11:58 – Joel Sherman reporting Lee to Phillies is official.

11:56 - Lee to Phillies close to official.

11:55 – SI.COMs Jon Heyman reports Yankees are out of Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

11:49 - Nothing is official as of yet. A Fantasy Bullpen source is still confident that Lee to Philly is a “done deal,” with the conventional wisdom being that nothing is done yet, and that Lee has yet to make a decision, though he may be leaning towards the Phillies. Things should clear up on Tuesday. Or maybe not.

11:42 – Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes no deal has been reached, but that Lee will have to decide between his preferred team (the Phillies) and the team offering him the most money (the Yankees).

11:02 - A source in Philadelphia has indicated to Fantasy Bullpen that Cliff Lee is indeed heading to Philadelphia. This trade is far from official but rumors have been circulating for the past couple of hours. More information to come.

Lee will likely need to leave tens of millions of dollars over two years on the table to sign in Philly. The deal is rumored to be in the neighborhood of five years, 100 million dollars, far off from the seven year, 160 million dollar deal the Yankees offered Lee, and probably far less than what Texas has on the table. The Phillies traded Lee to the Seattle Mariners a year ago around this time.

What does this mean? Well, it means he’s probably not going to be a Yankee next year. Needless to say, this hurts his fantasy value. It kind of kills it.

First we can look at his power numbers. He hit 24 bombs in 2009, tying a career high at the age of 35. But this was in the new Yankee Stadium, a park perfectly suited for Damon’s left handed stroke. He wont repeat that in any other park.

You can also look at his position in the Yankees lineup, right in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, and right behind Derek Jeter. It doesn’t get much better than that.

So assuming Damon isn’t with the Yankees next year, you need to drop him down your boards quite a bit. He wont come close to reproducing 2009 anywhere else.

Over the past few years, the Angels have dominated the Yankees, knocking them out of the playoffs in 2002 and 2005. However, this Yankees team does seem to be different, and with home field advantage, they could get that monkey off their back.

Game one on Friday will feature CC Sabathia and John Lackey, game two Burnett and Weaver, game three Pettitte and Kazmir, and game four, Gaudin and Saunders.

The Dodgers also swept their series, and will face the winner of Philly/Colorado.

I’ll take the Yankees over the Angels, and then over the Dodgers in the World Series. Really, anything could happen, but these next few weeks are going to be great for baseball fans.

The catcher position has become very interesting over the past five months. While last year there was only one real elite option, and a lot of top level depth, we might have just the opposite situation going into 2010. Joe Mauer enjoyed what could be described as a breakout season, Victor Martinez bounced back putting him firmly in the top-3, Brian McCann was, well, Brian McCann. Add to that Mike Napoli who had another good season, is currently hitting about .295, and still has tons of power, and that’s your top-4 catchers. Past that though… it’s a crap shoot. Ryan Doumit, Geovany Soto, and Russell Martin, my fourth, fifth, and sixth ranked catchers last season, each had a massive drop off. Martin’s almost 300 games caught over a two year span caught up to him, and both Doumit and Soto got hurt. Matt Wieters had a difficult debut to say the least. Finally Jorge Posada will be 39 in 2010, meaning counting on him could be a bad idea. Any of these guys could put up elite fantasy production from the catchers position. But they all have major question marks.

If I had to identify a big sleeper this season, ironically enough, it would probably be Matt Wieters. He didn’t have a great first season, but he was ok. Based on his minor league production, with a year under his belt, this is the kind of guy who could hit .285 with 15 home runs. And his upside is much higher than that. In keeper leagues, he’s probably a top-5 catcher. In one season leagues, I’d consider taking him above several more established options. Either way, he’s a “post hype sleeper” if I’ve ever seen one. He may get over hyped simply because of the whole PHS label, but if he’s not, and your league mates forget how good he was in 08, he could be a steal.

As far as the league breakdown, three of my top four catchers currently reside in the AL, which gives that league a ton of top heavy depth. They also have the always solid Jorge Posada, the upside pick in Wieters, and another consistent performer in AJ Pierzynski. But there are also a ton of really, really open catcher spots at this time, and if you’re in an AL only league, it will be worth it to get at least one solid catcher next year.

In the NL, there is only one elite option – Brian McCann – meaning if you can get him at a reasonable price you have a huge leg up on everyone else. There are also several speculative picks – Ryan Doumit, Russell Martin, Geovany Soto to name a few. Going over the free agents next year, we have potentially a couple of former fantasy studs Pudge Rodriguez and JasonVaritek hitting the market. Neither should offer much fantasy value, although if Vmart moves to first and Varitek’s option in picked up, he could be a solid guy in AL only leagues. You could also see Bengie Molina switching teams, which would open up a spot for Buster Posey.

Bottom line, this season is a lot different than last year. There are a ton of decent options, but it isn’t a bad idea to jump on one of the top three or four early in mixed leagues. In single league formats, it’s the same deal. And elite option will give you a huge advantage over everyone else. Still, as I will detail bellow, Joe Mauer should not be considered until the late second round – and even that is a stretch. On to my (very early) top three tiers of catchers for the 2010 season:

Tier 1:

1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves

3. Victor Martinez, Boston Red Sox

Some would argue that Joe Mauer is in his own tier, but I completely disagree. If he put up 2009 again, and hit .360 with 35 homers, that would make him the clear cut #1 catcher, and a first rounder – probably a top five pick. But nothing in his past suggests he can sustain this, and every underlying stat suggests he can’t. He’s second in the league in “just enough” home runs, and his average HR distance is well bellow what it was last season. He’s made a power jump for sure. But it’s probably a jump from 10 homers to the 15-20 level. This huge year is more likely some good fortune than anything else. Pencil in Mauer for .330/15-20 homers/85/85, and he’s #1. But McCann and Martinez are both good for .295/25/90/70, meaning they aren’t all that far behind Mauer. And Mauer also carries an injury risk, as well as the risk that he falls back to 2008 levels, which would mean he’d probably be my #3 catcher. So he’s not head and shoulders above the rest.

Tier 2:

4. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles Angels

Last year I said that a 40 homer season could be in Napoli’s future. Well, in 2009 he hit more ground balls and his HR/FB rate dropped off considerably. He’s still not a .295 hitter, and now his power ceiling could be 25 home runs – not good for his value. He’s a safe bet to hit in the .270s, hit 25 home runs, and drive in a bunch of runs. But he doesn’t become an elite fantasy option until he starts hitting more flyballs again, or somehow lowers his K rate to make him a legit .290-.300 hitter, like #2 and #3 here.

Tier 3:

After the top-4, take a shot on Soto's upside.

5. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs

6. Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles

7. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers

8. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees

9. Ryan Doumit, Pitsburgh Pirates

Like Napoli, who is between tier 1 and tier 3, Soto is between tier 2 and tier 3. I’d clearly take Napoli ahead of him, but I’m not sure he fits in this tier either. His skills still look ok,  and I don’t see any reason to believe he can’t come back and hit .280/20 again. But we’ll have to see, he’s certainly coming off of a crappy 2009. The rest of this tier, much like Soto, has significant upside. These are catchers who many would have placed in their top-5 going into last season. But each one has a huge question mark. Posada had another solid season, but at 39, can he keep it up? Matt Wieters had a poor rookie year, but he was our #3 catcher last season. He’s got so much upside. Russell Martin, the #1 guy for a couple years back there, is still young enough that you doubt he’s really lost anything – he’s 26, and should be entering his prime. Plus he hits in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball. But his 2009 was nothing short of a disaster. Could he really have burned out this early in his career? I still like the upside pick, if you can get him late. Ryan Doumit is another guy who came into the year as a highly rated young catcher, off of his breakout campaign. He proceeded to have a horrible season. I still believe in him, but he really was awful in 2009, so that drops him a few spots.

Let’s start with some background on Delmon Young. Delmon is the hulking 6’3, 200 pound little brother of former Major League (and current Nationals AAA) slugger Dmitri Young. He was born on September 14, 1985, which makes him, quite surprisingly, only 23 right now. He was the #1 overall pick by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2003, a year after they took currently Major League star BJ Upton with the second overall pick.

Although he did not play that season,  his prospect status was almost immediately evident. When Baseball America came out with it’s rankings for the following season, he debuted on the list – at the #3 overall spot. This isn’t all that unusual, but it’s still a high ranking for a player with no pro experience. For example, 2008 first rounder Tim Beckham debuted on the list at 28 this season. The two players ahead of him – Joe Mauer and BJ Upton – are both All-star caliber players. That shows you how highly Young was thought of at the time.

Scouts loved pretty much everything about Young. He had tremendous power to all fields, a great line drive swing, could hit for average and power, had good range and a great arm in the outfield, and could run the bases. He was considered a can’t miss.

Young lived up to the hype initially. In his first pro season, 2004, he hit .322 with a 25 homers and 21 steals in the Sally league as an 18 year old. He had arrived on the professional scene in a big way. When the Baseball America rankings for the 2005 season came out he was again in the third spot, behind Mauer and current Cy Young candidate Felix Hernandez.

His 2006 season was even better. The 19 year old started at AA Montgomery, his home town team, and raked big time. In 84 games he hit .336 with a near 1.000 OPS, 20 homers, and 71 RBIs. Despite playing just over half the season, he would go on to win the Southern League MVP award. Once promoted to AAA Durham at only 19 years old, Delmon struggled a bit. He only hit .285, and his .303 OBP left something to be desired. But he was 19 and already in AAA. Not much to complain about there.

By that point Delmon was the top prospect in Major League Baseball, and Baseball America rated him as such going into the 2006 season. As a 20 year old Baseball America went out on a limb – well not really – by saying he should be in the big leagues at some point that season. A scout was quoted as saying “He (Delmon) can do whatever he puts his mind to do.”

But 2006 was a year of turmoil for Young. On April 26th Young was called out on strikes. Unhappy with the call, Young stared down the umpire, then, while walking towards the dugout, tossed his bat at the umpire hitting him in the chest. The infamous tossed bat incident cost Young 50 games, and limited how well he could develop at the minor league level. On the season he still hit .316, but his .341 OBP wasn’t great and he only hit 8 homers in limited playing time. Still, he made his MLB debut that August, more than a month before his 21st birthday. In 126 at bats Young hit for a .317 average but again didn’t draw enough walks. He did however hit a few homers, 9 doubles, and a triple to put up a decent SLG as a 20 year old in MLB. His future seemed bright.

Going into 2007 Baseball America ranked him as the third best prospect in MLB, his fourth top 3 appearance in 4 years in pro baseball.

His rookie season however did not go as planed. Although he continued to hit for a high average, .288 on the season, Young took only 26 walks on the season, and only hit 13 homeruns. He finished the year with an OPS below the league average.  Still he was 21 years old, and finished second in rookie of the year voting.

But the relationship between Young and the Rays was never easy. Young had attitude issues, and was upset with how long it took the Rays to move him up to the big leagues. That winter, the guy who had been a top 3 prospect in all of baseball every year of his pro career, was traded to the Twins, along with Brandon Harris, for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.

Young did not arrive as a Major League player in 2008, but he did improve. He, yet again, hit for a good average (.290), and his BB rate improved, raising his OBP to a solid .336 level, approaching the levels he posted in AAA in 06. It looked like he might be adjusting, at least in that respect. But his power was completely gone. In his first 60 games, Young did not go deep. However from June 6th to the end of the season, Young picked it up a bit. Through the rest of the year, he hit .304/.346/.443 with 10 homers and 18 doubles. As a 22 year old, he was a high BA guy, with emerging power and improving plate discipline.

But this season he has regressed back to his early 2008 state, even worse. For the first time as a pro he can’t even hit for a high batting average, hitting .256 on the season. His BB rate is down under 3%, his OBP under .300, and he’s hit only 2 homeruns so far.

The question is, how does a guy who was such a huge prospect for so long, a guy who had the scouting reports and minor league numbers to be a star, continue to struggle so greatly as a MLB player.

First let’s start with the one big positive – the batting average. The way he maintains such a constantly high BA is hard to understand. He makes contact about 80% of the time – solid but nothing more. And he has little power.

His first year, the big thing was, he really did have a great line drive stroke , hitting 21% line drives in his first season. That LD% has gone down to around 17% with the Twins though, taking away his best skill. In Minnesota, his GB% has spiked to around 54%, yet his BABIP is around .350 for his career. Hitting a bunch of hard liners and groundballs would explain his high BABIP to a degree though, so we can understand the average.

But his power is simply gone. His career minor league slugging percentage was well over .500. His career MLB slugging percentage currently sits at just over .400. While those grounders might help his batting average a bit, they are completely sapping his power. He also has no plate discipline at all. The average MLB player will swing about about 25% of pitches outside of the zone. Young, for his career, has swung at about 40% of them.

When you look at what pitches Young has struggled on, it’s the breaking pitches. At least in his first season he did great with fastballs. He was 12.3 runs above replacements on fastballs during the 2007 season. But he was also 14.9 runs below replacement against sliders. Since then he has improved dramatically against the slider, but his strength – fastballs – has now become a bit of a weakness. He just can’t hit anything now.

The thing is, if you want to know what went wrong, look at the difference between his rookie year and his career in Minnesota. In his first year he was a high BA, high line drive hitter with solid power, who dominated fastballs and struggled with breaking pitches. He was 21 though, and he had plenty of time to get better. He couldn’t draw a walk, but there was some promise. Since coming to Minnesota his BA has dropped, he’s not hitting nearly as many line drives, his power has gone away completely, and he’s not killing those fastballs.

My best guess as to what exactly happened to Delmon Young is complicated. Young was obviously misshandled by the Rays, who rushed him to the big leagues at 20 years old. He has so many holes in his game, and his attitude could be preventing him from fixing those holes. Young was a very good prospect, but there were warning signs. We knew he wouldn’t draw enough walks, we knew the power wasn’t exactly following him to the higher levels, and we knew he had attitude problems. Those first two problems followed him to the big leagues but almost looked manageable. The third problem may not be.

In the end maybe that scout was right. Delmon has all the talent in the world, but he will only be as good as he wants to be. He doesn’t seem motiviated in Minnesota, and when he doesn’t want to play well, he doesn’t play well. At times he’s a fastball murdering, line drive hitting, power hitter who doesn’t strike out all that much. But at times he looks lost at the plate, a light hitting outfielder who’s only in the lineup because of his arm.

This shows us just how unpredictable the minor leagues are. You can’t get much more “can’t miss” than Delmon Young. He had it all from a prospect standpoint. The scouting reports loved him and he dominated at every level. But he just hasn’t made it in the Majors. But here’s the thing. Young is 23 years old. Twenty three. He was born a month after David Price. And he’s certainly shown plenty of talent. Maybe, just maybe, it’s not time to give up just yet.  Delmon Young might just end up being as good as he wants to be.

For the first few years of his proffesional career Chri Dickerson struggled. He never hit more than 13 home runs and his BA was always well under .280. His K rate was always way to high, and although he had a nice looking OBP he just didn’t do enough to justify moving up.

But last season, in the second half, he made major progress. His .287/.384/.479 batting line, after struggling the first few months of the year got him called up to the big leagues. In 31 games Dickerson was golden. He put up .304/.413/.608 with 6 homers and 5 steals in those 31 games, and will certainly get a look for the starting LF job in spring. 

Now we can’t get to excited. Dickerson wasn’t anything special for a good portion of his minor league career. He is 27, and he strikesout way too much. But there’s something there. 

First of all he’s very speedy and his OBP has always been high, making him a great bet for 25 or more steals if he grabs a lineup spot. He stole 21, 26, and 23 bases during his 3 full minor league years, and given 550 ABs, he could really contribute there. He also has some power. Although his power numbers were never that high, his HR and SLG improved throughout his minor league career and those 6 late season homers look awfully good. 

Where you pick this guy depends on whether he gets the job. If he looks like the starter in spring, he’s a good 5th or 6th outfielder type with a very high celing. If not, he’s not worth a roster spot in mixed leagues. On draft day you may not know, although he’s worth a shot, and in NL only leagues is an outstanding pickup. I really think his upside is somewhere near 25-25, with a .280 average, and a decent number of runs at the top of the Reds order. 

Later this week – Brandon Wood, SS/3B, Angels.

In the past few weeks a few big moves have gone down. A trio of vetrans signed. The Red Sox signed John Smoltz, the Braves signed Derek Lowe, the Yankees signed Andy Pettite, and yes, Manny Ramirez is still a free agent. 

The Smoltz signing if obviously a high risk high reward deal. Smoltz was one of, if not the best pitcher in baseball before he got hurt last year. He was flat out dominant putting up 36/8 K/BB in 28 innings. Smoltz has beem similarly dominant for the past few years. In 2007 he put up a 197/47 K/BB ratio and in 2006 it was 211/55. The problem is his health. Coming into 2008 he had been healthy for a couple of years and we were hoping it would continue, however by May he was out for the season. Smoltz says he plans to pitch in relief again, which should help him stay healthy. I’m not sold on the idea as I think Smoltz could stay healthy as a starter and of course would contribute a lot more to the team. 

The Braves may have lost Smoltz but they did sign Derek Lowe. As I have detailed in previous posts I really like Lowe. He has the ability to keep the ball on the ground (and in the park) but can also put up a very good K/BB rate. He would probably have suffered moving from the NL to the AL but he’s staying in the NL and moving to another good pitchers park so his value should stay about the same. 

Finnaly the Yankees signed Andy Pettitte to a $5.5 million deal. That by itself is fine. Pettitte was a solid pitcher last year and he could take a rotation spot that would otherwise be filled by either Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes. Signing Pettite gives the Yankees the option to find out what they have in Hughes and Kennedy and figure out whot they want in the rotatoin. They just have more depth. The problem is that if he pitches 200 mediocore innings and doesn’t hit the DL he would make upwards of $11 million, something he is deffinetly not worth. I’m also worried this will land Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen, which would obviously not be the right move. Best case Joba and Hughes get about 15 starts each in that final spot and one of them fills in while Pettitte takes a stint on the DL.

And at 5:00 PM EST on ESPN (or ESPN2, not really sure which…) BBTN winter meatings special.