and you are going to have to pay a lot of money to grab a pitcher that likely pitches only 150 innings (if we’re lucky). I love Manny Para. I love Kevin Slowey. I love Jeremy Bonderman (ok he does scare me too.) But no one touches Scott Baker.

First of all, does Baker really qualify for this? He pitched 170 innings last year with a mid 3s ERA. He went 11-4 with 141 Ks. He only walked 40 guys. But he’s still very under the radar. I’m a LIMA plan guy, I don’t pay much for pitching (especially starters), but I would spend $15 on this guy.

Baker has tremendous control. Of all pitchers that threw at least 170 innings last year, Baker threw the second fewest balls, one fewer than Greg Maddux. (To be fair, Maddux also pitched about 20 more innings, so he is still the ultimate control artist.) Seriously, this guy has tremendous control. 844 balls in 170 innings means he threw less than FIVE balls every inning. Thats compared to just under 11 strikes. An 11-5 strike to walk ratio is good enough already, not to mention he can pitch a complete game and still only throw 135 pitches (ok, that’s pushing it.)

So Baker doesn’t throw many balls. Neither does Paul Byrd and we wouldn’t want him on our team. But Baker does so much more. First of all he induces a lot of swings. A LOT of swings. He ranked first in the league in swing% among pitchers with atleast 170 innings pitched. So he induces a lot of swings, he pitches to contact right? Nope. His K rate last year was a healthy 7.4. How does he do this? Simply put, he makes batters swing at the wrong pitches. He ranked third in the bigs in outside-the-zone swing% behind Jake Peavy, CC Sabathia, and Ervin Santana. All those pitchers have K rates well above 8, so we could see even more growth there.

If there is anything wrong with Baker, it’s that he’s an extreme flyball pitcher. That said, he pitches in a very favorable home ballpark with one of the leagues best defenses behind him. It really doesn’t hurt him all that much.

So what do I expect from him next year? That already fantastic BB rate will improve. That 1.7 first half BB rate is far more inline with his ballls/inning. By comparison, Kevin Slowey’s ball/inning rate is slightly higher than Baker, but his BB rate last year was well under 2. Expect the same from Baker. Overall I think a 3.4 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are both reasonable and obsenly good, and if he can pitch 200-230 innings he should be above 170 Ks. With that improving lineup…. 18-20 wins are possible, as is a top 5 Cy Young finish. This guy is the definition of fantasy ace, and he’s only 27.