Top 25 Prospects: 14-11.

January 9, 2010 by Alex Geshwind  

14. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York Mets - Mejia’s skill set has ace written all over it, and while he still needs to work on his command, he solidified a spot in the top-15 at AA last year, at the age of 19, posting a 8.87 K rate and a GB% of 56.3%. Players this young, and this advanced are very rare, as are guys that can strikeout a batter an inning and keep the ball on the ground 60% of the time. His fastball is amazing. It sits in the mid-90s, topping out around 98-99, with incredible movement, allowing him to induce those groundballs at such a high rate. He also throws a plus power changeup, and a slider, although the later needs quite a bit of work. While Mejia is a bit undersized, he’s well built and has yet to run into any durability issues. Some say he will end up as a reliever, but I think his long term future is at the front of the Mets rotation as the eventual heir to Johan Santana. He’s only 20, and probably starts 2010 at AA, but he should be in the big leagues at some point during the season. He needs to build up his innings and improve his command, but his stuff is off the charts, and his K/GB profile gives him incredible upside. MLB comparison: Felix Hernandez.

13. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins – I know most have Stanton a little higher than this, and it’s not that I don’t like him as a prospect. I just think people need to slow down a bit. Stanton has one elite skill at the moment, and that’s his power. There really is no denying his power at this point, with 67 homers the past two seasons and a career minor league ISO of .272. This is the kind of guy who someday could hit 45 homers a year. His bat is a bit raw at this point, as he has struggled significantly to make contact, looking somewhat overmatched in AA last season, with a K rate well over 30%. He isn’t an inpatient hitter, as he does take his fair share of walks, but the strikeouts are a problem. While Stanton’s athleticism is above average, he’s yet to really develop as a baserunner, with 3 steals in 6 tries last season, and while he has a great arm, his defense still needs some work. Overall, Stanton has a chance to be a very special player someday. His skill set is superb and all the flaws in his game are correctable. Remember, the guy’s only 20 years old. However, I think we need to slow down. He’s still a year or two away, and talk of a 2010 callup seems silly to me. He still needs a good amount of development time. Given the way the Marlins promote their prospects aggressively, I’m a bit worried. Should certainly make my top-5 next season, but at the moment, he’s still pretty far away. MLB comparison: Adam Dunn (much better defense).

12. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians - Last summer the Indians traded Victor Martinez to the Red Sox. Why? Because they have a young Victor Martinez knocking on the door of the big leagues. Santana, also a switch hitter, has destroyed minor league pitching for a couple of years now. In 2008, he hit .326 with a .999 OPS and 21 homers, following that up with a .290/.413/.530 line at AAA in ‘09, with 23 more long balls. A tremendous pure hitter, Santana has one of the better batting eyes in all of the minor leagues, walking more than 17% of the time last year. He waits for his pitch, keeping his strikeouts down and using his plus power to smash doubles and homers all over the ballpark. He’s actually a pretty good runner for a catcher, with 21 steals and 11 triples in his minor league career. On top of that, he’s a solid defender with a good arm, and should stay at the position, at least for now. Santana had surgery on a hand injury he suffered in winter ball, but he should be ready for the start of the season. While he may start the year in AAA, I doubt he’ll stay there too long. MLB comparison: Victor Martinez.

11. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers - Smoak, one of the top college bats coming out in 2008, dropped all the way to 11th pick in the draft, immediately becoming one of the best prospects in baseball. He’ll get compared to Mark Teixeira often, given that both were power hitting college first baseman taken in the top half of the first round by the Texas Rangers, and the comparison is somewhat valid. Smoak has a very advanced approach at the plate, walking almost 16% of the time in ‘09, and keeping the strikeouts at a reasonable level. His line drive stroke was on display in the first half, and he hit almost .330 at AA. However, after a promotion to AAA, he struggled quite a bit, with a .244 average and .336 wOBA. The power hasn’t shown up quite yet – only 12 homers last season – but I wouldn’t be too worried about that. Smoak also possess a good glove at first base. He’s a very good all around player, who can flat out hit, although he probably needs some more time in the upper minors. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him crack the Rangers lineup out of spring training though. MLB comparison: Mark Teixeira.

Top 10 coming soon. These can now be found in the “rankings” tab up top.

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